Tuesday, March 17, 2015

Lebanon's Sectarian Disaster

2021 How Lebanon's Collapse could lead to [another] Civil War - My Take > .

00:00 Intro
00:57 A Nation in Free Fall
09:02 A Sectarian System
16:29 The Drums of War
20:30 A United Voice 

Weak Lebanon grows weaker. Beset by fuel shortages, power outages and a collapsing economy, a wave of violence has hit the country in response to the work of judge Tarek Bitar who is investigating those responsible for the Beirut blast that rocked the capital a year ago. With the violence quickly organising itself along sectarian lines, many fear the return of another civil war. What is it about Lebanon’s sectarian political system that turned it from the Switzerland of the Middle East to a nation on the brink of collapse? How can the Lebanese people rid their nation of a corrupt political class? And is the country on the brink of another sectarian civil war?

Monday, March 16, 2015

MBZ

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The Most Powerful Arab Ruler Isn’t M.B.S. It’s M.B.Z.: Prince Mohammed bin Zayed expanded the U.A.E.’s power by following America’s lead. He now has an increasingly bellicose agenda of his own. And UNpresident Kleptocrat-in-Cheat seems to be following him.

"Prince Mohammed, now 58, crown prince of Abu Dhabi and de facto ruler of the United Arab Emirates, is arguably the most powerful leader in the Arab world. He is also among the most influential foreign voices in Washington, urging the United States to adopt his increasingly bellicose approach to the region.

Prince Mohammed is almost unknown to the American public and his tiny country has fewer citizens than Rhode Island. But he may be the richest man in the world. He controls sovereign wealth funds worth $1.3 trillion, more than any other country.

His influence operation in Washington is legendary. His military is the Arab world’s most potent, equipped though its work with the United States to conduct high-tech surveillance and combat operations far beyond its borders.
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For decades, the prince has been a key American ally, following Washington’s lead, but now he is going his own way. His special forces are active in Yemen, Libya, Somalia and Egypt’s North Sinai. He has worked to thwart democratic transitions in the Middle East, helped install a reliable autocrat in Egypt and boosted a protégé to power in Saudi Arabia.

At times, the prince has contradicted American policy and destabilized neighbors. Rights groups have criticized him for jailing dissidents at home, for his role in creating a humanitarian crisis in Yemen, and for backing the Saudi prince whose agents killed the dissident writer Jamal Khashoggi.

Yet under the Crook-in-Cheat Badministration, his influence in Washington appears greater than ever. He has a rapport with UNpresident Follow-the-Money, who has frequently adopted the prince’s views on Qatar, Libya and Saudi Arabia, even over the advice of cabinet officials or senior national security staff.

Western diplomats who know the prince — known as M.B.Z. — say he is obsessed with two enemies, Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood. Agent Orange has sought to move strongly against both and last week took steps to bypass congressional opposition to keep selling weapons to both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates."

Muslim Brotherhood - Origins


> Hezbollah >>  > Iran - Allies, Enemies >>
Hezbollah cfr Hezbollah ('Party of Allah' or 'Party of God') is a Lebanese Shia Islamist political party and militant group, led since 1992 by its Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah.

> Houthis >>

Sunday, March 15, 2015

Nagorno-Karabakh

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23-9-20 Unresolved questions in the ongoing Nagorno-Karabakh conflict | DW > .
23-9-20 Republic of Artsakh Surrenders | Ruscian "peacekeepers" attacked - Balkan > .
23-9-19 Azerbaijan launches military operation in Nagorno-Karabakh | Balkan > .
23-9-10 Armenia or Azerbaijan? Mapping stance of European countries - Balkan > .
22-11-25 TURKIC STATES | A New Geopolitical Bloc? - J K-L >> .
22-9-23 ARMENIA-AZERBAIJAN | Is a New War Coming? - J K-L > .
22-9-13 Armenia accuses Azerbaijan of advancing into its territory | DW > .
20-7-24 Armenia-Azerbaijan | Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict Explained - J K-L > .
18-12-17 Armenia vs Azerbaijan: Whose military would win? - Binkov > .
History of Armenia Summarized - Epimetheus > .>> Prof James Ker-Lindsay >>
ARMENIA, AZERBAIJAN AND NAGORNO-KARABAKH - Prof J Ker-Lindsay >> .
Nagorno-Karabakh - PrTe >> .




Renewed hostilities have been raging between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces around the contested territory of Nagorno-Karabakh in the southern Caucasus.

In scale and scope, the fighting that broke out on Sunday surpasses the periodic escalations of recent years, involving heavy artillery, tanks, missiles and drones.
So far there are more than 100 confirmed deaths among civilians and Armenian combatants killed in action. Azerbaijan does not release data on its military losses, but these can be assumed to be at least as high.

The fighting appears to be driven by an attempt by Azerbaijani forces to recapture swathes of territories occupied by Armenian forces in the Karabakh war after the Soviet Union collapsed. Hundreds of thousands of ethnic Azeris were displaced from these areas in 1992-4.
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How might events play out?

Rapid and consolidated military success, either through recapture of significant territory by Azerbaijan, or the repelling of Azerbaijani operations by Armenian forces, could open up scope for a ceasefire, but trigger domestic instability in whichever side fares worse.

The longer that fighting goes on, and/or if one side is seen to be losing in a more protracted struggle, the more likely it is that Russia and Turkey will face difficult choices over whether to become more involved.


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20-9-29 Armenia says one of its fighter jets was shot down by a Turkish jet in a major escalation of the conflict over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. The Armenian foreign ministry said the pilot of the Soviet-made SU-25 died after being hit by the Turkish F-16 in Armenian air space.

Turkey, which is backing Azerbaijan in the conflict, has denied the claim. Azerbaijan has repeatedly stated that its air force does not have F-16 fighter jets. However, Turkey does. 

Nearly 100 people, including civilians, have died in three days of fighting over the disputed mountainous region. The enclave is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan, but has been run by ethnic Armenians since a 1988-94 war between the two former Soviet republics.

The fighting that started three days ago now appears to be spilling out of Nagorno-Karabakh, with Armenia and Azerbaijan trading accusations of direct fire into their territories. They also blame each other for starting the conflict.

While Turkey openly backs Azerbaijan, Russia - which has a military base in Armenia but is also friendly with Azerbaijan - has called for an immediate ceasefire.

sī vīs pācem, parā bellum

igitur quī dēsīderat pācem praeparet bellum    therefore, he who desires peace, let him prepare for war sī vīs pācem, parā bellum if you wan...