Tuesday, January 27, 2015

Black Sea Geopolitics

23-1-26 Pan-Turkism & Turkey's Ambitions in Central Asia - gtbt > .
22-1-27 How Erdoğan Destroyed Turkey (doc) - My Take > .

Monday, January 26, 2015

China-Russia Alliance?

2017 A Chinese-Russian alliance: tRUMP's Nightmare? - VisPol > .

Crimea Crises

1950s Origins of the Crimean Crisis - Cold War > .
23-8-31 P00ti’s Black Sea blockade is a sham | Defence in Depth - Telegraph > .
23-8-20 Naval Drones | New Unmanned Warfare Capabilities (subs) - Katz > .
23-8-10 AFU sea drones work - Physics & PsychOp vs Ruscian fleet | Tele > .
23-8-6 Turkish Strategy & R-U War - Arms, Drones, Economics - Perun > . skip > .
22-7-21 Why Every NATO Member Joined (Why Others Haven't) - Spaniel > .
22-1-27 Kazakhstan & Ukraine: Russia's Political and Military Manipulations - VP > .
22-1-10 Why Ukraine is Not a NATO Member - NATO > .
Ukraine, Belarus, Russia, Poland, NATO - Compass >> .

Crimea Crisis ..

Crimea (Крым, tr. Krym; Крим, Krym; Къырым, Kirim/Qırım; Κιμμερία/Ταυρική, Kimmería/Taurikḗ) is a peninsula located on the northern coast of the Black Sea in Eastern Europe that is almost completely surrounded by both the Black Sea and the smaller Sea of Azov to the northeast. Crimea is located south of the Ukrainian region of Kherson, to which it is connected by the Isthmus of Perekop, and west of the Russian region of Kuban, from which it is separated by the Strait of Kerch though linked by the Crimean Bridge since 2018. The Arabat Spit is located to the northeast, a narrow strip of land that separates a system of lagoons named Sivash from the Sea of Azov. Across the Black Sea to its west is Romania, and to its south, Turkey.

Crimea (or the Tauric Peninsula, as it was called from antiquity until the early modern period) has historically been at the boundary between the classical world and the Pontic–Caspian steppe. Its southern fringe was colonised by the Greeks, the Persians, the Romans, the Byzantine Empire, the Crimean Goths, the Genoese and the Ottoman Empire, while at the same time its interior was occupied by a changing cast of invading steppe nomads and empires, such as the Cimmerians, Scythians, Sarmatians, Goths, Alans, Bulgars, Huns, Khazars, Kipchaks, Mongols and the Golden Horde. Crimea and adjacent territories were united in the Crimean Khanate during the 15th to 18th century.

In 1783, Crimea was annexed by the Russian Empire as the result of the Russo-Turkish War (1768–1774). Following the Russian Revolution of 1917, Crimea became an autonomous republic within the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic in the USSR. During World War II, Crimea was downgraded to the Crimean Oblast after its entire indigenous population, the Crimean Tatars, were deported to Central Asia, an act recognized as a genocide by Ukraine and three other countries. In 1954, it was transferred to the Ukrainian SSR from the Russian SFSR.[5]

With the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine was reestablished as an independent state in 1991, and most of the peninsula was reorganized as the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, while the city of Sevastopol retained its special status within Ukraine. The 1997 Partition Treaty on the Status and Conditions of the Black Sea Fleet partitioned the former Soviet Black Sea Fleet and allowed Russia to continue basing its fleet in Crimea: both the Ukrainian Naval Forces and Russian's Black Sea Fleet were to be headquartered in Sevastopol. Ukraine extended Russia's lease of the naval facilities under the 2010 Kharkiv Pact in exchange for further discounted natural gas.

In February 2014, following the 2014 Ukrainian revolution that ousted the Ukrainian President, Viktor Yanukovych, Russia annexed Crimea after a military intervention by pro-Russian separatists and Russian Armed Forces. A controversial Crimea-wide referendum, illegal under the Ukrainian and Crimean constitutions, was held on the issue of reunification with Russia; its official results showed over 90% support for reunification, however, the vote was boycotted by many loyal to Ukraine and declared illegitimate by Western governments and the United Nations. Russia formally annexed Crimea on 18 March 2014, incorporating the Republic of Crimea and the federal city of Sevastopol as the 84th and 85th federal subjects of Russia. The status of Crimea is disputed. It is claimed by Ukraine and recognized as Ukrainian by the United Nations and most other countries.

Saturday, January 24, 2015

Europe's Three Seas Initiative

Europe's plan to checkmate Russia - CaRe > .
Black Sea & Russia-Turkey Conflicts > .
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Poland's strategy of the Intermarium > .
21-7-14 Lithuania accuses Belarus of using refugees as 'political weapon' - BBC > .
21-6-26 Lukashenko losing grip on Belarus? - Into > .

NATO

Russia has regained much of its ability to project power abroad, but twelve nations in East Europe are designing a deterrence known as Three Seas (launched in 2015 by Croatian and Polish policymakers).
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The Three Seas Initiative (3SI, TSI, I3M), also known as the Baltic, Adriatic, Black Sea (BABS) Initiative, or simply the Three Seas, is a forum of twelve states in the European Union, located in Central and Eastern Europe. The combined area connects the Adriatic Sea, Baltic Sea, and Black Sea. The initiative aims to create a regional dialogue on a variety of questions affecting the member states. The twelve members met for their first summit in 2016, in Dubrovnik.

The Three Seas Initiative has twelve member states along a north–south axis from the Baltic Sea to the Adriatic Sea and the Black SeaAustria#, Bulgaria*, Croatia*, Czech Republic*, Estonia*, Hungary*, Latvia*, Lithuania*, Poland*, Romania*, Slovakia* and Slovenia*. [* = NATO member; # = NATO partner]

The initiative held its first summit in Dubrovnik on 25–26 August 2016. The two-day event ended with a declaration of co-operation in economic matters, particularly in the field of energy as well as transport and communications infrastructure.
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Intermarium (Polish: Międzymorze; Ukrainian: Міжмор'я, Belarusian: Міжмор’е) was a geopolitical project conceived by politicians in successor states of the former Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth in several iterations, some of which anticipated the inclusion as well of other, neighboring states. The proposed multinational polity would have extended across territories lying between the Baltic, Black and Adriatic Seas, hence the Latinate name Intermarium, meaning "Between-Seas".

Prospectively a federation of Central and Eastern European countries, the post-World War I Intermarium plan pursued by Polish leader and former political prisoner of the Russian Empire, Józef Piłsudski (1867–1935), sought to recruit to the proposed federation the Baltic states (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia), FinlandBelarus, Ukraine, Hungary, Romania, Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia. The Polish name Międzymorze (from między, "between"; and morze, "sea"), meaning "Between-Seas", was rendered into Latin as "Intermarium."

The proposed federation was meant to emulate the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth, stretching from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea, that, from the end of the 16th century to the end of the 18th, had united the Kingdom of Poland and the Grand Duchy of Lithuania. Intermarium complemented Piłsudski's other geopolitical vision—Prometheism, whose goal was the dismemberment of the Russian Empire and that Empire's divestment of its territorial acquisitions.

Intermarium was, however, perceived by some Lithuanians as a threat to their newly established independence, and by some Ukrainians as a threat to their aspirations for independence, and while France backed the proposal, it was opposed by Russia and by most other Western powers. Within two decades of the failure of Piłsudski's grand scheme, all the countries that he had viewed as candidates for membership in the Intermarium federation had fallen to the Soviet Union or Nazi Germany, except for Finland (which suffered some territorial losses in the 1939–40 Winter War with the Soviet Union).



sī vīs pācem, parā bellum

igitur quī dēsīderat pācem praeparet bellum    therefore, he who desires peace, let him prepare for war sī vīs pācem, parā bellum if you wan...