Saturday, December 28, 2019

Alliances ⇨ WW1 Insanity

.
Did Alliances lead to the Great War? - K&G > .
23-5-14 French Defence Strategy & Rearmament - strategic autonomy, Hx - Perun > .
22-7-26 France's Hx & Geostrategic Choices in Central Europe - gtbt > .
> Balkans >>

The creation of a unified Germany in 1871 disturbed the old 'balance of power' in Europe. By 1914, Europe was an armed camp; its politics dominated by two rival alliances

Fear of Germany encouraged France and Russia to form an alliance in 1894. This pushed Germany into closer alliance with its neighbour, the Austro-Hungarian Empire. The members of these rival power blocs maintained mass armies through compulsory military service. Rapid developments in military technology forced them to spend huge sums on these armies.

The Triple Alliance was an agreement between Germany, Austria-Hungary, and Italy. It was formed on 20 May 1882 and renewed periodically until it expired in 1915 during World War I. Germany and Austria-Hungary had been closely allied since 1879. Italy was looking for support against France shortly after it lost North African ambitions to the French. Each member promised mutual support in the event of an attack by any other great power. The treaty provided that Germany and Austria-Hungary were to assist Italy if it was attacked by France without provocation. In turn, Italy would assist Germany if attacked by France. In the event of a war between Austria-Hungary and Russia, Italy promised to remain neutral. The existence and membership of the treaty were well known, but its exact provisions were kept secret until 1919.

When the treaty was renewed in February 1887, Italy gained an empty promise of German support of Italian colonial ambitions in North Africa in return for Italy's continued friendship. Austria-Hungary had to be pressured by German chancellor Otto von Bismarck into accepting the principles of consultation and mutual agreement with Italy on any territorial changes initiated in the Balkans or on the coasts and islands of the Adriatic and Aegean seas. Italy and Austria-Hungary did not overcome their basic conflict of interest in that region despite the treaty. In 1891, attempts were made to join Britain to the Triple Alliance, which, though unsuccessful, were widely believed to have succeeded in Russian diplomatic circles.

Shortly after renewing the Alliance in June 1902, Italy secretly extended a similar guarantee to France. By a particular agreement, neither Austria-Hungary nor Italy would change the status quo in the Balkans without previous consultation.

On 18 October 1883 Carol I of Romania, through his Prime Minister Ion C. Brătianu, had also secretly pledged to support the Triple Alliance, but he later remained neutral in the First World War due to viewing Austria-Hungary as the aggressor. On 1 November 1902, five months after the Triple Alliance was renewed, Italy reached an understanding with France that each would remain neutral in the event of an attack on the other.

When Austria-Hungary found itself at war in August 1914 with the rival Triple Entente, Italy proclaimed its neutrality, considering Austria-Hungary the aggressor. Italy also defaulted on the obligation to consult and agree to compensations before changing the status quo in the Balkans, as agreed in 1912 renewal of the Triple Alliance. Following parallel negotiation with both Triple Alliance (which aimed to keep Italy neutral) and the Triple Entente (which aimed to make Italy enter the conflict), Italy sided with the Triple Entente and declared war on Austria-Hungary.

American Empire

.
American Empire, United States Alliances and Partnerships - Costas > .
24-9-6 How the Atlantic Ocean made the modern world - Caspian > .

American Empire, United States Alliances and Partnerships: 

The United States maintained a hemispheric defense policy relative to European influence under the Monroe Doctrine since 1823, which became increasingly interventionist with the Roosevelt Corollary in 1904. During the 1930s the United States had been alarmed by Axis overtures toward military cooperation with Latin American governments; apparent strategic threats against the Panama Canal were of particular concern. These were discussed in a series of meetings of the International Conference of American States and the 1936 Inter-American Conference for the Maintenance of Peace.

1947, Rio Pact - Inter-American Treaty of Reciprocal Assistance (commonly known as the Rio Treaty, the Treaty of Reciprocal Assistance, or by the Spanish-language acronym TIAR from Tratado Interamericano de Asistencia Recíproca) is an agreement signed in 1947.
1948Organization of American States (OAS)
1951, ANZUS
(Bilateral Alliances, African states)
Major non-NATO Allies (MNNA), 
(2007, The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QSD), colloquially the Quad (sometimes stylised as QUAD despite not being an acronym), is a strategic security dialogue between Australia, India, Japan, and the United States that is maintained by talks between member countries.)
2021, AUKUS.

Inter-American Peace Force
North Atlantic Treaty Organization .
Military alliance .
SICOFAA .
Mutual Defense Assistance Act .
Mutual Security Act .
Latin America–United States relations .
Inter-American Conference on Problems of War and Peace of 1945 .

Thursday, December 26, 2019

CSTO / ОДКБ - Collective Security Treaty Organization



The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO; Организация Договора о коллективной безопасности: Organizatsiya Dogovora o kollektivnoy bezopasnosti; ОДКБ: ODKB) is an intergovernmental military alliance in Eurasia that consists of select post-Soviet states. The treaty had its origins to the Soviet Armed Forces, which was gradually replaced by the United Armed Forces of the Commonwealth of Independent States. On 15 May 1992, six post-Soviet states belonging to the Commonwealth of Independent StatesRussia, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan—signed the Collective Security Treaty (also referred to as the Tashkent Pact or Tashkent Treaty).

Three other post-Soviet states—Azerbaijan, Belarus, and Georgia—signed in 1993 and the treaty took effect in 1994. In 1999, six of the nine—all but Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Uzbekistan—agreed to renew the treaty for five more years. In 2002 those six agreed to create the Collective Security Treaty Organization as a military alliance.

The CSTO charter reaffirmed the desire of all participating states to abstain from the use or threat of force. Signatories would not be able to join other military alliances. The CSTO holds yearly military command exercises for the CSTO nations to have an opportunity to improve inter-organization cooperation. A CSTO military exercise called "Rubezh 2008" was hosted in Armenia, where a combined total of 4,000 troops from all seven constituent CSTO member countries conducted operative, strategic and tactical training with an emphasis towards furthering efficiency of the collective security element of the CSTO partnership.

The largest of such exercises was held in Southern Russia and central Asia in 2011, consisting of more than 10,000 troops and 70 combat aircraft. In order to deploy military bases of a third country in the territory of the CSTO member-states, it is necessary to obtain the official consent of all its members. It also employs a "rotating presidency" system in which the country leading the CSTO alternates every year.
Comment:
The Central Asian Republics are members of several regional organizations whose stated aim is promoting multilateral solutions to security and economic challenges. These groupings that include the Central Asian states are receiving increased scrutiny around the world. The Collective Security Treaty Organization, formed under the framework of the Commonwealth of Independent States, serves as a mutual defense alliance among Russia, Belarus, Armenia and the four Central Asian states except Turkmenistan. The Eurasian Economic Community comprises a similar grouping of states but focuses on economics, including the creation of a common market, border security standards, a customs union, standardized currency exchange and joint programs on social and economic development. Both of these organizations are strongly supported by Russia and capitalize on residual political, economic, and bureaucratic linkages among former Soviet republics.

CPTPP - Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership

21-9-17 China Applies to Join Trans-Pacific Trade Deal - Bloomberg > .
23-11-23 How much federal debt can Canada carry? | About That | CBC > .
22-10-15 Japan - national debt, liquidity trap vs artificial inflation - VisEco > .
22-9-24 Xina's and Australia’s power plays in the Pacific - Caspian > .
22-8-3 Stagnating Economy of Canada - EcEx > .
22-7-21 Xina losing international trust, 10 Pacific nations rebuff joint agreement - CR > .
22-7-6 IISS Special Lecture: Australia, ASEAN and Southeast Asia > . 
22-3-28 China's Economic Rise—End of the Road - cfr > .
22-3-25 US & World Should Have A 'Coherent, Bipartisan' Strategy For China - Rudd > .
22-3-1 Tim Harcourt | Russia's Commodity-Heavy Sanctions & Australia - rh > .
2022 Singapore: Most Militarized Country in World - VisPol > .

The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) is a trade agreement between 11 nations: Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam. The founding members signed the Pacific trade pact in March 2018 in Santiago, Chile. Between them, they generate 13% of the world's income.

The UK is the first non-founding country to join, and will be its second biggest economy after Japan. It takes the value of the new grouping to £11 trillion.

The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), also known as TPP11 or TPP-11, is a trade agreement among Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam. It evolved from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which never entered into force due to the withdrawal of the United States. The eleven signatories have combined economies representing 13.4 percent of global gross domestic product, at approximately US$13.5 trillion, making the CPTPP one of the world's largest free-trade areas by GDP, along with the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement, the European Single Market, and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership.

The TPP had been signed on 4 February 2016, but never entered into force, as the U.S. withdrew from the agreement soon after the election of UNpresident DJT. All other TPP signatories agreed in May 2017 to revive the agreement, with Japan widely reported as taking the leading role in place of the U.S. In January 2018, the CPTPP was created as a succeeding agreement, retaining two-thirds of its predecessor's provisions; 22 measures favored by the US, but contested by other signatories, were suspended, while the threshold for enactment was lowered so as not to require American accession.

The formal signing ceremony was held on 8 March 2018 in Santiago, Chile. The agreement specifies that its provisions enter into effect 60 days after ratification by at least half the signatories (six of the eleven participating countries). Australia was the sixth nation to ratify the agreement, on 31 October 2018, and it subsequently came into force for the initial six ratifying countries on 30 December 2018.

The chapter on state-owned enterprises (SOEs) is unchanged, requiring signatories to share information about SOEs with each other, with the intent of engaging with the issue of state intervention in markets. It includes the most detailed standards for intellectual property of any trade agreement, as well as protections against intellectual property theft against corporations operating abroad.

21-9-17 China applies to join key Asia-Pacific trade pact: 

China has applied to join a key Asia-Pacific trade pact as it attempts to strengthen its position in the region. The move comes the day after a historic [AUKUS] security deal between the US, UK and Australia was unveiled. China's announcement that it has officially applied to join the CPTPP comes the day after the historic AUKUS security pact, in what has been seen as an effort to counter Beijing's influence in the Asia-Pacific region. The AUKUS pact will allow Australia to build nuclear-powered submarines for the first time, using technology provided by the US and the UK. The deal, which will also cover Artificial Intelligence and other technologies, is Australia's biggest defence partnership in decades, analysts said.

The pact that eventually became the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), was created by the US to counter China's influence. However, former UNpresident DJT pulled the US out of it in 2017.

In May 2020, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said that China is willing to consider joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping said at an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit November 2020 that China would also “actively consider” joining the CPTPP. In response, trade experts interpreted China’s position as having a “different strategic significance” from an actual intent to join. Their analysis is that China aims to keep the US from joining and delay the CPTPP’s expansion into a larger-scale framework.

James Kane, a researcher with the UK’s Institute for Government, recently told Reuters that the CPTPP has a political purpose, as well as an economic one, in the sense that it aims to present a bloc as a common front — representing 13.5% of the global market economy — in order to create new rules countering China’s practices of disrupting global trade norms, including its subsidies to state enterprises.

Analysts also predicted that the existing members would be very likely to exercise veto powers if China does apply later on to join the CPTPP. The agreement of all 11 members is required for additional members to join.

On 16 September 2021, China submitted a formal application with New Zealand to join the CPTPP.

The original Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) was promoted by then-President Barack Obama as an economic bloc to challenge China's increasingly powerful position in the Asia Pacific. After DJT pulled the US out of the deal, Japan led negotiations to create what became the CPTPP. The CPTPP was signed in 2018 by 11 countries, including Australia, Canada, Chile, Japan and New Zealand.

In June 2021, the UK formally launched negotiations to join the CPTPP, while Thailand has also signalled interest in joining the agreement.

Joining the CPTPP would be a significant boost for China, especially after it signed up to a different free trade agreement with 14 countries - called the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) - in November 2020. RCEP is the world's largest trading bloc, with South Korea, China, Japan, Australia and New Zealand among its members.

Chinese commerce minister Wang Wentao said the world's second largest economy had submitted its application to join the free trade agreement in a letter to New Zealand's trade minister, Damien O'Connor. New Zealand acts as the administrative centre for the pact.

Tuesday, December 24, 2019

EaP - Eastern Partnership - EU

22-11-27 Polish military modernisation & buying Korean kit - Perun > .
22-9-7 Intermarium - Poland Ukraine Baltics | George Friedman > .
22-7-22 Poland could become strongest land force in the EU - Binkov > .
22-7-21 How the economy of Russia is dying (English subtitles) - Максим Кац > .
22-7-4 Intermarium: Is Strongest Union In Europe About To Appear? - Complete > .
22-6-30 Russia's Cyberattack on Lithuania ~ NATO's Deeper Problems - Spaniel > .
22-6-28 Jacek Bartosiak - Kaliningrad, Suwalki Gap - Ruscia, Poland, Ukraine - S&F > .
22-6-24 Russia's Kaliningrad Problem with Lithuania = Ukraine 2.0-ish - Spaniel > .
22-6-21 Kaliningrad at center of dispute between Russia and Lithuania | DW > .
22-6-21 Lithuania enforces sanctions on Ruscist shipments to Kaliningrad - Denys > .
22-5-6 Could Ukraine cause fall of Belarusian Dictator? - VisPol > . skip ad > .
22-4-20 Suwalki Gap - Lithuania strengthens forces b/o Russia | DW > .
22-3-23 Polish citizens join army b/o Russian invasion of Ukraine - BBC > .
22-1-27 Kazakhstan & Ukraine: Russia's Political and Military Manipulations - VP > .

Geostrategic Projection
European Geostrategic Projection ..

The EU's Eastern Partnership is a collection of 6 countries (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus*, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine) and is an attempt from the EU to bolster support within the region and also (allegedly) protect them from the influences of Russia.

The Eastern Partnership (EaP) is a joint initiative of the European External Action Service of the European Union (EU) together with the EU, its Member States, and six Eastern European partners governing the EU's relationship with the post-Soviet states of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine. The EaP is intended to provide a forum for discussions regarding trade, economic strategy, travel agreements, and other issues between the EU and its Eastern European neighbours. It also aims at building a common area of shared values of democracy, prosperity, stability, and increased cooperation. The project was initiated by Poland and a subsequent proposal was prepared in co-operation with Sweden. It was presented by the foreign ministers of Poland and Sweden at the EU's General Affairs and External Relations Council in Brussels on 26 May 2008. The Eastern Partnership was inaugurated by the European Union in Prague, Czech Republic on 7 May 2009.

The first meeting of foreign ministers in the framework of the Eastern Partnership was held on 8 December 2009 in Brussels.

The key focus of the EU engagement within the Eastern Partnership includes the achievement of tangible results for the citizens in the partner countries. The pursuit of tangible outcomes has resulted in 20 deliverables of Eastern Partnership cooperation for 2020. They were developed in close consultation with the stakeholders, and include the following:
  • Modernised transport connections through the Trans-European Transport Network (TEN-T);
  • Increased political ownership of energy efficiency;
  • Easier access to finance for SMEs, including to lending in local currency;
  • Establishing ways of reducing mobile telephony roaming tariffs between partners by conducting a study;
  • Increased trade opportunities;
  • Greater outreach to grassroots Civil Society Organizations; and,
  • More support for youth.
A joint working document "Eastern Partnership – focusing on key priorities and deliverables" drafted by the Commission and EEAS details the objectives across the five priority areas of cooperation agreed at the Eastern Partnership Summit in Riga in 2015:
  1. Stronger governance: Strengthening institutions and good governance
  2. Stronger economy: Economic development and market opportunities
  3. Better connectivity: Connectivity, energy efficiency, environment and climate change
  4. Stronger society: Mobility and people-to-people contacts
  5. Involvement of broader society, gender and communication

sī vīs pācem, parā bellum

igitur quī dēsīderat pācem praeparet bellum    therefore, he who desires peace, let him prepare for war sī vīs pācem, parā bellum if you wan...