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Monday, August 26, 2019
Saturday, August 24, 2019
Filter Room - Fighter Command
How RAF Prepared For Luftwaffe's Offensive | Battle Of Britain | Timeline > .
Filter Room - Eileen Younghusband > .
Boffins Beat Belligerents - tb >> .
40-8-13 Adlertag > . Fighter Command infighting - Trafford Leigh-Mallory vs Dowding, Park > .
Big Ego versus Dowding; nightfighters > .
Filter Room
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/history/battle-of-britain/11865303/The-Battle-of-Britain-as-it-happened-on-September-15-1940-live.html .
Boffins Beat Belligerents - tb >> .
40-8-13 Adlertag > . Fighter Command infighting - Trafford Leigh-Mallory vs Dowding, Park > .
Big Ego versus Dowding; nightfighters > .
Filter Room
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/history/battle-of-britain/11865303/The-Battle-of-Britain-as-it-happened-on-September-15-1940-live.html .
Evacuation Logistics
2021 Logistics of Evacuating Kabul - Wendover > .
40-5-25 Dunkirk Evacuation - Dynamo 40-6-4 ..Evacuation Plans & Pied Piper ..
Comment on Evacuating US citizens from Taiwan:
Every US Embassy has an RSO (Regional Security Officer) whose job it is to prepare contingency evacuation plans in the event that US citizens and key host nation personnel need to be evacuated. On the surface it may seem fairly simple in evacuating the Embassy personnel. There are USAID contractors, US humanitarian organizations, US citizens with dual passports, and expatriates living in the country. They are scattered all over the country, including in remote locations. The RSO works in very close coordination with the military through the attaches. The attaches are responsible for collecting much of the on the ground intelligence about the capacity of bridges, fuel storage and fuel connectors at airports, available rural landing strips, the condition of roads needed for evacuation, and the kind of security forces that may be necessary. ....
Every US Embassy has an RSO (Regional Security Officer) whose job it is to prepare contingency evacuation plans in the event that US citizens and key host nation personnel need to be evacuated. On the surface it may seem fairly simple in evacuating the Embassy personnel. There are USAID contractors, US humanitarian organizations, US citizens with dual passports, and expatriates living in the country. They are scattered all over the country, including in remote locations. The RSO works in very close coordination with the military through the attaches. The attaches are responsible for collecting much of the on the ground intelligence about the capacity of bridges, fuel storage and fuel connectors at airports, available rural landing strips, the condition of roads needed for evacuation, and the kind of security forces that may be necessary. ....
Taiwan has some 80,000 plus to evacuate. The good news is that it's a small island and helicopters can do a lot of the work as long as they are not in danger. But you have to put 80,000 people somewhere which is usually aboard ship because the transit distances for cargo aircraft are too long. And if Taiwan is under attack, that probably means our Naval forces are under attack as well. My point is that with my experience dealing with both Embassy RSO's and the military, no matter what plan they come up with, it ain't going to pretty and lots lives will be lost in the process if Taiwan is under attack. True, we may some advanced warning of a Chinese attack on Taiwan, but not enough time to evacuate all 80'000 plus Americans or dual passport holders. Many thousands will be left behind just like we left thousands of US citizens behind in Afghanistan, which the MSM ignored in order to protect incompetent Biden. After Biden left them all behind, only private organizations of US veterans were able to smuggle thousands of them out without the help of our military and State Department. It was a very dark day for the USA. I'll tell you what my plan would be. Create enormous caves in the mountains for the evacuees to go to with at least a years worth of provisions and accommodations where they would be safe until the US and other nations could evacuate them in small groups. In an evacuation of US citizens, their safety is paramount until there are sufficient resources to evacuate them. Unfortunately, I think Taiwan is so strategic to the US, Japan, the Philippines, Vietnam, the Malacca Striates, Indonesia, and even India and Australia that any attempt by China to invade Taiwan would be one hell of a bloody mess. God only know who would prevail.
Friday, August 23, 2019
Failed Logistics, Failed Strategy
22-3-5 Failed Logistics of Russia's Invasion of Ukraine - Wendover > .
24-2-18 Gallagher's Call for US Sealift Capacity Expansion vs Xina - Shipping > .
23-8-2 Single-Industry Towns' Armies | [Factory to Fodder] (subs) - Katz > .
23-7-12 Logistics. Ruscia's Fragility in Zaporizhia [Mapped] - gtbt > .
23-4-16 R-U Hybrid Warfare: P00paganda, cyber, hybrid methods - Perun > .
23-2-22 How Ukraine Saved Kyiv: Ruscian Missteps, Ukrainian Ingenuity - Spaniel > .
23-2-20 Peter Zeihan - Prigozhin's Wagner Group: Ruscia's Flunkies > .
23-2-3 [Demented Krumblin Conspiracy Poopaganda] (subs) - Katz > .
23-1-22 Politics Can Destroy Armies: Factionalism & R-U War - Perun > .
23-1-20 Wagner mercenary group = ‘transnational criminal organization’ > .
23-1-11 Prigozhin's Ambitions for Power - Vlad > .
22-12-23 Fiend behind Wagner PMC - Yevgeny Prigozhin - Artur > .
23-1-8 War Economies - Russia and Ukraine won't collapse tomorrow - Perun > .
22-10-21 Response if Russia uses a nuclear weapon in Ukraine? - J K-L > .
22-10-7 What If Pootin Nukes Ukraine? - OBF > .
22-9-4 6 Months of Ukraine War - Economics, Endurance, Energy War - Perun > .
22-8-18 Ruscism: World's Last Colonial Empire: Collapse or Survival - gtbt > .
22-8-3 Gas shortage and the war in Ukraine - Anders > .
22-4-19 Ukrainian Ground Forces 3D - AViz > .
22-4-17 Russian Arms Failing - VisPol > .
22-4-8 How (so many) Russian Tanks Are Being Destroyed - CoCa > .
22-4-7 Ukraine's battle of the airwaves | FT > .
22-4-4 Russia’s David vs Ukraine’s Goliath? Manpower woes - Binkov > .
22-3-31 The weapons Ukraine uses against Russia - CaspianReport > .
22-3-29 Military Drones; Decisive Factor in Russia-Ukraine war | DW > .
22-3-27 Are Tanks Obsolete? [Vlad's Disaster &] The Future of Warfare - nwyt > .
22-3-25 “Bear Trap” – War in Ukraine: 1 Month of Russian Invasion - Animarchy > .
22-3-21 Russia's Strategic Weaknesses in Ukraine - Kamome > .
22-3-21 "Sending their best" - Debunking myth of Russian 'cannon fodder' - Perun > .
22-3-19 [Тѕаr Rυnt dragging] Russiaheaded to strategic defeat in Ukraine - Caspian > .
22-3-19 [Тѕаr Rυnt dragging] Russia
22-3-5 All Bling, no Basics - Why Ukraine has embarrassed Russian Military - Perun > .
22-2-24 Global Power Rivalry | Michael Buckley > .
22-2-24 Global Power Rivalry | Michael Buckley > .
Thursday, August 22, 2019
Game Theory - Military, Economics
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24-8-13 Economics of War - CNBC I > .
24-2-26 PLARF Corruption Scandal: X-T? (Robinson Crusoe Fallacy) - Spaniel > .23-8-13 Anders & Perun - Theories of Victory & Ruscian Political [In] Stability > .
24-9-6 Wargaming in NATO 2024 - NATO ACT > .
Western Approaches Tactical Unit (WATU): Wargaming Battle of Atlantic - War > .
WATU School: Operation Raspberry: Allies Defeat U-Boat Tactics - War > .
WATU School: Operation Raspberry: Allies Defeat U-Boat Tactics - War > .
Wargaming & Battle of the Atlantic ..
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The Robinson Crusoe Fallacy: Where Probabilities Fail Us ...............
Mistaking the actions of a rational opponent as a given fact or as “nature” is termed as a Robinson Crusoe Fallacy by George Tsebelis. ... Using simple decision theory to understand the outcomes of a given situation, therefore, amounts to a fallacy. Rational actors don’t operate on absolute probabilities but rather form responses based on the actions of other players. The Robinson Crusoe fallacy provides an important frame of analysis of decisions and helps us understand the outcomes arising from the interaction of two rational players. It goes against our intuitive understanding of incentives and presents a new understanding of the role of policy in increasing compliance.The Robinson Crusoe Fallacy: Where Probabilities Fail Us ...............
- Game theory: Analysis of Conflict- Roger B. Myerson .
- The Abuse of Probability In Political Analysis: The Robinson Crusoe Fallacy Author(s): George Tsebelis Source: The American Political Science Association .
- Can road traffic law enforcement permanently reduce the number of accidents? – ScienceDirect .
- Are sanctions Effective? A Game-Theoretic Analysis .
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sī vīs pācem, parā bellum
igitur quī dēsīderat pācem praeparet bellum therefore, he who desires peace, let him prepare for war sī vīs pācem, parā bellum if you wan...
