cāsūs bellī - pro libertate >> .
Comment:
The real cause for the war is fear on the part of Putin. He has five fears:
1) Fear of losing foreign revenue from the sale of oil and natural gas when Ukraine develops its own reserves, and becomes a competitor to Russia in the open market. If Ukraine joins the EU, they will likely give better prices to Europe, and reduce their foreign exports. Since these exports account for a large portion of Russia's external trade, it could devastate their economy. The areas that contain these oil and gas reserves are, not surprisingly, in the region of the Crimea (particularly offshore) and the Donbass. Big surprise these are the areas Russia took control of in 2014.
2) Fear of a wealthy free market Ukraine that is a liberal democracy appearing on Russia's doorsteps. This would be a bitter pill to swallow, since Ukraine has actually started in a worse economic position than Russia. If Ukraine suddenly becomes a dynamic economy with an open society, it will demonstrate beyond a doubt the bankruptcy of Russia's current system, and overthrow everything that Putin has been working towards. It will also show the fallacy of "Russkiy Mir" and Dugin's "Foundations of Geopolitics", things that are the bedrock of Putin's idealized Russia. In Putin's mind it is better to kill the messenger than listen to the message.
3) Fear of losing Crimea is the direct cause of this war, in my mind. Putin made his land grab in 2014 with two things in mind: extending Russian influence over the entirety of the northern Black Sea region (imperialism), and controlling the oil and gas reserves. By placing long-range anti-ship and anti-aircraft missile systems in Crimea, Putin is extending his imperialistic control of the region almost to the shores of Turkey in the south and Romania in the west. This feeds into his desire to dominate and control, i.e. Putin's megalomania. The oil and gas issue is discussed in 1) above. Problem is, when they took control of Crimea in 2014, Russia did not gain control of the North Crimea Canal, the primary source of water for irrigation and human consumption in the region. Ukraine blocked the canal, and in the intervening years the reservoirs in Crimea have dropped to 7% capacity. Using some quick and dirty math, this indicates Crimea would had to have been evacuated of most of its population this summer. Putin poured a lot of money into building the Kerch Bridge, emplacing all the AA and anti-ship weapon systems, and improving military infrastructure. And for want of a canal he would have lost it all this year.
4) Fear of looking weak is Putin's fourth fear. He is a strongman, a megalomaniac, and they never like to look weak. He could not allow Ukraine to corner him, so instead he attacked.
5) Related to 1) and 3), Putin is afraid of losing economic, military and political leverage, particularly over the EU countries. Loss of being the primary market for the EU's energy needs means loss of economic leverage, loss of Crimea means loss of military leverage, and losing in one or both of these fields means loss of political leverage. He is afraid of Russia losing its superpower status, and ability to coerce countries into doing its bidding. Please note that in none of this does NATO show up as a reason for the war. Putin's concern about NATO is that it would provide a shield for Ukraine, and he could never fulfill his dream of a "Greater Russia" incorporating all the Slavic nations, the old Czarist dream from the 1800s.
