20th+

Firstly, we (USA) have a treaty in place within which we inspect each other's nuclear weapons. That not only provides a technical understanding of each other's nuclear capabilities, but also the competency of their procedures and crew force. Like ourselves, there are safeguards in place to restrict the usage of a nuclear weapon without the full agreement of the civilian leadership. I word it that way deliberately. Nuclear operations is specifically unautomated throughout the entire command structure. There are human beings at every level (including the top) to ensure the order is both lawful and correct. The system will not allow any singular individual to give the command to launch a nuclear weapon.

This doesn't mean a launch is impossible, but the situation needs to fit parameters lined out in doctrine and agreed upon by individuals at all levels. How this applies for a "tactical" nuclear weapon is difficult to say as Russia is essentially unique with that type of platform, but the standards for officers in this career path are well beyond the regular force. I'm also of the mind that any nuclear weapon, no matter how small the yield, is strategic in nature. I'm certain my Russian counterparts would have similar views.

As you've partly discussed, there are myriad ways to dissuade a country from a nuclear strike. There are also a plethora of options for responding, most without escalation. I'm not privy to, nor would I be able to discuss if I were, the pathways developed by the wargamers for such a scenario. But US intel and responses so far have been competent and thorough and I personally trust their judgement to make smart decisions.

There are going to be moments during the course of this war that will give the general public pause and there will be rhetoric utilized to inspire panic. These are intentional. Public opinion is a powerful force, both in a democracy and otherwise. I would suggest viewing these statements through this prism.

0:00 Introduction and Titles to "RUSSIA | A Very Real Nuclear Threat?"
00:39 Russia, Ukraine and the Nuclear Threat
01:48 The Origins of Nuclear Weapons
02:43 The Development and Spread of Nuclear Weapons
03:35 Efforts to Limit Nuclear Weapons
04:55 Why Russia May Really Consider A Nuclear Strike
06:57 A Nuclear Strike as a De-Escalation Strategy?
08:27 Western Responses to a Russian Nuclear Strike
10:20 International Reactions to a Strike

“Mobik” [мобик] is a Ukrainian portmanteaux term for a Ruscian conscript invader. It combines “mobilized” + “vatnik”. A vatnik [ватник] is a poor, uneducated person who has been zombified by stupefying Ruscist propaganda.

Wednesday, September 28, 2022

Next Ukrainian Offensive?

22-9-28 Next Ukrainian offensive? - Binkov > .

22-12-13 Spotlight on Ukraine - Ben Hodges - geonow > .

22-12-3 How Ukraine Liberated Kherson - Ruscian Invasion - K&G > .

22-11-23 Kherson Retreat & Winter Prospects [War Mapped] - gtbt > .

22-11-22 Where Will Ukraine Strike Next? 3 Main Options for Kyiv - Spaniel > .

22-11-3 Kharkiv, Kherson, Kerch Bridge - Ruscian Invasion - K&A > .

22-10-26 The winter war in Ukraine - Anders Puck Nielsen > .

22-10-20 Ukraine Continues Attacking - Russian Invasion DOC - K&G > .

22-10-15 Zaporozhye Counteroffensive? The Belarus Threat [Mapped] - gtbt > .

22-10-13 Ukraine Surprising World By Pushing Ruscian Navy Back - Sutton > .

22-10-8 Ukrainian mobilisation & force generation - (Ben Hodges) - Perun > .

22-10-13 How UKRAINE is winning the WAR - VisPol > .

Bridges = Chokepoints - Armor >> .

Failing деспот - Chink in Armor >> .

Krumblin - αλλο >> .

Phase 7 - Kit Telum >> .

Russian Invasion of Ukraine - K&G >> .

➾ 2022 ..

Kharkiv Counteroffensive ..

Kherson Counteroffensive ..

Month 8 ..

00:01:40 — What Am I Covering?
00:03:14 — LTG Ben Hodges (Ret.)
00:04:16 — Ukraine Pre-February
00:05:29 — Wartime Evolution
00:07:28 — Force '23 - Ukraine's Military Objectives
00:08:37 — The Force Requirement
00:09:37 — Manpower vs Metal
00:10:46 — Interview pt.I: Ukrn Force Generation
00:11:34 — Interview pt.I: Answer
00:13:23 — Can It Be Done?
00:14:02 — Heavy Weapons
00:14:10 — Warsaw Standard
00:15:47 — Interview pt.II: Equipment
00:16:16 — Interview pt.II: Answer
00:18:51 — Nato Armour?
00:20:56 — Interview pt.III - Nato Armour?
00:21:20 — Interview pt.III - Answer
00:22:33 — Maintenance and Sustainment
00:23:33 — Russia's Own Advantages
00:24:28 — Interview pt.IV: Overcoming Maintenance and Sustainment Challenges
00:24:59 — Interview pt.IV: Answer
00:29:36 — Long Range Capabilities
00:32:12 — Munition & Shell Crisis
00:33:11 — Sustaining the Soviet(+) Systems
00:35:12 — Unconventional Sources
00:35:54 — Iran's Contribution?
00:37:20 — Nato Standard in Quantity
00:38:51 — Feeding The Guns
00:39:32 — Interview pt.V: Feeding The Guns
00:40:16 — Interview pt.V: Answer
00:44:02 — Case Study: US Industry Response
00:45:54 — Case Study: US Ammo Production
00:47:40 — Is Production up to the Task?
00:49:48 — Interview pt.VI: Is the West capable of sustaining Ukraine?
00:50:22 — Interview pt.VI: Answer
00:51:36 — The Force Generation Race
00:52:03 — What About the Russian Effort?
00:52:46 — Interview pt.VII: Russian and Ukrainian Mobilisation Assessment
00:53:10 — Interview pt.VII: Answer
00:54:17 — What About The Russian Effort? - Cont.
00:55:02 — Interview pt.VIII: Likely Failure Point for the Russian Military?
00:55:33 — Interview pt.VIII: Answer
00:59:57 — Who wins the Force Generation Race?
01:00:54 — Interview pt.IX: Final Reflections and Predictions
01:01:21 — Interview pt.IX: Answer
01:04:28 — Conclusions

Tuesday, September 27, 2022

Despicable Antics

Ruscism dēlenda est ...

22-9-27 Ruscia moves to annex parts of Ukraine - Caspian > .

24-4-16 [XIR] Iran's use of [terrorist] proxies to [harm] USA and Israel - Caspian > .

23-10-23 Poland Must Defend Ukraine against Historical Rival: Russia - GeoP > .

23-10-19 [R-U & NoXious XIR Axis behind Hamas atrocities] - DiD > .

23-9-28 [Is P00ti's Krumbling Imperialist Ruscia Fascist?] - K&G > .

23-9-28 P00ti's Impoverished New Supporters | Wages of War (subs) - Katz > .

23-8-30 Fear is the new normal in Russian politics - Anders > .

23-8-29 Dictatorships: From Spin to Fear | Ruscist Regression (subs) - Katz > .

23-8-29 Major FBI Operation Targeted Qakbot Botnet - Director Wray > .

23-7-13 What's Next For Ruscia After Wagner's Mercenary Revolt - CNBC > .

23-7-2 Is Vladimir P00tin’s power coming to an end? | 60 Min Aus > .

23-6-9 Inside Wagner, Ruscia’s Secret War Company | WSJ Doc > .

23-5-13 [Ztupidity: P00, Babitchkas, Prickozhin, Fodder, nukes, Xi] - CBC > .

23-5-13 [P00pagandistic manipulation and public opinion] (subs) - Katz > .

23-4-16 R-U Hybrid Warfare: P00paganda, cyber, hybrid methods - Perun > .

23-3-15 Timothy Snyder on reasons for ICC "WAR CRIMES" decision > .

23-3-5 Wagner Group, Russian PMCs & Ukraine - Hx, R-U - Perun > .

23-2-18 Critique of Realism - Kraut > .

22-7-27 Rationality, Cooperation, Pooti and the Security of Others - Frog > .

23-2-10 Political Apoothy | Blame Game, Coping Strategies (subs) - Katz > .

23-2-8 Ruscia’s Warpaint | Once “decent” people провоенный (subs) - Katz > .

23-2-3 [Demented Krumblin Conspiracy Poopaganda] (subs) - Katz > .

23-1-22 Politics Can Destroy Armies: Factionalism & R-U War - Perun > .

23-1-19 Kremlin's Bizarre Ideological Mission for 2023 - Vlad > .

22-12-16 3 reasons why Pootin started the ztupid war (subs) - Katz > .

22-11-23 Kherson Retreat & Winter Prospects [War Mapped] - gtbt > .

22-11-22 Can Ruscia's [Press Gang] Mobilization Make a Difference? - T&P > .

23-1-12 Stories for children vs aggressive poopaganda (subs) - Katz > .

22-12-5 Russians tired of poopaganda | Gardening beats Soloviev (subs) - MK > .

22-11-13 враньо (vranyo) - Lies, coverups, Ruscian failures in Ukraine - Perun > .

22-11-12 Deconstruction of Pooti's Poopaganda Narrative - Animarchy > .

22-11-9 [Ruscist Poopaganda Promotes Suicidal] Mobilization | WSJ > .

22-11-4 Pootin's Son: Ramzan Kadyrov - Part 1 - Terrorussia > .

22-10-24 How a Russian Nuclear Strike Could Play Out | WSJ > .

22-10-21 Response if Russia uses a nuclear weapon in Ukraine? - J K-L > .

22-10-20 The Russian war narrative after mobilization - Anders > .

22-10-16 The most pointless war of the century (subs) - Katz > .

22-10-4 Nord Stream sabotage and hybrid war on Europe - Anders > .

22-10-3 MADness: RUSCIA | A Very Real Nuclear Threat? - J K-L > .

22-9-27 Upheaval and Change in Russia, Iran, and Italy | GoodFellows > .

22-10-3 Comparing Pootin to Hitler | Dream of the Great Past (subs) - Katz > .

...

21-11-28 Hybrid warfare – Kilcullen's theory about liminal maneuver - Anders > .

22-10-6 Rise of Hitler, 1930s, Invasion of Poland | WWII. E 2 (subs) - Katz > .

22-10-3 Comparing Pootin to Hitler | Dream of the Great Past (subs) - Katz > .

17-5-25 Ramzan Kadyrov: brutal tyrant, Instagram star - Vox > .

Proxy Warfare

23-8-19 Art of War: Proxy Warfare - Warographics > . skip > .

> Satellite Imagery >>

Divisive Opportunism - Alētheiai >> .

Failing деспот - Chink in Armor >> .

Failing Regime - Compass >> .

initium finis - pro libertate >> .

Krumblin - αλλο >> .

Mobilization - могилизация - αλλο >> .

P00paganda, Krumblin Ruscism - Alētheiai >> .

Pootin and the Presidents: Interviews | PBS >> .

Ruscism - Guy Lewis >> .

West v Runt - Guy >> .

Nationalsozialistische Deutsche Arbeiterpartei ..

Ruscism ..

2022 - Special Douhetesque Blunder ..

Spin Dictator to Fear Authoritarian ..

“Mobik” [мобик] is a Ukrainian portmanteaux term for a Ruscian conscript invader. It combines “mobilized” + “vatnik”. A vatnik [ватник] is a poor, uneducated person who has been zombified by stupefying Ruscist propaganda.