Ruscism ..
ZAPAD 2021 = 10-16 September. ZAPAD (the Russian word for “west”) is a quadrennial component of annual joint strategic exercises (SSU –
sovmestnyye strategicheskiye ucheniya) which rotate between Eastern, Central, Southern, and Western (Zapadnyy) Military Districts (MD). Northern Fleet, officially designated the fifth military district on 1 January 2021, is not yet integrated into the annual strategic exercise rotation but participated concurrently in ZAPAD 2017
and again in 2021.
Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) video: In September, Russia and Belarus will conduct their
quadrennial exercise,
“Zapad-2021,” which is designed to demonstrate the readiness and capabilities of
Russia’s Western Military District and its military integration with Belarus. This exercise is being closely monitored following Russia’s recent mobilization of an estimated 100,000 troops along
Ukraine’s border and within
Crimea which caused the U.S. European Command to raise its awareness level to a “potential imminent crisis.” Although there was a de-escalation of tensions following the Kremlin’s announcement on April 22nd that it would largely withdraw these forces, substantial military equipment remained behind for use during Zapad. This exercise will also be important to observe the potentially permanent shifts in Russia’s military deployments and posture in Belarus following the flawed 2020 Belarusian elections, the Lukashenko regime’s repressive tactics, and the recent air high-jacking of a civilian airline to arrest a Belarusian blogger. What can we expect from Zapad-2021? What will the pre-exercises show us? How will Russia’s recent military mobilization and pre-position equipment near Ukraine’s border impact the exercise and what will it tell us about Russia’s future capabilities and intent? Finally, what are the potential "red flags" the United States and NATO should watch for?
The
Chatham House briefing addresses the geopolitical context behind
Zapad-2021 and explains Russian training and large-scale drills across Russia and Belarus. As Russia embarks on the
‘hot phase’ of the Zapad-2021 strategic exercise between
10-16 September, this briefing explains what the Russian armed forces will likely test and train for, as well as how the large-scale drills will unfold across the territories of Russia and Belarus. It also addresses the
geopolitical context behind the exercise and highlights what international attention should focus on. What is the geopolitical context of Zapad-21, notably in relation to Belarus and NATO? What can be expected from the strategic exercise in terms of scenario, numbers, and deployment size in Russia and Belarus? What does Zapad-21 show in terms of evolving military thought and lessons learned? What capabilities and military hardware will likely be tested? What should international attention focus on? What is Russia trying to communicate and should the West be concerned?
The
geostrategic context within which ZAPAD unfolds is complex and dynamic. Ties between Minsk and Moscow have strengthened in the years since ZAPAD 2017, while relations between the Russian-Belarus union and the rest of Europe are, at best, tense. Belarussian President Alyaksandr
Lukashenka has attempted to refocus attention away from his internal struggles by, among other things, “weaponizing” migrants from the Middle East against the West, in particular Lithuania. Indications that
ethnic Russians are a part of the refugee mix attempting entry into Lithuania suggests Moscow’s complicity in creating a crisis with Vilnius.
For its part, the
Northern Fleet entered a preparatory phase of training in early August. Drills included command and staff training down to the unit level, with nearly 10,000 personnel, 30 surface vessels and submarines, along with naval infantry, air, and air defense units conducting coordinated defensive exercises in the Barents and White Seas. Some Northern Fleet units, such as naval infantry, will deploy to Western MDs in supporting roles while large naval formations will remain in the Barents for defensive and offensive operations, possibly to include submarine launched ballistic missile launches (either simulated or as part of a service test protocol).
