Thursday, August 22, 2019

Game Theory - Military, Economics

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24-2-26 PLARF Corruption Scandal: X-T? (Robinson Crusoe Fallacy) - Spaniel > .
23-8-13 Anders & Perun - Theories of Victory & Ruscian Political [In] Stability > .

Wargaming & Battle of the Atlantic ..

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=sun+tzu ?
Mistaking the actions of a rational opponent as a given fact or as “nature” is termed as a Robinson Crusoe Fallacy by George Tsebelis. ... Using simple decision theory to understand the outcomes of a given situation, therefore, amounts to a fallacy. Rational actors don’t operate on absolute probabilities but rather form responses based on the actions of other players. The Robinson Crusoe fallacy provides an important frame of analysis of decisions and helps us understand the outcomes arising from the interaction of two rational players. It goes against our intuitive understanding of incentives and presents a new understanding of the role of policy in increasing compliance.

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sī vīs pācem, parā bellum

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