Economic Recessions and Recoveries

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Greatest Economic Recovery In Human History? - EcAS > .

Why You Should Be Very Afraid Of A K-shaped Recovery - EcEx > . skip ad > .

Hoover's Mismanagement of the Great Depression - Biog > .

Great Depression - After The 1929 Financial Crash - Time > .

The Crash of 1929 (PBS) > .
1929 1/3 - US Economy Crashes Hard - B2W - tgh > .
1929-10-24 Stock Market Crash - Black Thursday - ExHi > .

1932-7-8 Dow Jones falls to lowest point during Great Depression - HiPo > .
The Great Depression | US history lecture - CynHist > .

GDP is Not a Perfect Measure of Economic Well-Being - Many Lessons > .

Reminiscences of a 1929 Bubble - TCO > .

22-3-3 Plaza Accord & How Economy Of Japan Could Predict Next Decade - EcEx > .

22-10-15 Japan - national debt, liquidity trap vs artificial inflation - VisEco > .

24-9-7 What modern monetary theory is - Richard J Murphy > .

> Capitalism >>

Debt ..

24-10-15 How the US Debt Crisis Affects Us All - Cold Fusion > .

>> Economics >>>

> > Econopolitics > >

Don't Bank On It - Weighs 'n Means >> .

Fed, Monetary & Fiscal Policy - anffyddiaeth >> .

Rise & Fall of Economies - Money & Macro >> .

Ups & Downs & Ups - Weighs 'n Means >> .

>> Money & Macro >>

Economic Recessions and Recoveries ..

Energy as Currency ..

Ordoliberalism (Wirtschaftswunder) ..

Recession, Depression ..

In 1709, the UK suffered after The Great Frost. Over one hundred years ago, the aftermath of WW1 led to the Roaring 20s. Particularly in the United States. As the nation’s total wealth doubled, the consumer society became mainstream and mass production really kicked off. Yet that didn’t end well. Wall Street’s main stock market index crashed nearly 90% from September 1929 to June 1932. Unemployment skyrocketed and ultimately led to the Great Depression. The period following WW2 is often called the Golden Age of Capitalism. As global output reached its pre-war level by 1947. Strongly on the back of the US, but even Germany and Japan reached theirs by the mid 50s. In fact, across the world both developed and developing countries experienced growth rates of more than 5% on average well into the 60s. Rates which many would absolutely love to have today. Crucially, it wasn’t just total output or GDP that improved. Expansion included a wide range of metrics, from employment, to debt, to the level of household consumption. And whilst there will always be exceptions, in both countries and metrics, the general picture was one of a strong post war recovery. Then came the 70s Energy Crisis, 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, 2001 Dot Com Bubble, 2008 Great Financial Crisis, and, beginning in 2020, impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.

0:00 Intro to economic recoveries
1:41 The economic impact of 2020
2:31 How have economic forecasts changed
3:37 Why was there such a difference between economic expectations and reality
4:50 The key elements of a recession
7:35 What are the future economic recovery projections
8:43 Altsimplified reflects

ETF - Exchange-Traded Fund

An exchange-traded fund (ETF) is a type of investment fund and exchange-traded product, i.e. they are traded on stock exchanges. ETFs are similar in many ways to mutual funds, except that ETFs are bought and sold throughout the day on stock exchanges while mutual funds are bought and sold based on their price at day's end. An ETF holds assets such as stocks, bonds, currencies, and/or commodities such as gold bars, and generally operates with an arbitrage mechanism designed to keep it trading close to its net asset value, although deviations can occasionally occur. Most ETFs are index funds: that is, they hold the same securities in the same proportions as a certain stock market index or bond market index. The most popular ETFs in the U.S. replicate the S&P 500 Index, the total market index, the NASDAQ-100 index, the price of gold, the "growth" stocks in the Russell 1000 Index, or the index of the largest technology companies. With the exception of non-transparent actively managed ETFs, in most cases, the list of stocks that each ETF owns, as well as their weightings, is posted daily on the website of the issuer. The largest ETFs have annual fees of 0.03% of the amount invested, or even lower, although specialty ETFs can have annual fees well in excess of 1% of the amount invested. These fees are paid to the ETF issuer out of dividends received from the underlying holdings or from selling assets.

An ETF divides ownership of itself into shares that are held by shareholders. The details of the structure (such as a corporation or trust) will vary by country, and even within one country there may be multiple possible structures. The shareholders indirectly own the assets of the fund, and they will typically get annual reports. Shareholders are entitled to a share of the profits, such as interest or dividends, and they would be entitled to any residual value if the fund undergoes liquidation.

ETFs may be attractive as investments because of their low costs, tax efficiency, and tradability.

As of 2017, there were 5,024 ETFs trading globally, with 1,756 based in the U.S., with over half of the inflows going to the 20 largest ETFs. As of September 2020, assets under management by U.S. ETFs was $4.9 trillion. Assets were up to $5.5 trillion by January 2021. In the U.S., the largest ETF issuers are BlackRock iShares with a 39% market share, The Vanguard Group with a 25% market share, and State Street Global Advisors with a 16% market share.

Closed-end funds are not considered to be ETFs, even though they are funds and are traded on an exchange. ETNs are exchange-traded notes, debt instruments that are not exchange-traded funds.

Debt ..

24-10-15 How the US Debt Crisis Affects Us All - Cold Fusion > .

Devaluation Risks - X ..

Excess Burden - Taxation

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20-6-4 Do We Actually Need Taxes? - EcEx > .

Public Goods and Externalities - PrDaEx > .

Economics - PrDaEx >> .

Debt ..

24-10-15 How the US Debt Crisis Affects Us All - Cold Fusion > .

In economics, the excess burden of taxation, also known as the deadweight cost or deadweight loss of taxation, is one of the economic losses that society suffers as the result of taxes or subsidies. Economic theory posits that distortions change the amount and type of economic behavior from that which would occur in a free market without the tax. Excess burdens can be measured using the average cost of funds or the marginal cost of funds (MCF). Excess burdens were first discussed by Adam Smith.

An equivalent kind of inefficiency can also be caused by subsidies (which technically can be viewed as taxes with negative rates).

The cost of a distortion is usually measured as the amount that would have to be paid to the people affected by its supply, the greater the excess burden. The second is the tax rate: as a general rule, the excess burden of a tax increases with the square of the tax rate.

The average cost of funds is the total cost of distortions divided by the total revenue collected by a government. In contrast, the marginal cost of funds (MCF) is the size of the distortion that accompanied the last unit of revenue raised (i.e. the rate of change of distortion with respect to revenue). In most cases, the MCF increases as the amount of tax collected increases.

The standard position in economics is that the costs in a cost-benefit analysis for any tax-funded project should be increased according to the marginal cost of funds, because that is close to the deadweight loss that will be experienced if the project is added to the budget, or to the deadweight loss removed if the project is removed from the budget.

Economic losses due to taxes were evaluated to be as low as 2.5 cents per dollar of revenue, and as high as 30 cents per dollar of revenue (on average), and even much higher at the margins.

In the case of progressive taxes, the distortionary effects of a tax may be accompanied by other benefits: the redistribution of dollars from wealthier people to poorer people who could possibly obtain more benefit from them - in effect reducing economic inequalities and improving GDP growth.

In fact almost any tax measure will distort the economy from the path or process that would have prevailed in its absence (land value taxes are a notable exception together with other capital or wealth taxes). For example, a sales tax applied to all goods will tend to discourage consumption of all the taxed items, and an income tax will tend to discourage people from earning money in the category of income that is taxed (unless they can manage to avoid being taxed). Some people may move out of the work force (to avoid income tax); some may move into the cash or black economies (where incomes are not revealed to the tax authorities).

Export Controls vs Attracting Industrial Investment

23-3-19 Zimbabwe's Lithium Export Ban Might Enrich Some Africans - EcEx > .

23-9-30 US vs Xina in Race to Secure Lithium | WSJ > .

23-2-18 How Botswana Beat Africa's Mineral Resource Curse - Mining > .

21-11-19 Botswana is Quickly Becoming Africa's Richest Country - CasSch > .

> African Economies >> > Africa >>  > Africa~ >>  

24-3-23 Islamist Terrorists, French, Ruscians - Proxy Insurgencies in Africa - Real > .

Mining, Resources, Geoeconomics - Γαῖα >> .

Resource Issues - Omnia per Scientiam >> .
Shock and Ore - Omnia per Scientiam >> .

Comment A: The Zimbabwean government is banning the export of unprocessed lithium by what they call 'artisan miners', basically illegal miners. This ban does not extend to the giant corporations who are exporting raw lithium now and who will continue to export raw lithium. It's basically investors telling that govt to shut down the small operators. The whole video is pointless.

Comment B: 
Companies don't want to build plants in Zimbabwe because they have reasons not to. Endemic corruption is one such reason. Banning the export of a particular raw material (e.g. lithium) does nothing to change that unfavorable business environment. I think the result is pretty darn predictable.

Mining The World: Comment: This video is incredibly over optimistic for the following reasons: 

First, Zimbabwe has only 1.2% of global lithium reserves, 30x less than Chile and 20x less than Australia, really a negligible amount and certainly not enough to move lithium prices as the video claims. 

Second, having a lot of mineral resources might make you a geologic powerhouse, but it doesn't make you an economic powerhouse and certainly not a "superpower" unless you know how to exploit those resources. For Zimbabwe to have any hope of profiting from these resources, it needs to provide proper incentives to mining companies and other foreign investors - not radical policies like export bans that have a high likelihood of backfiring. 

Meanwhile there is little chance of it ever building refining capacity or battery metals production as this requires advanced manufacturing and technical capabilities and stable power generation. 

This is why China, Japan and South Korea, which have all spent decades building up refining and manufacturing expertise, lead at this end of the mineral value chain, while very poor countries with regular power blackouts such as Zimbabwe do not. 

The final point was that for Zimbabwe to generate economic growth (and for a country with a GDP per capita comparable to Yemen and Afghanistan, it should be aiming for incremental growth, not superpower status), it should look no further than its neighbour Botswana for a how-to guide. Botswana is the actual African economic success story ($20,000 gdp per capita - 10x higher than Zimbabwe) and did it by putting in place the right conditions (e.g. a constitution in place at independence, democratic and stable government, security of tenure for foreign investors, low corruption) to profit from its diamond resources. There's a video about Botswana and its diamond industry on my channel if you're keen on learning more.

FDR & New Deal

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Racist aspects of the program that "saved" America - TED-Ed > .

First New Deal: Stemming the Tide of Depression in 1933 - Mega > .

History Brief: The New Deal - rth > .

The New Deal: Crash Course US History #34 > .

1932-7-8 Dow Jones falls to lowest point during Great Depression - HiPo > .

How Did the Great Depression End? - HiHu > .

F.D.R - The Four-Term President - Biog > .

Eleanor Roosevelt - The First Lady to the World - Biog > .

HMS Indomitable - "Sweepers, Man Your Brooms." - Skynea > .

1929 Stock Markets Slump & Crash ..

Economic Recessions and Recoveries ..

New Deal ..

Recession, Depression ..

Roosevelt, Eleanor (USA) ..

What ended the Great Depression from 1929? The economic crisis kicked off at Black Thursday on October 24, 1929 when the stock market on Wall Street crashed. American president Herbert Hoover had no answer to the crisis. The economic recession became an economic depression. In 1933 Democrat Franklin D. Roosevelt became president and said: “this nation asks for action, and action now.” He had a plan named the New Deal. This was a package of laws for economic and social reforms. Did Roosevelt's New Deal stop the Great Depression?

Franklin Delano Roosevelt was the longest serving President in US history, serving 12 year in office from 1933-1945. He steered the nation through its worst economic crisis, only to be faced with the most horrific war in history. Though facing titanic physical challenges of his own, he imbued America with the indomitable fortitude and sense of morale that was required to spur the nation to victory.