Game Theory - Military, Economics

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23-8-13 Game Theory Of Military Spending | EcEx > .

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24-2-26 PLARF Corruption Scandal: X-T? (Robinson Crusoe Fallacy) - Spaniel > .

24-2-19 AI Played Wargames - Result Not Reassuring - Sabine > .

24-1-11 Wargaming: Xina invading Taiwan | Mark Cancian - Decoding Geopolitics > .

23-8-13 Anders & Perun - Theories of Victory & Ruscian Political [In] Stability > .

Game Theory: The Science of Decision-Making > .

What game theory teaches us about war | Simon Sinek > .

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Game Theory 101 Course - Spaniel >> .

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Russia-Ukraine War Analysis - Spaniel >> .

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The Robinson Crusoe Fallacy: Where Probabilities Fail Us ...............

Mistaking the actions of a rational opponent as a given fact or as “nature” is termed as a Robinson Crusoe Fallacy by George Tsebelis. ... Using simple decision theory to understand the outcomes of a given situation, therefore, amounts to a fallacy. Rational actors don’t operate on absolute probabilities but rather form responses based on the actions of other players. The Robinson Crusoe fallacy provides an important frame of analysis of decisions and helps us understand the outcomes arising from the interaction of two rational players. It goes against our intuitive understanding of incentives and presents a new understanding of the role of policy in increasing compliance.

• Game theory: Analysis of Conflict- Roger B. Myerson .
• The Abuse of Probability In Political Analysis: The Robinson Crusoe Fallacy Author(s): George Tsebelis Source: The American Political Science Association .
• Can road traffic law enforcement permanently reduce the number of accidents? – ScienceDirect .
• Are sanctions Effective? A Game-Theoretic Analysis .