Sunday, July 26, 2015

2021 China's Five Year Plan

2021 China's latest 5-year plan - Stratfor > .
23-9-24 $6.5T Problem: BRI, Unproductive, Decaying Infrastructure | EcEx > .
23-8-9 Global Aging Institute: Xina's Accelerating Demographic Decline - Update > .
23-7-7 Xina, Japan - Impact of Demographic Decline - Real > .
23-6-29 New Chinese Demographic Data = Population COLLAPSE | PZ > .
23-1-20 Xina's 1st population drop in six decades - demographic crisis. | Digging > .
23-1-17 Xina Records First Population Drop in Decades | Focus > .
22-12-28 Too many people? Challenges of demographic change | DW > .
22-12-6 Xina’s Demographic crisis looms over Xi’s 3rd term | Peter Zeihan > .
22-12-5 China’s One-Child Policy Created Millions of Illegal Children - Uncensored > .
22-10-22 Xina's Population Has Peaked, 800 Million less by 2100 - gtbt > .
22-10-14 Young Xinese women remaining single by choice - Digging > .
22-8-17 Xina already in absolute population decline = coffins > cradles - Digging > .
22-2-18 How The One Child Policy Destroyed China - Versed > .
22-2-15 China’s Vulnerability | Peter Zeihan @ Fort Benning - geopop > .
22-2-4 Will China Grow Old Before it Becomes Rich? Demographics - TCO > .

China - Rare Earth Control

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Battle of Rare Earth Elements. Greenland Independence? - gtbt > .

China dominates the world's production and supply of rare earths - obscure elements that are vital for high tech manufacturing.

Rare earth elements (REEs) are a group of 15 elements referred to as the lanthanide series in the periodic table of elements. Scandium and yttrium, while not true REEs, are also included in this categorization because they exhibit similar properties to the lanthanides and are always found in the same ore bodies. REEs are key components in many electronic devices that we use in our daily lives, as well as in a variety of industrial applications, including electronics, clean energy, aerospace, automotive and defence.

The manufacturing of magnets represents the single largest and most important end use for REEs, accounting for 21% of total consumption.

Comment: There is nothing rare about rare earths, they are in everybody's backyard. The real issues are: 1) Finding them in commercially viable concentrations (>300 parts per million (ppm)), and 2) Environmental concerns from the dirty rare earth refining process. Just last month North Dakota announced a huge find of greater than 2,570 ppm in a state survey of coal seams that are no longer viable as an energy source. 

And the North Dakota State Geological Department has only taken 1,700 samples from a fraction of its coal seams. The US could easily find it has more rare earth reserves than China once you start looking for them. As recently as the 1980s the US produced about 90% of the World's rare earths. The problem is that cost-wise in terms of mining, extracting, and refining them and it's hard to compete with China not because they have huge reserves, but because Chinese producers have extremely low environmental standards and virtually bottomless supplies of Chinese government financing. It was this cost advantage, not the Chinese reserves which all but shut down US rare earth mining and refining operations in the 2000s. 

It should also be noted that the US is the second largest producer of mined rare earth products in the world after China. 43,000 MT vs 210,000MT for China in 2021. The irony is nearly all mined rare earth in the US are sent to China for the final refining steps (A new refinery in Mountain Pass, CA is just being brought online). So most of those Chinese exports to the US are actually US-mined rare earths that were sent to China for refining and then re-exported to the US, if the US refined the rare earth it currently mines it would largely be self-sufficient in meeting its needs.

Monday, July 20, 2015

India, Indian Ocean

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23-3-12 India controls Xina's main Chokepoint: Malacca Strait - Kamome > .

The Prime Ministers of the UK and India are to announce a roadmap towards closer links between India and UK. May 2021’s maiden deployment of the UK’s Carrier Strike Group will see Britain conducting joint exercises with India, securing passage through trade routes and attending trade events. It is part of the Integrated Review’s Indo-Pacific focus, as the UK aims to become more involved in the region, with the military at its forefront.

CCP's String of Pearls ..

India-China Border Conflicts

2021 What the China-India Border Dispute is Really About - BlQu > .
24-9-7 [India~Xina Border Disputes: No Direct Flights] - PolyMatters > .
> Afghanistan >>  >> Afghanistan >>>
23-12-23 Indian Defence Strategy: Forces, Potential, Procurement Disasters - Perun > .23-3-12 India controls Xina's main Chokepoint: Malacca Strait - Kamome > .
22-12-16 Xina vs India, Water Crisis, Xina Scared of India - BuBa > .
22-10-1 India Will Not Be The Next Xina - EcEx > .
22-8-23 Disruption in water cycle threatens the Earth | DW > .
22-3-24 India plays both sides with America and Russia - CaspianReport > .
22-2-15 DIME & China’s Taiwan Invasion? | Peter Zeihan @ Fort Benning Q & A > .
Peninsular Rivers of India | Geography - Amit Sengupta > .
> Pakistan >>
Playlist on Afghanistan - Amit Sengupta >> .

The boundary between China and India represents the longest contested border on the planet. Confrontations between the two sides have turned deadly in recent years, as China becomes increasingly aggressive in the region.

Situated in the pristine foothills to the south of the Himalayan Mountains, is the disputed region of Arunachal Pradesh. Largely controlled and administered by India, 84,000 square kilometer Arunachal Pradesh is contested by India and China.


Arunachal Pradesh (lit. 'Land of Dawn-Lit Mountains') is an Indian state in Northeast India. It was formed from the erstwhile North-East Frontier Agency (NEFA) region, and became a state on 20 February 1987. It borders the states of Assam and Nagaland to the south. It shares international borders with Bhutan in the west, Myanmar in the east, and a disputed border with China in the north at the McMahon Line. Itanagar is the state capital of Arunachal Pradesh. Arunachal Pradesh is the largest of the Seven Sister States of Northeast India by area. Arunachal Pradesh shares a 1,129 km border with China's Tibet Autonomous Region.

As of the 2011 Census of India, Arunachal Pradesh has a population of 1,382,611 and an area of 83,743 square kilometres (32,333 sq mi). It is an ethnically diverse state, with predominantly Monpa people in the west, Tani people in the center, Tai people in the east, and Naga people in the south of the state. About 45 tribes/sub-tribes live in the state. The main tribe of the state is Adi, Nyshi, Galo, Tagin, Apatani, and so forth. The Mishmi tribe has three sub-tribes, namely Idu-Mishmi, Digaru-Mishmi and Miju-Mishmi.

A major part of the state is claimed by both the People's Republic of China and the Republic of China as part of the region of South Tibet. During the 1962 Sino-Indian War, most of Arunachal Pradesh was captured and temporarily controlled by the Chinese People's Liberation Army. However, China withdrew back to the McMahon Line and returned Indian prisoners of war in 1963.

21-7-18 Tensions remain high as hopes dashed for breakthrough in China and India stalemate: Military build-up continues ‘like never before’ on both sides of 2,100-mile border despite high-level talks

It was described as a dialogue, the first high-level meeting in months between the Indian and Chinese foreign ministers to address the ongoing border aggressions that have pushed the two nuclear-armed countries to the brink of war.

In June 2020, following several months of rising tensions along the India-China border in the Himalayan region of Ladakh, 20 Indian soldiers and reportedly four Chinese soldiers were killed in the deadliest clash between the two countries in more than 50 years. Forbidden from firing weapons, the two sides instead fought on the icy mountain precipice of Galwan valley in medieval fashion, using spiked clubs and engaging in hand-to-hand combat, with several soldiers falling to their deaths.

The clash did not result in all-out declarations of war, but pledges of de-escalation and multiple rounds of failed military talks have instead been overshadowed by a year of troop, artillery and infrastructure buildup on both sides of the 2,100-mile border unlike at any other time in history, including when China invaded India in 1962.

Those hoping Wednesday’s meeting would help break a year-long stalemate ... were left unsatisfied. There was one point of agreement, however. As Wang Yi, the Chinese foreign minister, noted, “relations between India and China are still at a low point”.

India - Crisis of Governmental Agricultural Support

2020 India's huge farmer protests, explained - Vox > .
> India >>  > India v Xina >>
23-8-21 India’s HUGE water problem will cause a HUGE migration problem - GG > .
23-7-21 Brain Drain & Capital Issues Plague India's Tech Industry || Peter Zeihan > .
23-7-9 How Indian Government Works - KhAnubis > .

In November 2020, thousands of farmers marched from the northern states of India to Delhi to protest farming reforms passed by Prime Minister Modi’s government. Those protests have continued throughout the month of December and show little sign of letting up. The farmers have set up camp in and around the capital city to pressure the government to repeal the laws, but the government won’t budge. 

The government says these new laws will modernize farming by liberalizing the industry, but India’s farmers say it will be their downfall. Under these new policies, farmers will have fewer government protections and will likely lose the government-regulated markets and prices they have relied on for decades. 

To make matters even more difficult, all this is happening as India’s farmers grapple with a shrinking share of the economy that has contributed to a suicide crisis around the country.

If you want to read the three laws behind the protests, issued in late September, you can find them here:
https://ruralindiaonline.org/library/... .

For a deep dive into "mandis," or India’s regulated whole markets, check out the report “Understanding Mandis: Market Towns and the Dynamics of India’s Rural and Urban Transformations” by Mekhala Krishnamurthy:
https://casi.sas.upenn.edu/sites/defa... .

Here, you can explore data that shows the impact of the farming reforms on the whole markets since they were announced in June 2020:
https://agmarknet.gov.in/SearchCmmMkt... .

To learn more about the “Green Revolution” and the impact it had on India and its agriculture, check out this detailed report by the Journal of Ethnic Foods:
https://journalofethnicfoods.biomedce... .

If you want to explore India’s agricultural economy in relation to the country’s GDP over time, check out this data from the World Bank:
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/... .

Here is some more data compiled by the Government of India on India’s farmer suicide crisis: https://ncrb.gov.in/sites/default/fil... .

And a link to international suicide hotline numbers:
https://www.opencounseling.com/suicid... .

Finally, you can read our written explainer on Vox.com here:
https://www.vox.com/2020/12/2/2172664... .

Himalayas - China vs India ..
India, Indian Ocean ..
India-China Rivalry ..
India - Crisis of Governmental Agricultural Support ..

sī vīs pācem, parā bellum

igitur quī dēsīderat pācem praeparet bellum    therefore, he who desires peace, let him prepare for war sī vīs pācem, parā bellum if you wan...