Saturday, August 19, 2023

Counteroffensive - Контрнаступ (early)

23-8-24 Issues with the Ukrainian Offensive - R-U - K&G > .23-8-9 When will AFU deploy rest of best-equipped armored brigades? - F > .
23-8-3 R-U War - 1st Conclusions from 2022; New Challenges 2023 - ÖstB > .
23-7-28 Bridge Warfare: 2nd on Crimean Bridge; Infrastructure in War - U24 > .
23-7-28 Ukrainian Offensive | Scale Less Than Billing (subs) - Katz > .
23-7-12 Logistics. Ruscia's Fragility in Zaporizhia [Mapped] - gtbt > .
23-7-11 How is the war going? — Mid July 2023 - Anders > .
23-7-11 Why US is (finally!) sending cluster munitions to Ukraine - Forces > .
23-7-10 Why Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Is Moving Slowly | WSJ > .
23-6-30 Fog of War & AFU Counteroffensive: Three Interpretations - Spaniel > .
23-6-30 Z-bloggers claim "6 AFU brigades" attacking on Eastern front - M&H > .
23-6-27 Ukrainian Counteroffensive Begins - K&G > .
23-6-25 Ukrainian Forces Landed across Dnipro | Ruzzians run - Denys > .
23-6-11 Ukraine's Offensive | Swapped Roles, New Disposition (subs) - Katz > .
23-6-10 SatIm: U's Counteroffensive vs R's Defensive Fortifications - Such > .Helm's Deep 2 - Bjørn Medved >> .
Preparation
Conduct 
   Initial > (combat assault) phase
   Breakthrough phase
Exploitation 
Stability 

23-6-11 Think Ukraine’s Offensive Has Started? Wait for the Heavy Brigades by Ben Hodges . "Some have dated the start of this campaign to June 4, two days before Russia’s sabotage of the Kakhovka Dam on the Dnipro River on June 6. That was likely the moment when General Valerii Zaluzhny, the UAF commander-in-chief, decided — in my view — that his three preconditions had been met and that he could therefore give the green light. He would have asked:
  • Is there enough combat power (armored brigades with tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, engineers, artillery, air defense and logistics) to be able to penetrate the Russian linear defenses and achieve their assigned tasks, which probably includes cutting the “land bridge” from Russia to Crimea, and also securing the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant?;
  • Have Russian defenses and logistics been sufficiently degraded; has the Russian rear area and transportation network been adequately disrupted; and are the Russian leadership confused enough as to the aim and timings of the UAF offensive?; and
  • Is the ground dry enough to support the movement of hundreds of heavy, tracked, armored vehicles?"

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sī vīs pācem, parā bellum

igitur quī dēsīderat pācem praeparet bellum    therefore, he who desires peace, let him prepare for war sī vīs pācem, parā bellum if you wan...