Tuesday, June 6, 2023

23-6-6 P00ti's Monstrous War Crime -- Destruction of Kakhovka Dam

23-6-6 Novaya Kakhovka HPP Blown Up - [Despicable Desperate Coward] > .
23-7-6 Kakhovka Dam destruction: Catastrophe’s aftermath, Dnipro River - KI > .
23-6-26 Destruction of Dam is Changing the War in Ukraine - Real > .
23-6-10 [Orcine] Destruction of the Kakhovka dam is Ecocide - Silicon Curtain > .
23-6-9 SSU’s interception confirms: [Ruscians destroyed] Kakhovka HPP > .
23-6-9 R-U: '99% sure' it was the Russians who blew the dam - Sky > .
23-6-8 YES - Russia Destroyed the Dam - Jake Broe > .
23-6-6 Ruscia Destroyed the Dam and Has Worse Planned - Jake > .
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22-10-25 Only Russia would benefit from blowing up Nova Kakhovka dam - Forces > .
22-10-24 Kakhovka dam mined by russian orcs, danger of floods in Kherson - Anna > .
22-10-23 Model of a 200 - 1800 m dam break at the Nova Kakhovka dam > .

Tuesday, June 6 7:08 am Ukrainian military: Russian forces blow up Kakhovka dam: Ukraine's Southern Operational Command reported early on June 6 that Russian forces blew up the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant. "The scale of the destruction, the speed and volumes of water, and the likely areas of inundation are being clarified," the military said on their official Facebook page.
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In November 2022, President Volodymyr Zelensky said that any attempt by Russian forces to blow up the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant, flooding Ukrainian territory and dewatering the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant would mean that Russia is “declaring war on the whole world.”

Zelensky's warning then came after General Sergey Surovikin, head of Russian forces in Ukraine, said Kyiv planned to flood the area below the Kakhovka power plant.

On Oct. 22, the Institute for the Study of War reported that Russia would likely try to blow up the dam at the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant to cover its withdrawal and "prevent Ukraine's forces from pursuing Russian forces deeper into Russian-occupied Kherson Oblast."

The Kakhovka hydroelectric dam in southern Ukraine was captured in the initial push of Russia's 2022 invasion. It has strategic importance, supplying the Russian-annexed Crimean peninsula with water. Located on the Dnipro River, the dam is one of the biggest facilities of its kind in Ukraine.

"There would also be probable secondary effects including the cutting of cooling water for Europe´s largest nuclear power plant ZPP, which requires cooling even for the shut down reactors. A radiological disaster is a separate model, but with prevailing winds blowing eastwards it would generally be worse in the by Russia temporarily occupied territories or even within Russia itself if any fallout reaches the internationally accepted borders of Russia east of the Donbas. Exact results would be highly dependent on the weather conditions."

Worst case modelling for Nova Kakhovka dam break (UPDATED): First off, dams like the Dnipro dam in Nova Kahkovka are protected by the laws of war and the Geneva convention. Destroying it would be considered a weapon of mass destruction and an indiscriminate war crime. Article 56 of the 1977 Additional Protocol I provides:
“Works and installations containing dangerous forces, namely dams, dykes and nuclear electrical generating stations, shall not be made the object of attack, even where these objects are military objectives, if such attack may cause the release of dangerous forces and consequent severe losses among the civilian population. Other military objectives located at or in the vicinity of these works or installations shall not be made the object of attack if such attack may cause the release of dangerous forces from the works or installations and consequent severe losses among the civilian population.”

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23-6-11 "The uncertainty in" [tiny, desperate] "Russian minds may have been one reason for their sabotage of the Kakhovka Dam. Quite apart from its horrific humanitarian and ecological consequences, the flooding of low ground and widening of the Dnipro may have delayed UAF offensive operations in that area for a time. But there are expert voices saying the floodwaters will subside within the next five to seven days, and the ground will rapidly begin to dry in the summer heat. So the likely intended effect hoped for by the Russian side — of making crossings of the Dnipro harder — is probably going to be relatively short-lived."

23-6-7 After destroying the Nova Kakhovka dam and stranding thousands of Ukrainians in the catastrophic flood zone, Russians prevented people in occupied territories from fleeing or rescuing others, multiple accounts revealed on June 7.

23-6-8 7:27 am
ISW: Destruction of Kakhovka dam 'significantly changing' Kherson front line. The flooding caused by the dam's destruction has "heavily disrupted" Russian defensive positions on the east bank of the Dnipro River, especially Russian first-line positions in Hola Prystan and Oleshky, the Institute of the Study of War said in its latest update.
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The New York Times (NYT) reported that engineering and munitions experts believe that a deliberate explosion was the likely cause of KHPP dam’s collapse on June 6. NYT reported that a blast within an enclosed space would cause the most damage, whereas external detonations – such as by targeted missile or artillery strikes – would only exert a fraction of the force necessary to breach the dam. The NYT quoted the experts as acknowledging that the KHPP sustained damage from military operations prior to the collapse but questioning whether this prior damage alone was sufficient to collapse the dam. NYT reported that the dam was first breached in its middle, close to the KHPP on the Russian-held east (left) riverbank, and that more of the dam collapsed throughout the day, a pattern that one expert characterized as inconsistent with the dam failing due to prior damage.
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The Nova Kakhovka Dam in Ukraine by Timothy Snyder
Part of Timothy Snyder's warning against giving air-time to Ruscist LIES: "2. When a Russian spokesperson claims that Ukraine did something (e.g. blow a dam), this is not part of a story of an event in the real world. It is part of a different story: about all the outrageous claims Russia has made about Ukraine since invading in 2014."
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"7. Dams are objects. How they can be destroyed is a subject for experts. This NYT story has the merit of treating dams as physical rather than narrative objects. It becomes clear that the dam was likely destroyed by an explosion from the inside."
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"8. Russia was in control of the relevant part of the dam when it exploded. This is an elemental part of the context. ... Russia had the means. Ukraine did not."
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"11/10 Objectivity does not mean treating an event as a coin flip between two public statements. It demands thinking about the objects and the settings that readers require for understanding amidst uncertainty."
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Comment: "I did some work on dams in the past as a contractor. I'm also Dutch. I like to point out two things regarding the dam; The footage of the explosion of the dam does not match the damage. I bet its older footage. My second point is that it looks like only a part of the utility tunnel has been taken out. To do this it must have been mined from inside and outside (stressed retaining wall) spontaneously. But it also means only a upper segment is now breached. Most of the underwater part will probably hold as long as there are no follow up blasting. Thus the dam wil retain a large portion of the water. Most models will be showing a full breach of the dam, probably as an exercise or dramatic effect But I think that this is not the case here. A very risky and stupid move from the Russians. But also one that proves they know they will not be coming back to the region."

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sī vīs pācem, parā bellum

igitur quī dēsīderat pācem praeparet bellum    therefore, he who desires peace, let him prepare for war sī vīs pācem, parā bellum if you wan...