23-12-22 P00ti's War: Killer Instinct - NBC > .
23-11-4 Ruscia's Combat Compliance Problem - Icarus > .
23-9-15 Ordered Mobilized | P00ti's Ruscian Subclasses (subs) - Katz > .
23-9-2 When the Elites Will Topple P00ti (subs) - Katz > .
23-8-30 Fear is the new normal in Russian politics - Anders > .
23-8-29 Dictatorships: From Spin to Fear | Ruscist Regression (subs) - Katz > .
23-7-13 What's Next For Ruscia After Wagner's Mercenary Revolt - CNBC > .
23-7-2 Is Vladimir P00tin’s power coming to an end? | 60 Min Aus > .
23-5-13 [Ztupidity: P00, Babitchkas, Prickozhin, Fodder, nukes, Xi] - CBC > .
23-4-9 Galeotti: Ultra-nationalism versus P00ti - Times > .
23-3-15 Timothy Snyder on reasons for ICC "WAR CRIMES" decision > .
23-3-17 What makes the Wagner PMC effective - Def & Geo > .
23-3-5 Wagner Group, Russian PMCs & Ukraine - Hx, R-U - Perun > .
23-3-1 [Seven Losses of P00tin: How to Fail Ztupidly as Dicktator - Matters > .
22-12-16 3 reasons why Pootin started the ztupid war (subs) - Katz > .
1: Battlefield
2: Political
3: Social Contract
6: Gangsterism
7: Systemic
There's v little scope for Putin to win back momentum, even with the mobilised reservists. The missiles strikes on cities may assuage the hawks but has no strategic value. Indeed, burns through dwindling stocks that will be needed later.
2: Political
Putin used to be able to play hawks and technocrats against each other. Now, he is having to swing between them, pleasing neither.
23-9-12 P00’s threats to Britain = ‘political manoeuvring’ | Galeotti - Times > .23-4-25 Mark Galeotti - P00 has Defied Predictions of Analysts and Media - SC > .3: Social Contract
Putin established implicit social contracts over war with both masses ('we'll be at war but it won't really affect most of you') and elites. Now he's having to break both
4: Disengagement
Elites increasingly regard centre as a threat/problem and focus on own interests. Striking parallels to what happened in USSR with Afghan War. SledKom reporting increased embezzlement
5: Leverage
5: Leverage
Centre needs regions, to keep masses in line, raise volunteer bns, rebuild conquered cities. Gives some leverage for own ends - tragedy is those out for own interests get more hearing from Kremlin than those trying to defend those of their regions
6: Gangsterism
Increased signs of lateral competition, including these mysterious deaths, which are more likely business rivalries than anything to do with Kremlin. People hunkering down or getting aggressive, further degrading system effectiveness.
7: Systemic
Hard to tackle any of the above, especially as they connect and reinforce each other. Together, making system harder to manage but above all less effective.
Polit system deliberately unstable, gave Putin scope to retain control through divide and rule. Doesn't work well when boss distracted or weakened. And he is, both.
Polit system deliberately unstable, gave Putin scope to retain control through divide and rule. Doesn't work well when boss distracted or weakened. And he is, both.
[I'd add 8. Misunderstanding and Underestimating the West.]
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