Geoeconomics
Military
Tuesday, March 31, 2015
Saturday, March 28, 2015
Friday, March 27, 2015
Black Sea & Dardanelles
Black Sea Geopolitics ...
Geopolitical analysis for 2019: Middle East - CaRe > .
23-7-29 Will Turkey and Greece go to War? - Warographics > .
23-7-29 Will Turkey and Greece go to War? - Warographics > .
23-5-11 Turkey Votes. Erdoğan’s Last Dance? - gtbt > . skip > .
22-7-31 Turkey's Squabble with Greece - Planet > .
2021 The End of Oil, Explained | Vox + Netflix > .
Russia's Paranoid Endgame ..
RvU 2021 Russia vs Ukraine ..
2021 Ukraine-Russia tensions ..
þBoP - Economics - tb >> .
þBoP - Middle East, Russia - tb >> .
Turkey has detained 10 retired admirals after they openly criticised a huge Istanbul canal project championed by [autocratic] President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Those held were among 104 retired admirals who signed an open letter warning against withdrawal from an international treaty governing use of the strategic Bosphorus Strait. The strait, crowded with shipping, is the only waterway linking the Black Sea to the Mediterranean. The planned canal is an alternative.
21-4-30 Is Russia Becoming Irrelevant? - CoCa > .
21-12-14 Belarus Against Europe - RealLifeLore > .
Black Sea & Dardanelles ..
Ruscism ..
Russia's Paranoid Endgame ..
RvU 2021 Russia vs Ukraine ..
2021 Ukraine-Russia tensions ..
þBoP - Middle East, Russia - tb >> .
Thursday, March 26, 2015
Caucasus
23-9-29 Nagorno-Karabakh | Ethnic Cleansing? - J K-L > .22-10-15 Why Azerbaijan Will Keep Attacking Armenia - Real > .
"Eastern Europe"
Caucasus - Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia - Graydations >> .
The Caucasus, or Caucasia, is a region [lying between Russia and the Middle East] between the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea and mainly occupied by Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and parts of Southern Russia. It is home to the Caucasus Mountains, including the Greater Caucasus mountain range, which has historically been considered a natural barrier between Eastern Europe and Western Asia.
(Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan - Russia's autonomous mountainous southern rampart.)
Europe's highest mountain, Mount Elbrus, at 5,642 metres (18,510 ft) is in the west part of the Greater Caucasus mountain range. On the southern side, the Lesser Caucasus includes the Javakheti Plateau and grows into the Armenian highlands, part of which is located in Turkey.
The Caucasus region is separated into two parts, which fall into two continents, the North Caucasus of Russia (Ciscaucasia) in Europe, and the South Caucasus (Transcaucasia) in Asia, respectively. The Greater Caucasus mountain range in the north is mostly shared by Russia and Georgia, as well as the northernmost parts of Azerbaijan. The Lesser Caucasus mountain range in the south is occupied by several independent states, namely, mostly by Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, but also extending to parts of northeastern Turkey, northern Iran and the partially recognised Artsakh Republic.
The region is known for its linguistic diversity: aside from Indo-European and Turkic languages, the Kartvelian, Northwest Caucasian, and Northeast Caucasian language families are indigenous to the area.Up to and including the early 19th century, the Southern Caucasus and southern Dagestan all formed part of the Persian Empire. In 1813 and 1828 by the Treaty of Gulistan and the Treaty of Turkmenchay respectively, the Persians were forced to irrevocably cede the Southern Caucasus and Dagestan to Imperial Russia. In the ensuing years after these gains, the Russians took the remaining part of the Southern Caucasus, comprising western Georgia, through several wars from the Ottoman Empire.
In the second half of the 19th century, the Russian Empire also conquered the Northern Caucasus. In the aftermath of the Caucasian Wars, an ethnic cleansing of Circassians was performed by Russia in which the indigenous peoples of this region, mostly Circassians, were expelled from their homeland and forced to move primarily to the Ottoman Empire.
Having killed and deported most of Armenians of Western Armenia during the Armenian Genocide, the Turks intended to eliminate the Armenian population of Eastern Armenia. During the 1920 Turkish–Armenian War, 60,000 to 98,000 Armenian civilians were estimated to have been killed by the Turkish army. In the 1940s, around 480,000 Chechens and Ingush, 120,000 Karachay–Balkars and Meskhetian Turks, thousands of Kalmyks, and 200,000 Kurds in Nakchivan and Caucasus Germans were deported en masse to Central Asia and Siberia. About a quarter of them died.
The Southern Caucasus region was unified as a single political entity twice – during the Russian Civil War (Transcaucasian Democratic Federative Republic) from 9 April 1918 to 26 May 1918, and under the Soviet rule (Transcaucasian SFSR) from 12 March 1922 to 5 December 1936. Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia became independent nations.The region has been subject to various territorial disputes since the collapse of the Soviet Union, leading to the First Nagorno-Karabakh War (1988–1994), the East Prigorodny Conflict (1989–1991), the War in Abkhazia (1992–93), the First Chechen War (1994–1996), the Second Chechen War (1999–2009), and the 2008 South Ossetia War.
On 27 September 2020, new clashes in the unresolved Nagorno-Karabakh conflict resumed along the Nagorno-Karabakh Line of Contact. Both the armed forces of Armenia and Azerbaijan reported military and civilian casualties. The Nagorno-Karabakh ceasefire agreement to end the six-week war between Armenia and Azerbaijan was seen by many as Armenia's defeat and capitulation.In the second half of the 19th century, the Russian Empire also conquered the Northern Caucasus. In the aftermath of the Caucasian Wars, an ethnic cleansing of Circassians was performed by Russia in which the indigenous peoples of this region, mostly Circassians, were expelled from their homeland and forced to move primarily to the Ottoman Empire.
Having killed and deported most of Armenians of Western Armenia during the Armenian Genocide, the Turks intended to eliminate the Armenian population of Eastern Armenia. During the 1920 Turkish–Armenian War, 60,000 to 98,000 Armenian civilians were estimated to have been killed by the Turkish army. In the 1940s, around 480,000 Chechens and Ingush, 120,000 Karachay–Balkars and Meskhetian Turks, thousands of Kalmyks, and 200,000 Kurds in Nakchivan and Caucasus Germans were deported en masse to Central Asia and Siberia. About a quarter of them died.
Ruscism ..
Sunday, March 22, 2015
Going Nuclear?
[Courtesy of DUH's megalomania] Will Middle East go nuclear? > . skip promo > .
22-12-11 Rosatom & global nuclear industry work (subs) - Katz > .22-10-7 What If Pootin Nukes Ukraine? - OBF > .
Friday, March 20, 2015
Israel & Palestine
2021 Why Israel and Palestine are fighting [again] - CaRe > .
24-2-8 Israel: High-Tech Military; Intelligence Failure - Caspian > .
24-2-1 Why [despite weakist antisemitism] US Supports and Funds Israel | WSJ > .
23-9-5 Israel's Everlasting [Internal & External] War - gtbt > .
Israel's Iron Dome Defense System - Mah > .
How Israel’s Iron Dome Works - WSJ > .
Israel - Geopolitics ..
2016 Israeli settlements, explained | Settlements 1 - Vox > .Complex History Of The Israeli–Palestinian Conflict - AH Nerd > .
Problem with the Palestinian State - VisPol > .In 1999 the natural gas reserves were discovered 36 kilometres (22 miles) off the Gaza Strip. They could potentially turn Palestine into a gas-exporting country and bring in billions of dollars per year. But how would that affect Israel’s and Egypt’s interests in the region.
Israel - Geopolitics
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How Israel became a high-tech military superpower - CaRe > .First Arab - Israeli War 1948 - Cold War Doc - K&G > .Yom Kippur War 1973 - Sinai Front Doc - K&G > .
1848 Middle East 2020 ..
47-11-29 UN partition plan - Palestine ..Iron Dome - Israel's Missile Defence System ..
47-11-29 UN partition plan - Palestine ..Iron Dome - Israel's Missile Defence System ..
Israel - Geopolitics ..
Israel & Palestine ..
Israel & Palestine ..
Thursday, March 19, 2015
Jordan-Israel-Palestine
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Why Jordan Chooses Israel Over Palestine - KJ R > .24-4-23 Israel's Relationship c Jordan Threatened by Radical Activism | TBN > .
24-2-8 Israel: High-Tech Military; Intelligence Failure - Caspian > .
24-2-1 Why [despite weakist antisemitism] US Supports and Funds Israel | WSJ > .
23-9-5 Israel's Everlasting [Internal & External] War - gtbt > .
Despite dramatic regional changes, Jordan remains of strategic importance to Israel’s security. Hashemite Kingdom is often seen as an artificial energy-poor state, surrounded by hostile and more powerful neighbours. Still, it has been a key element in the American and Israeli security concepts for the region for over half a century.
Tuesday, March 17, 2015
Lebanon - Continuing Crisis
Lebanon 2020 - Beirut Explosion ..
Lebanon - Continuing Crisis ..
Lebanon - Continuing Crisis ..
The country is now in a state of collapse - fuel shortages, power cuts, bare shelves and a plummeting currency. It is a financial crisis with deep roots in a fundamentally flawed political system. Last year saw the mass resignation of the entire cabinet after the explosion at a port that killed more than two hundred. It was later discovered a storage facility had been holding dangerous chemicals that no one had bothered to move.
Lebanon - sociopolitical chaos
> Lebanon >>
Sequelae:
Beirut explosion: Angry residents rage at leaders after blast - BBC > .
Lebanon 2020 - Beirut Explosion ..
Lebanon - Continuing Crisis ..
Sequelae:
Beirut explosion: Angry residents rage at leaders after blast - BBC > .
Will the Beirut explosion lead to political change in Lebanon? - AlJaz > .
Opinion: Beirut blast - Is Lebanon a failed state? - FT > .
Opinion: Beirut blast - Is Lebanon a failed state? - FT > .
Lebanon 2020 - Beirut Explosion ..
Lebanon - Continuing Crisis ..
Lebanon - sociopolitical chaos ..
Lebanon's Sectarian Disaster ..
Lebanon's Sectarian Disaster ..
Lebanon 2020 - Beirut Explosion
2021 Economy of Lebanon: How to Fix its Currency Crisis - Macro > .
Will the Beirut explosion lead to political change in Lebanon? - AlJaz > .
Opinion: Beirut blast - Is Lebanon a failed state? - FT > .
Opinion: Beirut blast - Is Lebanon a failed state? - FT > .
Background:
People in Beirut have expressed anger at the government over what they say was negligence that led to Tuesday's huge explosion.
President Michel Aoun said the blast was caused by 2,750 tonnes of ammonium nitrate stored unsafely in a warehouse.
Many have accused the authorities of corruption, neglect and mismanagement.
The blast killed at least 137 people and injured about 5,000 others, while dozens are still missing. A two-week state of emergency has begun.
Lebanon 2020 - Beirut Explosion ..
Lebanon - Continuing Crisis ..
President Michel Aoun said the blast was caused by 2,750 tonnes of ammonium nitrate stored unsafely in a warehouse.
Many have accused the authorities of corruption, neglect and mismanagement.
The blast killed at least 137 people and injured about 5,000 others, while dozens are still missing. A two-week state of emergency has begun.
Lebanon 2020 - Beirut Explosion ..
Lebanon - Continuing Crisis ..
Lebanon's Sectarian Disaster
2021 How Lebanon's Collapse could lead to [another] Civil War - My Take > .
00:00 Intro
00:57 A Nation in Free Fall
09:02 A Sectarian System
16:29 The Drums of War
20:30 A United Voice
00:57 A Nation in Free Fall
09:02 A Sectarian System
16:29 The Drums of War
20:30 A United Voice
Weak Lebanon grows weaker. Beset by fuel shortages, power outages and a collapsing economy, a wave of violence has hit the country in response to the work of judge Tarek Bitar who is investigating those responsible for the Beirut blast that rocked the capital a year ago. With the violence quickly organising itself along sectarian lines, many fear the return of another civil war. What is it about Lebanon’s sectarian political system that turned it from the Switzerland of the Middle East to a nation on the brink of collapse? How can the Lebanese people rid their nation of a corrupt political class? And is the country on the brink of another sectarian civil war?
Lebanon 2020 - Beirut Explosion ..
Lebanon - Continuing Crisis ..
Lebanon - Continuing Crisis ..
Lebanon - sociopolitical chaos ..
Lebanon's Sectarian Disaster ..
Lebanon's Sectarian Disaster ..
Monday, March 16, 2015
MBZ
23-8-11 Saudi Arabia's Challenging Geography - Real > .
23-7-22 Saudi Arabia’s Catastrophic “Everything” Problem - Real > .
23-7-22 Saudi Arabia’s Catastrophic “Everything” Problem - Real > .
Egypt-UAE
24-4-12 Egypt is selling city site to UAE for $35 billion - Caspian > .The Most Powerful Arab Ruler Isn’t M.B.S. It’s M.B.Z.: Prince Mohammed bin Zayed expanded the U.A.E.’s power by following America’s lead. He now has an increasingly bellicose agenda of his own. And UNpresident Kleptocrat-in-Cheat seems to be following him.
"Prince Mohammed, now 58, crown prince of Abu Dhabi and de facto ruler of the United Arab Emirates, is arguably the most powerful leader in the Arab world. He is also among the most influential foreign voices in Washington, urging the United States to adopt his increasingly bellicose approach to the region.
Prince Mohammed is almost unknown to the American public and his tiny country has fewer citizens than Rhode Island. But he may be the richest man in the world. He controls sovereign wealth funds worth $1.3 trillion, more than any other country.
His influence operation in Washington is legendary. His military is the Arab world’s most potent, equipped though its work with the United States to conduct high-tech surveillance and combat operations far beyond its borders.
..
For decades, the prince has been a key American ally, following Washington’s lead, but now he is going his own way. His special forces are active in Yemen, Libya, Somalia and Egypt’s North Sinai. He has worked to thwart democratic transitions in the Middle East, helped install a reliable autocrat in Egypt and boosted a protégé to power in Saudi Arabia.
At times, the prince has contradicted American policy and destabilized neighbors. Rights groups have criticized him for jailing dissidents at home, for his role in creating a humanitarian crisis in Yemen, and for backing the Saudi prince whose agents killed the dissident writer Jamal Khashoggi.Yet under the Crook-in-Cheat Badministration, his influence in Washington appears greater than ever. He has a rapport with UNpresident Follow-the-Money, who has frequently adopted the prince’s views on Qatar, Libya and Saudi Arabia, even over the advice of cabinet officials or senior national security staff.
Western diplomats who know the prince — known as M.B.Z. — say he is obsessed with two enemies, Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood. Agent Orange has sought to move strongly against both and last week took steps to bypass congressional opposition to keep selling weapons to both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates."
Muslim Brotherhood - Origins
23-8-11 Saudi Arabia's Challenging Geography - Real > .
23-7-22 Saudi Arabia’s Catastrophic “Everything” Problem - Real > .
23-7-22 Saudi Arabia’s Catastrophic “Everything” Problem - Real > .
> Hezbollah >>
Hezbollah cfr Hezbollah ('Party of Allah' or 'Party of God') is a Lebanese Shia Islamist political party and militant group, led since 1992 by its Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah.
Sunday, March 15, 2015
Nagorno-Karabakh
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23-9-28 Fall of Nagorno-Karabakh: What Next for Armenia and Azerbaijan? - Waro > .
23-9-22 Armenia vs Azerbaijan: Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict || Peter Zeihan > .
23-9-22 Armenia vs Azerbaijan: Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict || Peter Zeihan > .
23-9-20 Unresolved questions in the ongoing Nagorno-Karabakh conflict | DW > .
23-9-20 Republic of Artsakh Surrenders | Ruscian "peacekeepers" attacked - Balkan > .
23-9-19 Azerbaijan launches military operation in Nagorno-Karabakh | Balkan > .
23-9-10 Armenia or Azerbaijan? Mapping stance of European countries - Balkan > .
22-11-25 TURKIC STATES | A New Geopolitical Bloc? - J K-L >> .
22-9-23 ARMENIA-AZERBAIJAN | Is a New War Coming? - J K-L > .
22-9-13 Armenia accuses Azerbaijan of advancing into its territory | DW > .
21-12-17 Armenia | One Year after the War - J K-L > .
21-10-22 IRAN-AZERBAIJAN | A Growing Regional RIVALRY? - J K-L > .
20-11-14 The Nagorno-Karabakh / Artsakh war - Conflict Analysis - gtbt > .
20-11-13 Armenia-Azerbaijan | Nagorno-Karabakh Peace Agreement - J K-L > .
20-10-16 AZERBAIJAN | Can It Really Retake Nagorno-Karabakh? - J K-L > .
20-10-16 AZERBAIJAN | Can It Really Retake Nagorno-Karabakh? - J K-L > .
20-7-24 Armenia-Azerbaijan | Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict Explained - J K-L > .
18-12-17 Armenia vs Azerbaijan: Whose military would win? - Binkov > .
History of Armenia Summarized - Epimetheus > .
History of Armenia Summarized - Epimetheus > .
AI & Future of Autonomous Warfare | DW Analysis > .
Future of Modern Warfare: Technology Transforming Conflict | DW Analysis > .
>> Prof James Ker-Lindsay >>Future of Modern Warfare: Technology Transforming Conflict | DW Analysis > .
ARMENIA, AZERBAIJAN AND NAGORNO-KARABAKH - Prof J Ker-Lindsay >> .
Nagorno-Karabakh - PrTe >> .
Renewed hostilities have been raging between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces around the contested territory of Nagorno-Karabakh in the southern Caucasus.
In scale and scope, the fighting that broke out on Sunday surpasses the periodic escalations of recent years, involving heavy artillery, tanks, missiles and drones.
So far there are more than 100 confirmed deaths among civilians and Armenian combatants killed in action. Azerbaijan does not release data on its military losses, but these can be assumed to be at least as high.
The fighting appears to be driven by an attempt by Azerbaijani forces to recapture swathes of territories occupied by Armenian forces in the Karabakh war after the Soviet Union collapsed. Hundreds of thousands of ethnic Azeris were displaced from these areas in 1992-4.
Rapid and consolidated military success, either through recapture of significant territory by Azerbaijan, or the repelling of Azerbaijani operations by Armenian forces, could open up scope for a ceasefire, but trigger domestic instability in whichever side fares worse.
The longer that fighting goes on, and/or if one side is seen to be losing in a more protracted struggle, the more likely it is that Russia and Turkey will face difficult choices over whether to become more involved.
Turkey, which is backing Azerbaijan in the conflict, has denied the claim. Azerbaijan has repeatedly stated that its air force does not have F-16 fighter jets. However, Turkey does.
Nearly 100 people, including civilians, have died in three days of fighting over the disputed mountainous region. The enclave is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan, but has been run by ethnic Armenians since a 1988-94 war between the two former Soviet republics.
The fighting that started three days ago now appears to be spilling out of Nagorno-Karabakh, with Armenia and Azerbaijan trading accusations of direct fire into their territories. They also blame each other for starting the conflict.
In scale and scope, the fighting that broke out on Sunday surpasses the periodic escalations of recent years, involving heavy artillery, tanks, missiles and drones.
So far there are more than 100 confirmed deaths among civilians and Armenian combatants killed in action. Azerbaijan does not release data on its military losses, but these can be assumed to be at least as high.
The fighting appears to be driven by an attempt by Azerbaijani forces to recapture swathes of territories occupied by Armenian forces in the Karabakh war after the Soviet Union collapsed. Hundreds of thousands of ethnic Azeris were displaced from these areas in 1992-4.
...
How might events play out?Rapid and consolidated military success, either through recapture of significant territory by Azerbaijan, or the repelling of Azerbaijani operations by Armenian forces, could open up scope for a ceasefire, but trigger domestic instability in whichever side fares worse.
The longer that fighting goes on, and/or if one side is seen to be losing in a more protracted struggle, the more likely it is that Russia and Turkey will face difficult choices over whether to become more involved.
--
20-9-29 Armenia says one of its fighter jets was shot down by a Turkish jet in a major escalation of the conflict over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region. The Armenian foreign ministry said the pilot of the Soviet-made SU-25 died after being hit by the Turkish F-16 in Armenian air space.Turkey, which is backing Azerbaijan in the conflict, has denied the claim. Azerbaijan has repeatedly stated that its air force does not have F-16 fighter jets. However, Turkey does.
Nearly 100 people, including civilians, have died in three days of fighting over the disputed mountainous region. The enclave is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan, but has been run by ethnic Armenians since a 1988-94 war between the two former Soviet republics.
The fighting that started three days ago now appears to be spilling out of Nagorno-Karabakh, with Armenia and Azerbaijan trading accusations of direct fire into their territories. They also blame each other for starting the conflict.
While Turkey openly backs Azerbaijan, Russia - which has a military base in Armenia but is also friendly with Azerbaijan - has called for an immediate ceasefire.
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igitur quī dēsīderat pācem praeparet bellum
igitur quī dēsīderat pācem praeparet bellum therefore, he who desires peace, let him prepare for war sī vīs pācem, parā bellum if you wan...
