Saturday, October 13, 2012

Private Truths, Public Lies (1995)

23-1-22 Pooti Walks into a Bar | Russian Opinion of Pooti (sub) - Katz > .23-1-18 Anti-war War Supporters | Russian Paradox (subs) - Katz > .21-10-27 Public Lies, Private Truths: How a Dystopian Future Begins - Felix Rex > .
22-12-20 Manipulating bloggers - VKontakte's Trap (subs) | Katz > .
22-12-5 Russians tired of poopaganda | Gardening beats Soloviev (subs) - MK > .
Ideological Dysfunction - Bonum V. Mālum >> .

Preference falsification is the act of communicating a preference that differs from one's true preference. The public frequently conveys, especially to researchers or pollsters, preferences that differ from what they truly want, often because they believe the conveyed preference is more acceptable socially. The idea of preference falsification was put forth by the social scientist Timur Kuran in his 1995 book Private Truths, Public Lies as part of his theory of how people's stated preferences are responsive to social influences. It laid the foundation for his theory of why unanticipated revolutions can occur. The concept is related to ideas of social proof as well as choice blindness.

According to the theory, when articulating preferences individuals frequently tailor their choices to what appears socially acceptable. In other words, they convey preferences that differ from what they genuinely want. Kuran calls the resulting misrepresentation "preference falsification". In his 1995 book, Private Truths, Public Lies, he argues that the phenomenon is ubiquitous and that it has huge social and political consequences. These consequences all hinge on interdependencies between individuals' decisions as to what preference to convey publicly. A person who hides his discontent about a fashion, policy, or political regime makes it harder for others to express discontent.

One socially significant consequence of preference falsification is widespread public support for social options that would be rejected decisively in a vote taken by secret ballot. Privately unpopular policies may be retained indefinitely as people reproduce conformist social pressures through individual acts of preference falsification.

In falsifying preferences, people hide the knowledge on which their true preferences rest. In the process, they distort, corrupt, and impoverish the knowledge in the public domain. They make it harder for others to become informed about the drawbacks of existing arrangements and the merits of their alternatives. Another consequence of preference falsification is thus widespread ignorance about the advantages of change. Over long periods, preference falsification can dampen a community's capacity to want change by bringing about intellectual narrowness and ossification.

The first of these consequences is driven by people's need for social approval, the second by their reliance on each other for information.

Kuran has applied these observations to a range of contexts. He has used the theory developed in Private Truths, Public Lies to explain why major political revolutions catch us by surprise, how ethnic tensions can feed on themselves, why India's caste system has been a powerful social force for millennia, and why minor risks sometimes generate mass hysteria.

The idea of preference falsification has been studied by a number of social scientists. Economist Robert H. Frank reviewed Timur Kuran's book and offered his own thoughts on the political economy of preference falsification. William Davis considered preference falsification within the economics profession.

According to a 2020 study, the vast majority of young married men in Saudi Arabia express private beliefs in support of women working outside the home but they substantially underestimate the degree to which other similar men support it. Once they become informed about the widespread nature of the support, they increasingly help their wives obtain jobs.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preference_falsification .

Private Truths, Public Lies: The Social Consequences of Preference FalsificationTimur Kuran .

Preference falsification, according to the economist Timur Kuran, is the act of misrepresenting one's wants under perceived social pressures. It happens frequently in everyday life, such as when we tell the host of a dinner party that we are enjoying the food when we actually find it bland. In Private Truths, Public Lies Kuran argues convincingly that the phenomenon not only is ubiquitous but has huge social and political consequences. Drawing on diverse intellectual traditions, including those rooted in economics, psychology, sociology, and political science, Kuran provides a unified theory of how preference falsification shapes collective decisions, orients structural change, sustains social stability, distorts human knowledge, and conceals political possibilities.

A common effect of preference falsification is the preservation of widely disliked structures. Another is the conferment of an aura of stability on structures vulnerable to sudden collapse. When the support of a policy, tradition, or regime is largely contrived, a minor event may activate a bandwagon that generates massive yet unanticipated change.

In distorting public opinion, preference falsification also corrupts public discourse and, hence, human knowledge. So structures held in place by preference falsification may, if the condition lasts long enough, achieve increasingly genuine acceptance. The book demonstrates how human knowledge and social structures co-evolve in complex and imperfectly predictable ways, without any guarantee of social efficiency.

Private Truths, Public Lies uses its theoretical argument to illuminate an array of puzzling social phenomena. They include the unexpected fall of communism, the paucity, until recently, of open opposition to affirmative action in the United States, and the durability of the beliefs that have sustained India's caste system.

Puzzles

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The 1920s Crossword Craze - The1920sChannel > .

Thursday, October 11, 2012

Rascist Troll Farms

22-4-20 How Russian Troll Farms Targeted Ukraine and the U.S. > .
23-10-5 Toxic Ruscian P00paganda in Ukraine: Weak West, Negotiations - Anna > .
23-9-20 [DIP Propaganda - Seeding, Harvesting, Amplification] - McBeth > .
23-9-4 Backbone of P00tinism | [P00's P0wer: Scapegoating, Fear] (subs) - Katz > .
23-8-29 Dictatorships: From Spin to Fear | Ruscist Regression (subs) - Katz > .
23-8-11 Yandex as Most Dangerous Company | Co-Founder (subs) - Katz > .
23-7-23 Defense Ministry vs Reality | P00pagandistic LIES (subs) - Katz > .
23-6-22 [Ruscist Cognitive Dissonance and Virtuous Self-Delusion] (subs) - Katz > .
23-5-28 Debunking P00paganda - Ruscist R-U War LIES - K&G > .
23-5-8 [Ruscist P00paganda] Ruses: Blatant Fabrications (subs) - Katz > .
23-4-16 R-U Hybrid Warfare: P00paganda, cyber, hybrid methods - Perun > .
23-4-10 Ukraine war deepfakes: alarming advanced p00paganda - Times > .
23-2-25 “Ruscians fell victim to their own propaganda” | Starsky | Times > .
23-2-10 Political Apoothy | Blame Game, Coping Strategies (subs) - Katz > .
23-2-8 Ruscia’s Zociopathy | Once “decent” people провоенный (subs) - Katz > .
23-1-26 Ruscist poopaganda 0 : Ukrainian propaganda 1 - Forces > .
23-5-14 Month 10 | Fake News: Ruscian Poopaganda for Beginners | ARTE > .
22-12-28 Beware: Soft Ruscist Poopaganda and Fake YTers = Danger - Anna > .
22-12-18 Poopaganda calls for "people's war" | [Message Shift] (subs) > .
22-12-5 Russians tired of poopaganda | Gardening beats Soloviev (subs) - MK > .
22-11-27 Poopaganda: Soviet Future Faking to "Correct Past" (subs) - MK > .
22-11-19 Splinternet - Xina 1st of 35+ Countries Leaving Global Internet - Tech > .
22-11-17 Poopagandistic malice | [Demented] reactions to Kherson (subs) - Katz > .
22-4-26 Social media & war – Online battlefield, Russia vs Ukraine > .
22-3-20 Inside the secret Russian troll farms targeting Ukraine | Kremlin File > .

No surprises here: "UK-funded research has exposed the Kremlin's use of a troll factory to spread lies through disinformation campaigns, designed to manipulate the public about Russia's illegal war in Ukraine." – Ministry of Defence, 22-5-1.

Wednesday, October 10, 2012

Sentinel State (2024)

The era when observers thought that democratic reform in China might be possible is long gone. In fact, surveillance and repression have become even more prevalent in the past two decades, and they continue to grow. The current trend is toward the use of sophisticated technology, including artificial intelligence, but the system is built on a bureaucratic, labor-intensive infrastructure dating from the Mao years. ... A sizable portion of the surveillance occurs at the grassroots level, with battalions of informants reporting to local police. Above that level is a series of agencies that analyze the data and undertake detailed surveillance and coercion when needed, and high-level Communist Party committees provide oversight and coordination. The system adds up to “preventive repression,” aimed at identifying and dealing with dissent before it can become organized opposition. Most of China’s population seems willing to accept ongoing surveillance in return for social stability and economic growth. The system is extremely expensive, but Xi Jinping and his coterie are willing to pay it. However, the size and effectiveness of the surveillance system might blind leaders to other threats, such as corruption and socioeconomic inequities

Pei is a professor of government at Claremont McKenna College and author of China’s Crony Capitalism and China’s Trapped Transition. Pei reveals the vast machinery of surveillance and repression in China, fueled by leaders’ fear, distrust, and paranoia.



"Shadow Play" X DISinformation

23-12-7 5 lessons West should learn versus XiXiP - Lei > .
23-12-15 Shadow Play: X’s ‘Massive AI DISinformation Strike’: 120m Views - Update > .
Societal Manipulation 

XiXiP LIES & Other Lessons:
2:18 The [XiXiP] is a quasi-religious organization
3:37 The [XiXiP] thrives amid chaos and conflict
4:46 Xina’s economic reforms didn’t gentrify the [XiXiP]
6:15 Deng’s economic reforms wreaked havoc
8:49 The U.S. didn’t learn from past mistakes

sī vīs pācem, parā bellum

igitur quī dēsīderat pācem praeparet bellum    therefore, he who desires peace, let him prepare for war sī vīs pācem, parā bellum if you wan...