Monday, April 18, 2016

Kamikaze Drone - Loitering Munition

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AI & Future of Autonomous Warfare | DW Analysis > .
> DEWs - Directed Energy Weapons >
23-9-24 Combat Drones & Future Air Warfare - Humans + Wingman - Perun > .
23-6-30 Directed Energy Weapons - Lasers vs Drones, Missiles - T&P > .
23-6-13 NATO IAMD | NATO Integrated Air and Missile Defence > .
23-6-13 Drones and the Dystopian Future of War - Journeyman > .
23-6-11 Rocket Roulette: Ruscia uses drones & missiles against Ukraine - U24 > .
23-6-7 Ukrainian Defense Tech Boom - War Startups - U24 > .
22-11-11 Economics of Kamikaze Drones - nwyt > . skip > .
22-4-9 Drones, Missiles, Mercenaries in Future of Militaries - CNBC > .
2013 Rise of the Drones (FULL doc) | NOVA | PBS > .

The artificial intelligence revolution is just getting started. But it is already transforming conflict. Militaries all the way from the superpowers to tiny states are seizing on autonomous weapons as essential to surviving the wars of the future. But this mounting arms-race dynamic could lead the world to dangerous places, with algorithms interacting so fast that they are beyond human control. Uncontrolled escalation, even wars that erupt without any human input at all. 

A loitering munition (also known as a suicide drone or kamikaze drone) is a weapon system category in which the munition loiters around the target area for some time, searches for targets, and attacks once a target is located. Loitering munitions enable faster reaction times against concealed or hidden targets that emerge for short periods without placing high-value platforms close to the target area, and also allow more selective targeting as the actual attack mission can be aborted.

Loitering munitions fit in the niche between cruise missiles and unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs) sharing characteristics with both. They differ from cruise missiles in that they are designed to loiter for a relatively long time around the target area, and from UCAVs in that a loitering munition is intended to be expended in an attack and has a built-in warhead.

Loitering weapons first emerged in the 1980s for use in the Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses (SEAD) role against surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), and were deployed for the SEAD role in a number of military forces in the 1990s. Starting in the 2000s, loitering weapons have been developed for additional roles ranging from relatively long-range strikes and fire support down to tactical, very short range battlefield systems that fit in a backpack.

Loitering munitions have proliferated into use by at least 14 countries, with several different types in use as of 2017. The rising proliferation and the ability to use some systems as lethal autonomous weapons coupled with ethical concerns over such use have led to research and discussion by International humanitarian law scholars and activists.

Extended version includes a blow-by-blow scenario of a cyber attack against nuclear weapons command and control systems: https://youtu.be/TmlBkW6ANsQ .

The world is entering a new era of warfare, with cyber and autonomous weapons taking center stage. These technologies are making militaries faster, smarter, more efficient. But if unchecked, they threaten to destabilize the world.
 
DW takes a deep dive into the future of conflict, uncovering an even more volatile world. Where a cyber intrusion against a nuclear early warning system can unleash a terrifying spiral of escalation; where “flash wars” can erupt from autonomous weapons interacting so fast that no human could keep up.
 
Germany’s Foreign Minister Heiko Maas tells DW that we have already entered the technological arms race that is propelling us towards this future. “We’re right in the middle of it. That’s the reality we have to deal with.”
 
And yet the world is failing to meet the challenge. Talks on controlling autonomous weapons have repeatedly been stalled by major powers seeking to carve out their own advantage. And cyber conflict has become not just a fear of the future but a permanent state of affairs.

DW finds out what must happen to steer the world in a safer direction, with leading voices from the fields of politics, diplomacy, intelligence, academia, and activism speaking out. 

00:00 - Introduction
02:37 - The Cyber Nuclear Nightmare
17:05 - Flash Wars And Autonomous Weapons
30:12 - Trading Markets And Flash Crashes
31:45 - Time To Act

Kit of Future?

UK F-35B + US B2 > .
24-3-31 Global Arms Exports - Winners, losers, trends in race to rearm - Perun > .
> DEWs - Directed Energy Weapons >
23-12-15 FPV drone use in R-U war - cheap guided missiles - Binkov > .
23-9-18 South Korean Factories Churning Out Armaments for NATO | WSJ > .
23-9-10 Industrial Competition & Consolidation, Military Procurement - Perun > .
23-9-7 Pentagon announces Replicator cheap-AI-drone program vs Xina - Binkov > .
23-8-20 NATO's Rearmament & Spending - NATO's R-U Response - Perun > .
23-8-13 Game Theory Of Military Spending | EcEx > .
23-7-29 Why the US Military isn't Out of Ammo - T&P > .
23-7-18 Futureproofing for changing threats; Defence Command Paper - Forces > .
23-6-13 Drones and the Dystopian Future of War - Journeyman > .
23-6-11 Rocket Roulette: Ruscia uses drones & missiles against Ukraine - U24 > .
Kit
22-10-15 US Army’s Universal Camouflage: A Terrible Mistake - Half > .

Saturday, April 16, 2016

MDI - Multi-Domain Integration

2021 Explained: Multi-Domain Integration - Forces > .
24-9-6 [Military Doctrine: US Army's Radical Upgrade for WW3] - T&P > .
24-4-5 Israel's Lavender System, AI Targeting, Battlefield Informatics - McBeth > .
24-3-31 Global Arms Exports - Winners, losers, trends in race to rearm - Perun > .
23-9-24 Combat Drones & Future Air Warfare - Humans + Wingman - Perun > .
23-8-20 NATO's Rearmament & Spending - NATO's R-U Response - Perun > .
23-8-13 Game Theory Of Military Spending | EcEx > .
23-8-10 ‘Detect, Control, Engage’: The Aegis Concept - UNI > .
23-7-18 Futureproofing for changing threats; Defence Command Paper - Forces > .
23-6-13 NATO IAMD | NATO Integrated Air and Missile Defence > .
23-6-11 Rocket Roulette: Ruscia uses drones & missiles against Ukraine - U24 > .
23-3-19 Britain's Shrinking Military - Cold War to Cash-Strapped Shadow - mfp > .
2020 Multi-Domain Operations Prepare the Battlefield of Tomorrow - USA > .Surveillance, Communication, Integration - Leo Orbis >> .
Generative AI - Fallax >> .

NATO

Multi-Domain Integration (MDI) is an exploratory concept that offers an ambitious vision for maintaining advantage in an era of persistent competition.

The concept is founded on the Integrated Operating Concept 2025, which introduces the idea that to compete better against our adversaries, we must integrate for advantage. This integration must be across the five domains (maritime, land, air, space, and cyber and electromagnetic), the three levels of warfare, across government and with allies, partners.

Joint Concept Note (JCN) 1/20 (pdf): Specifically, this concept seeks to outline how:
  • defence can achieve integration across the domains and levels of warfare
  • present the policy questions relating to our level of MDI ambition
  • provides a catalyst for defence experimentation across the Defence Force Development continuum.
Information Operations is a category of direct and indirect support operations for the United States Military. By definition in Joint Publication 3-13, "IO are described as the integrated employment of electronic warfare (EW), computer network operations (CNO), psychological operations (PSYOP), military deception (MILDEC), and operations security (OPSEC), in concert with specified supporting and related capabilities, to influence, disrupt, corrupt or usurp adversarial human and automated decision making while protecting our own." Information Operations (IO) are actions taken to affect adversary information and information systems while defending one's own information and information systems.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross-domain_solution . https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross-domain_interoperability .

Sunday, April 10, 2016

Socieconomic Collapse in 2040?

2021 In 1972 MIT Predicted that Society Will Collapse in 2040 >skip ad > .
23-10-12 [Israel: Xina's self-serving platitudes; blame-US XiPaganda] - Update > .
23-9-29 Decoding P00ti-PooXi blueprint for NoXious World Order | DW > .
23-9-24 $6.5T Problem: BRI, Unproductive, Decaying Infrastructure | EcEx > .
23-7-11 "Eat Bitterness" - Xina's Hopeless Youth Give Up on Life - laowhy86 > . skip > .
23-1-20 Xina's 1st population drop in six decades - demographic crisis. | Digging > .


The Limits to Growth (LTG) is a 1972 report on the exponential economic and population growth with a finite supply of resources, studied by computer simulation. The study used the World3 computer model to simulate the consequence of interactions between the earth and human systems. The model was based on the work of Jay Forrester of MIT,  as described in his book World Dynamics.

The World3 model is based on five variables: "population, food production, industrialization, pollution, and consumption of nonrenewable natural resources".  At the time of the study, all these variables were increasing and were assumed to continue to grow exponentially, while the ability of technology to increase resources grew only linearly. The authors intended to explore the possibility of a sustainable feedback pattern that would be achieved by altering growth trends among the five variables under three scenarios. They noted that their projections for the values of the variables in each scenario were predictions "only in the most limited sense of the word", and were only indications of the system's behavioral tendencies. Two of the scenarios saw "overshoot and collapse" of the global system by the mid- to latter-part of the 21st century, while a third scenario resulted in a "stabilized world".

Commissioned by the Club of Rome, the findings of the study were first presented at international gatherings in Moscow and Rio de Janeiro in the summer of 1971. The report's authors are Donella H. Meadows, Dennis L. Meadows, Jørgen Randers, and William W. Behrens III, representing a team of 17 researchers.

The report concludes that, without substantial changes in resource consumption, "the most probable result will be a rather sudden and uncontrollable decline in both population and industrial capacity". Although its methods and premises were heavily challenged on its publication, subsequent work to validate its forecasts continue to confirm that insufficient changes have been made since 1972 to significantly alter their nature.

Since its publication, some 30 million copies of the book in 30 languages have been purchased. It continues to generate debate and has been the subject of several subsequent publications.

Beyond the Limits and The Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update were published in 1992 and 2004 respectively, and in 2012, a 40-year forecast from Jørgen Randers, one of the book's original authors, was published as 2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years.

Alternate predictions: After the Club of Rome's controversial 1972 report The Limits to Growth produced widespread alarm about the possibility that population growth and resource depletion might result in a 21st-century global "collapse", the Hudson Institute responded with an analysis of its own, The Next 200 Years, which concluded, instead, that scientific and practical innovations were likely to produce significantly better worldwide living standards. In 1970, The Emerging Japanese Superstate, elaborating Kahn's predictions on the rise of Japan, was published. 

Herman Kahn (February 15, 1922 – July 7, 1983) was a founder of the Hudson Institute and one of the preeminent futurists of the latter part of the twentieth century. He originally came to prominence as a military strategist and systems theorist while employed at the RAND Corporation. He became known for analyzing the likely consequences of nuclear war and recommending ways to improve survivability, making him one of the historical inspirations for the title character of Stanley Kubrick's classic black comedy film satire Dr. Strangelove. His theories contributed heavily to the development of the nuclear strategy of the United States.

Maintaining this optimism about the future in his 1982 book The Coming Boom, Kahn argued that pro-growth tax and fiscal policies, an emerging information technology revolution, and breakthrough developments in the energy industry would make possible a period of unprecedented prosperity in the Western world by the early 21st century. Kahn was among the first to foresee unconventional extraction techniques like hydraulic fracturing.

A little extra bit for people who are curious : systems dynamics models are a bit different than the modern machine learning systems we generally picture today. they do not have the ability to be trained and learn, instead they are hand built, usually using multiple theories that are then chained together into bigger 'systems'. The 'historical data' bit is for hand validation, you run known datasets through it and see how well your theory does, then you have to hand make adjustments. It is still pretty heavily used today since it is much more explainable than ML, but requires a lot more up front work and is not as useful for things like recommendation systems (the core of search, advertising, and product/media browsing) so it gets a lot less attention.

Stock Market Crash?


For over 10 years the US stock market has been rising (with the exception of a small COVID blip), but can this continue forever? Well in this video we examine the forces which suggest we're headed towards a market crash and discuss whether we could indeed be headed toward a crash.

2:46 Schiller Price to Earnings Ratio = total market cap / average annual earnings
4:38 Buffett Indicator = total market cap / America's current GDP
5:26 CBOE Skew Index ~ out-of-the-money option contracts = essentially giving the buyer to buy or sell a share at a price it is currently not trading at = measure of investors' insuring against a crash.

sī vīs pācem, parā bellum

igitur quī dēsīderat pācem praeparet bellum    therefore, he who desires peace, let him prepare for war sī vīs pācem, parā bellum if you wan...