Friday, June 23, 2023

23-6-23 Orcine Ructions ➾ переворот ➾ fizzle

23-8-26 Game Of 🇷🇺 Generals. Prigozhin Assassinated. Ruscian Ructions. U24 > .
23-6-23 Ruscia-Prigozhin War | PMC Wagner's March on Rostov (subs) | Katz > . (title)
23-6-24 What’s Next for Russia as Wagner Forces Head to Moscow | WSJ > .
23-6-24 [Lukashenko lures Prigozhin] - Rebellion Ends, Wagners Withdraw - Such > .
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23-6-27 Ben Hodges - Post-Coup Likely Future for P00ti and the orcs - Silicon > .
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23-6-29 Wagner's mutiny = tip of the iceberg of Ruscia's fractures | Aliona Hlivco > .
23-7-1 Wagner Rebellion. [Next for] Prigozhin and His Wagner Fighters? - U24 > .
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
23-8-23 Prigozhin Dead [??] | Predictable Outcome of P00ti "Deal" (subs) - Katz > .23-9-5 Fatal Flaw that Doomed the Wagner (PMC) Group - Spaniel > .
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Girkin (Strelkov; Гиркин-Стрелков) 
23-7-22 Strelkov-Girkin JAILED in Moscow! | Artur > .
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Navalny versus P00tin ..
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8:45 pm EEST Prigozhin says Wagner will stop march on Moscow: Wagner Group's founder Yevgeny Prigozhin said on June 24 that the mercenaries would stop their march on Moscow and withdraw to military camps.

5:59 am EEST Rostov Oblast governor asks residents to stay calm as media reports administrative buildings seized in city of Rostov: Rostov Oblast Governor Vasily Golubev asked residents to stay calm and remain at home as reports emerged of soldiers and military vehicles on the streets of the southern Russian city of Rostov and the takeover of administrative buildings in Rostov by unidentified [little green Wagner] men.

6:56 am EEST Moscow mayor says 'anti-terrorist measures' being taken in city: Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin said in a post on Telegram that "anti-terrorist measures" were being taken in the city "in connection with the incoming information."

Prigozhin accuses Russian army of attacking Wagner, threatens to respond: Yevgeny Prigozhin, chief of the Wagner Group mercenaries, said Russian Defense Ministry attacked the group's bases in the rear. "We have 25,000 (soldiers), and we're going to respond," he said.

A coup d'état ((listen); 'stroke of state'), also known as a coup or an overthrow, is a seizure and removal of a government and its powers. Typically, it is an illegal seizure of power by a political faction, politician, rebel group, military, or a dictator. Many scholars consider a coup successful when the usurpers seize and hold power for at least seven days.
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Monday, June 12, 2023

23-6-12 Addio, Berlusconi


Silvio Berlusconi (listen); 29 September 1936 – 12 June 2023 was an Italian media tycoon, politician, and billionaire who served as the prime minister of Italy in four governments from 1994 to 1995, 2001 to 2006 and 2008 to 2011. He was a member of the Chamber of Deputies from 1994 to 2013; a member of the Senate of the Republic from 2022 to his death in 2023, and previously from March to November 2013; and a member of the European Parliament (MEP) from 2019 to 2022, and previously from 1999 to 2001. With a net worth of US$6.8 billion as of June 2023, Berlusconi was the third-wealthiest person in Italy at the time of his death.

Berlusconi was Prime Minister for nine years in total, making him the longest serving post-war Prime Minister of Italy, and the third longest-serving since Italian unification, after Benito Mussolini and Giovanni Giolitti. He was the leader of the centre-right party Forza Italia from 1994 to 2009, and its successor party The People of Freedom from 2009 to 2013. He led the revived Forza Italia from 2013 to 2023. Berlusconi was the senior G8 leader from 2009 until 2011, and he held the record for hosting G8 summits (having hosted three summits in Italy). After serving nearly 19 years as a member of the Chamber of Deputies, the country's lower house, he became a member of the Senate following the 2013 Italian general election.

On 1 August 2013, Berlusconi was convicted of tax fraud by the Supreme Court of Cassation. His four-year prison sentence was confirmed, and he was banned from holding public office for two years. Aged 76, he was exempted from direct imprisonment, and instead served his sentence by doing unpaid community service. Three years of his sentence was automatically pardoned under Italian law; because he had been sentenced to gross imprisonment for more than two years, he was banned from holding legislative office for six years and expelled from the Senate. Berlusconi pledged to stay leader of Forza Italia throughout his custodial sentence and public office ban. After his ban ended, Berlusconi ran for and was elected as an MEP at the 2019 European Parliament election. He returned to the Senate after winning a seat in the 2022 Italian general election.

Berlusconi was known for his populist political style and brash personality. In his long tenure, he was often accused of being an authoritarian leader and a strongman.
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Tuesday, June 6, 2023

23-6-6 P00ti's Monstrous War Crime -- Destruction of Kakhovka Dam

23-6-6 Novaya Kakhovka HPP Blown Up - [Despicable Desperate Coward] > .
23-7-6 Kakhovka Dam destruction: Catastrophe’s aftermath, Dnipro River - KI > .
23-6-26 Destruction of Dam is Changing the War in Ukraine - Real > .
23-6-10 [Orcine] Destruction of the Kakhovka dam is Ecocide - Silicon Curtain > .
23-6-9 SSU’s interception confirms: [Ruscians destroyed] Kakhovka HPP > .
23-6-9 R-U: '99% sure' it was the Russians who blew the dam - Sky > .
23-6-8 YES - Russia Destroyed the Dam - Jake Broe > .
23-6-6 Ruscia Destroyed the Dam and Has Worse Planned - Jake > .
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22-10-25 Only Russia would benefit from blowing up Nova Kakhovka dam - Forces > .
22-10-24 Kakhovka dam mined by russian orcs, danger of floods in Kherson - Anna > .
22-10-23 Model of a 200 - 1800 m dam break at the Nova Kakhovka dam > .

Tuesday, June 6 7:08 am Ukrainian military: Russian forces blow up Kakhovka dam: Ukraine's Southern Operational Command reported early on June 6 that Russian forces blew up the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant. "The scale of the destruction, the speed and volumes of water, and the likely areas of inundation are being clarified," the military said on their official Facebook page.
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In November 2022, President Volodymyr Zelensky said that any attempt by Russian forces to blow up the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant, flooding Ukrainian territory and dewatering the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant would mean that Russia is “declaring war on the whole world.”

Zelensky's warning then came after General Sergey Surovikin, head of Russian forces in Ukraine, said Kyiv planned to flood the area below the Kakhovka power plant.

On Oct. 22, the Institute for the Study of War reported that Russia would likely try to blow up the dam at the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant to cover its withdrawal and "prevent Ukraine's forces from pursuing Russian forces deeper into Russian-occupied Kherson Oblast."

The Kakhovka hydroelectric dam in southern Ukraine was captured in the initial push of Russia's 2022 invasion. It has strategic importance, supplying the Russian-annexed Crimean peninsula with water. Located on the Dnipro River, the dam is one of the biggest facilities of its kind in Ukraine.

"There would also be probable secondary effects including the cutting of cooling water for Europe´s largest nuclear power plant ZPP, which requires cooling even for the shut down reactors. A radiological disaster is a separate model, but with prevailing winds blowing eastwards it would generally be worse in the by Russia temporarily occupied territories or even within Russia itself if any fallout reaches the internationally accepted borders of Russia east of the Donbas. Exact results would be highly dependent on the weather conditions."

Worst case modelling for Nova Kakhovka dam break (UPDATED): First off, dams like the Dnipro dam in Nova Kahkovka are protected by the laws of war and the Geneva convention. Destroying it would be considered a weapon of mass destruction and an indiscriminate war crime. Article 56 of the 1977 Additional Protocol I provides:
“Works and installations containing dangerous forces, namely dams, dykes and nuclear electrical generating stations, shall not be made the object of attack, even where these objects are military objectives, if such attack may cause the release of dangerous forces and consequent severe losses among the civilian population. Other military objectives located at or in the vicinity of these works or installations shall not be made the object of attack if such attack may cause the release of dangerous forces from the works or installations and consequent severe losses among the civilian population.”

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23-6-11 "The uncertainty in" [tiny, desperate] "Russian minds may have been one reason for their sabotage of the Kakhovka Dam. Quite apart from its horrific humanitarian and ecological consequences, the flooding of low ground and widening of the Dnipro may have delayed UAF offensive operations in that area for a time. But there are expert voices saying the floodwaters will subside within the next five to seven days, and the ground will rapidly begin to dry in the summer heat. So the likely intended effect hoped for by the Russian side — of making crossings of the Dnipro harder — is probably going to be relatively short-lived."

23-6-7 After destroying the Nova Kakhovka dam and stranding thousands of Ukrainians in the catastrophic flood zone, Russians prevented people in occupied territories from fleeing or rescuing others, multiple accounts revealed on June 7.

23-6-8 7:27 am
ISW: Destruction of Kakhovka dam 'significantly changing' Kherson front line. The flooding caused by the dam's destruction has "heavily disrupted" Russian defensive positions on the east bank of the Dnipro River, especially Russian first-line positions in Hola Prystan and Oleshky, the Institute of the Study of War said in its latest update.
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The New York Times (NYT) reported that engineering and munitions experts believe that a deliberate explosion was the likely cause of KHPP dam’s collapse on June 6. NYT reported that a blast within an enclosed space would cause the most damage, whereas external detonations – such as by targeted missile or artillery strikes – would only exert a fraction of the force necessary to breach the dam. The NYT quoted the experts as acknowledging that the KHPP sustained damage from military operations prior to the collapse but questioning whether this prior damage alone was sufficient to collapse the dam. NYT reported that the dam was first breached in its middle, close to the KHPP on the Russian-held east (left) riverbank, and that more of the dam collapsed throughout the day, a pattern that one expert characterized as inconsistent with the dam failing due to prior damage.
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The Nova Kakhovka Dam in Ukraine by Timothy Snyder
Part of Timothy Snyder's warning against giving air-time to Ruscist LIES: "2. When a Russian spokesperson claims that Ukraine did something (e.g. blow a dam), this is not part of a story of an event in the real world. It is part of a different story: about all the outrageous claims Russia has made about Ukraine since invading in 2014."
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"7. Dams are objects. How they can be destroyed is a subject for experts. This NYT story has the merit of treating dams as physical rather than narrative objects. It becomes clear that the dam was likely destroyed by an explosion from the inside."
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"8. Russia was in control of the relevant part of the dam when it exploded. This is an elemental part of the context. ... Russia had the means. Ukraine did not."
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"11/10 Objectivity does not mean treating an event as a coin flip between two public statements. It demands thinking about the objects and the settings that readers require for understanding amidst uncertainty."
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Comment: "I did some work on dams in the past as a contractor. I'm also Dutch. I like to point out two things regarding the dam; The footage of the explosion of the dam does not match the damage. I bet its older footage. My second point is that it looks like only a part of the utility tunnel has been taken out. To do this it must have been mined from inside and outside (stressed retaining wall) spontaneously. But it also means only a upper segment is now breached. Most of the underwater part will probably hold as long as there are no follow up blasting. Thus the dam wil retain a large portion of the water. Most models will be showing a full breach of the dam, probably as an exercise or dramatic effect But I think that this is not the case here. A very risky and stupid move from the Russians. But also one that proves they know they will not be coming back to the region."

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Monday, June 5, 2023

Plans Love Silence

23-6-5 Ukrainian government sends cryptic [OpSec] message to Ruscia > .
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Counteroffensive - Контрнаступ (coming soon)

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23-4-20 OFFENSIVE GUARD? Ukraine is Preparing for Breakthrough - U24 > .
23-6-9 Ukraine won't rush Western tanks into counter-offensive - Forces > .
23-6-6 Can Ukraine's counter-offensive [WILL] succeed? - Economist > .
23-6-5 Is Ukraine's counter-offensive under way? - Forces > .
23-6-4 Ukrainian Armed Forces. Discover Ukraine - Anna > .
23-6-3 Strikes on Russia | Ukraine's Shaping Operations (subs) - Katz > .
23-5-31 Talking Tactics: 🇺🇦 counteroffensive, M2 Bradley, Leopard 2, F-16 - U24 > .
23-5-29 Ukrainian Battle Prayer > .
23-5-28 P00ti losing control of his 'warlords' - Ben Hodges - Times > .
23-5-25 Counteroffensive: AFU (ЗСУ) Tactical Training - U24 > .
23-5-20 Ukrainian counteroffensive — need to know - U24 > .
23-5-20 P00 Seeks to Attrite Ukraine | [West Won't Tire] (subs) - Katz > .
23-5-13 Ukrainians Conduct Aerial Ambush - Reporting > .
23-5-12 Ukraine - Storm Shadow stealthy cruise missiles from UK - Binkov > .
23-5-11 Short update on the Assault Guard of Ukraine - Starsky > .
23-5-11 Some thoughts on Ukrainian Counter Offensive - Anna > .
23-5-9 Ukraine War Updates Part 1: The Inevitables || Peter Zeihan > .
23-5-7 Ukraine's Planned Counteroffensive - readiness, leaks - Perun > . 
23-5-6 Calm Before Storm. Awaiting Ukrainian Offensive [map] - gtbt > .
23-5-3 How war is going — Early May 2023 - Anders > .
23-4-30 Wagner Whines | Ukrainian Offensive; May 9 V-Day (subs) - Katz > .
> AFU >>
How will we know when the offensive begins?: Ben Hodges: "We won’t, until after it’s started.  I expect that the General Staff is conducting a wide range of so-called shaping operations that help set the conditions ahead of the main attack.  These would include attacks by partisans and special forces to destroy/disrupt transportation networks, cause confusion in the Russian rear area, and gather intelligence."

"They would also include drone strikes and long-range artillery/rocket strikes against critical Russian assets and logistics sites and attacks on air defense systems. All of these are intended to reduce Russian capabilities and flexibility ahead of the attack and to mislead the Russians as to the precise locations of where the main blow(s) will fall."

"I don’t think that the Russians have the flexibility to react if/when the Ukrainians finally reveal their main effort, and I have not seen any evidence that Russian air power is effective against moving targets."

➾ 2023 ..
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Friday, June 2, 2023

23-6-2 Special Military FAILURE

23-6-2 Blinken: Russia’s Military Is ‘a Case Study in Failure’ | WSJ > .
23-7-16 War's Possible Timeframe | Krumblin Facts  (subs) - Katz > .
23-7-15 Orcine Eruptions | Prigozhin's Mutiny to Popov (subs) - Katz > .
23-6-6 Fragility of Ruscia’s Autocratic System b/o Major Battlefield Defeat - Si > .
During a speech in Helsinki on 23-6-2, Secretary of State Antony Blinken referred to Russia’s military as “the second-strongest in Ukraine” and said that Russia is estimated to have suffered more than 100,000 casualties in the last six months.

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igitur quī dēsīderat pācem praeparet bellum

igitur quī dēsīderat pācem praeparet bellum    therefore, he who desires peace, let him prepare for war sī vīs pācem, parā bellum if you wan...

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