20th+: AI Weaponry

The US and its allies should reject calls for a global ban on AI-powered autonomous weapons systems, according to an official report commissioned for the American President and Congress. It says that artificial intelligence will "compress decision time frames" and require military responses humans cannot make quickly enough alone. And it warns Russia and China would be unlikely to keep to any such treaty. [Yup! WW2 demonstrated that belligerents take advantage of appeasers, and the CCP and Kremlin have repeatedly proved untrustworthy.]

Critics, such as Prof Noel Sharkey, spokesman for the Campaign To Stop Killer Robots, claim the proposals risk driving an "irresponsible" arms race, which could lead to the "proliferation of AI weapons making decisions about who to kill." [Unfortunately, China and Russia are as unlikely to honor the terms of a ban as Hitler and Stalin were likely to honor the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact.]

The report counters that if autonomous weapons systems have been properly tested and are authorised for use by a human commander, then they should be consistent with International Humanitarian Law.

Much of the 750-page report focuses on how to counter China's ambition to be a world leader in AI by 2030. It says that senior military leaders have warned the US could "lose its military-technical superiority in the coming years" if China leapfrogs it by adopting AI-enabled systems more quickly - for example by using swarming drones to attack the US Navy.

The report predicts AI will transform "all aspects of military affairs", and talks of rival algorithms battling it out in the future. Although it warns that badly-designed AI systems could increase the risk of war, it adds that "defending against AI-capable adversaries without employing AI is an invitation to disaster". It does, however, draw the line at nuclear weapons, saying these should still require the explicit authorisation of the president.

The report maintains that the White House should press Moscow and Beijing to issue public commitments of their own over this matter.

Not all the report's proposals focus on the military, suggesting that the US's non-defence spending on AI-related research and development be doubled to reach $32bn (£23bn) a year by 2026.

Other proposals include:

creating a new body to help the president guide the US's wider AI policies
relaxing immigration laws to help attract talent from abroad, including an effort to increase a "brain drain" from China
creating a new university to train digitally-talented civil servants
accelerating the adoption of new technologies by the US's intelligence agencies

The report also focuses on the US's need to restrict China's ability to manufacture state-of-the-art computer chips. It advises that the US must keep at least two generations ahead of China's micro-electronics manufacturing capabilities. To do this, it says the government needs to offer large tax credits to companies which build new chip fabrication plants on US soil.

President Biden has already ordered a review of the US semiconductor industry, and last week pledged support for a $37bn plan by Congress to boost local output.

The report contends that export restrictions need to be put in place to prevent China being able to import the photolithography machines required to make the most advanced types of chips with the smallest transistors. This, it says, will require the co-operation of the governments of the Netherlands and Japan, whose companies specialise in these tools.

China's semiconductor-makers have been seeking out second-hand photolithography equipment to do this, buying up as much as 90% of available stock, according to a report in Nikkei Asia. However, these older machines are not capable of producing the most advanced chips, which are prized for use in both the latest smartphones and other consumer gadgets, as well as military applications.

In addition, the report says US firms that export chips to China should be compelled to certify they are not used to "facilitate human rights abuses", and should submit quarterly reports to the Department of Commerce listing all chip sales to China. This follows allegations that chips from American firms Intel and Nvidia were used to conduct mass surveillance against China's Uighur ethnic minority in its Xinjiang region.

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Friday, February 28, 2020

AI Weaponry

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