The formal U.S. Department of Defense review of the AUKUS pact is still ongoing, despite some news reports claiming the deal is secure. The review, initiated in June, focuses on concerns that fulfilling AUKUS commitments, particularly the sale of U.S. Virginia-class submarines to Australia, could strain U.S. production lines and diminish the U.S. own submarine fleet. The results are not yet public, and any potential outcomes could involve adjustments to timelines or cost-sharing rather than a complete cancellation of the pact.
Review and potential impact
Ongoing review: A U.S. Department of War official has stated the AUKUS initiative remains under review, and no updates are available at this time, despite earlier reports suggesting a conclusion before Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's visit to the White House.
Focus of the review: The review, initiated by a former administration official, focuses on the ability of U.S. production lines to deliver submarines to Australia by 2032 and the potential impact on the U.S. fleet size.
Australia's confidence: Australia has expressed confidence in the deal and has been involved in the review process, making new defense spending commitments as the review continues.
Potential outcomes: While a full cancellation is considered unlikely, a possible outcome could be a change in delivery timelines or a renegotiation of cost-sharing arrangements.
Impact on Australia: The ongoing uncertainty forces Australia to seriously consider alternative options for submarines, as its current fleet will become outdated, potentially leading to a gap in submarine capability.
Focus of the review: The review, initiated by a former administration official, focuses on the ability of U.S. production lines to deliver submarines to Australia by 2032 and the potential impact on the U.S. fleet size.
Australia's confidence: Australia has expressed confidence in the deal and has been involved in the review process, making new defense spending commitments as the review continues.
Potential outcomes: While a full cancellation is considered unlikely, a possible outcome could be a change in delivery timelines or a renegotiation of cost-sharing arrangements.
Impact on Australia: The ongoing uncertainty forces Australia to seriously consider alternative options for submarines, as its current fleet will become outdated, potentially leading to a gap in submarine capability.
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