Thursday, January 14, 2021

Ostpolitik

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25-2-27 Polish Realism vs Ostpolitik 1 | The Origins of Ostpolitik - Kraut > .
19-3-25 [Ostpolitik within Cold War 1] - GCSE > .


Neue Ostpolitik (German for "new eastern policy"), or Ostpolitik (German: [ˈɔstpoliˌtiːk] 🔉) for short, was the normalization of relations between the Federal Republic of Germany (FRG, or West Germany) and Eastern Europe, particularly the German Democratic Republic (GDR, or East Germany) beginning in 1969. Influenced by Egon Bahr, who proposed "change through rapprochement" in a 1963 speech at the Evangelische Akademie Tutzing, the policies were implemented beginning with Willy Brandt, fourth Chancellor of the FRG from 1969 to 1974, and winner of the 1971 Nobel Peace Prize for his efforts to place this policy at the acme of the FRG.

Ostpolitik was an effort to break with the policies of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which was the elected government of West Germany from 1949 until 1969. The Christian Democrats under Konrad Adenauer and his successors tried to combat the Communist government of East Germany, while Brandt's Social Democrats tried to achieve a certain degree of cooperation with East Germany.

The term Ostpolitik has since been applied to Pope Paul VI's efforts to engage Eastern European countries during the same period. The term Nordpolitik was also coined to describe similar rapprochement policies between North and South Korea beginning in the 1980s.

Wandel durch Handel (WdH, German for "Change through trade"), also known as Wandel durch Annäherung ("Change through Rapprochement"), is a political and economic notion, mostly associated with German foreign policy, of increasing trade with authoritarian regimes in an effort to induce political change. Although most strongly associated with Germany, similar policies have been pursued by several Western countries.

After being a central tenet in German, and European Union, politics since the 1970s, the policy came under intense scrutiny following the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. In April 2022, European Commissioner for Economy Paolo Gentiloni stated that "[t]he notion of 'Wandel durch Handel', of bringing about change through trade, has shown its limitations", saying that "[w]e need to rethink our relations with autocratic regimes and strengthen our ties with like-minded partners". Similarly, European Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis stated four days into the Russian invasion that "[t]he weaponization of trade shows no signs of abating. We have no choice but to face up to this reality, and adapt".

Comment 1: "Ostpolitik" vol. 2 didn't go as planned due to a fundamental misunderstanding of the Merkel government about that policy. Ostpolitik was not just "soft" trade policy and "Handel durch Wandel". It required a massive military deterrence that at the time of Willy Brandt was backed up by substantial (international) troop numbers standing on German soil. It was an offer to the GDR and SU in kindness, not weakness. It very well might have prevented the cold war from turning hot in central Europe. Brandt did not expect the SU to change just by trading with them, and for his government the influence he could have on GDR (let alone SU) policies was limited. The highly ideological approach by the Merkel government expected some kind of free market magic to happen in Russia which they still confused with the SU. They (to be frank: we all) did not listen to the complaints and fears of Eastern European countries. The most important blunder was the incompentence of the European governments to show their willingness to go all the way to fuck-you-town over the sovereignty of Ukraine. Putin thought the West was too weak for a monolithic response - of course, that's also one of the many mistakes on his side. But our determination was way too subtle for the Russian system to be heard.

Comment 2: I think the idea of “trade dependency = peace” works fairly well for democracies, but not dictatorships. Dictatorships have little to no checks and balances, and the people in dictatorships aren’t “citizens to be served,” but pawns to be used by the dictator, with the countries main goal being to serve the dictator’s ego. A dictator won’t care that their decisions will cause hardships for their own citizens or others, and they are used to silencing and repressing any overt complaints by threat, censorship and propaganda.

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sī vīs pācem, parā bellum

igitur quī dēsīderat pācem praeparet bellum    therefore, he who desires peace, let him prepare for war sī vīs pācem, parā bellum if you wan...