Tuesday, September 9, 2014

Turkey versus Greece

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Middle East, North Africa - AuDu >> .

Sunday, September 7, 2014

Visegrád Group

2021 Poland and Hungary at Odds Over the Visegrad 4 > .
23-10-8 Could Poland Become Next Germany? | EcEx > .
23-10-6 Poland orders US HIMARS & SK Chunmoo systems - Binkov > .
23-8-31 Poland: powerhouse in the making - Caspian > .
23-8-29 Demographics of The Visegrád Countries - KaiserBauch > .
22-12-28 Too many people? Challenges of demographic change | DW > .
22-11-27 Polish military modernisation & buying Korean kit - Perun > .
22-10-14 HUNGARY | The West's Enemy Within? - J K-L > .
22-9-7 Intermarium - Poland Ukraine Baltics | George Friedman > .
22-7-22 Poland could become strongest land force in the EU - Binkov > .
22-7-21 Why Every NATO Member Joined (Why Others Haven't) - Spaniel > .
22-7-4 Intermarium: Is Strongest Union In Europe About To Appear? - Complete > .
22-5-6 Could Ukraine cause fall of Belarusian Dictator? - VisPol > . skip ad > .
22-3-23 Polish citizens join army b/o Russian invasion of Ukraine - BBC > .
21-9-4 How Viktor Orbán rigged Hungary's Democracy - Into > . skip > .

Geostrategic Projection
European Geostrategic Projection ..

The Visegrád Group recently (Feb 15, 2021) celebrated its 30th birthday. The last 3 decades have been a time of great development for all V4 countries. However, does the format still have any value today?

00:00 Intro
00:45 The Path to Prosperity
03:44 Different Optics
12:30 Troublesome
16:30 Outro

The Visegrád Group, Visegrád Four, V4, or European Quartet, is a cultural and political alliance of four countries of Central Europe (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia), all of which are members of the EU and of NATO, to advance co-operation in military, cultural, economic and energy matters with one another and to further their integration to the EU.

The Group traces its origins to the summit meetings of leaders from Czechoslovakia, Hungary and Poland held in the Hungarian castle town of Visegrád on 15 February 1991. Visegrád was chosen as the location for the 1991 meeting as an intentional allusion to the medieval Congress of Visegrád in 1335 between John I of Bohemia, Charles I of Hungary and Casimir III of Poland.

After the dissolution of Czechoslovakia in 1993, the Czech Republic and Slovakia became independent members of the group, thus increasing the number of members from three to four. All four members of the Visegrád Group joined the European Union on 1 May 2004.

All four nations in the Visegrád Group are high-income countries with a very high Human Development Index. V4 countries have enjoyed more or less steady economic growth for over a century. In 2009, Slovakia adopted the euro as its official currency and is the only member in the Group to do so.

If counted as a single nation state, the Visegrád Group's GDP would be the 4th in the EU and 5th in Europe and 15th in the world. Both in terms of exports and imports, the V4 is also at the forefront not only in Europe, but also in the world (4th in the EU, 5th in Europe and 8th in the world).

Based on gross domestic product per capita (PPP) estimated figures for the year 2020, the most developed country in the grouping is the Czech Republic (US$40,858 per capita), followed by Slovakia (US$38,321 per capita), Hungary (US$35,941 per capita) and Poland (US$35,651 per capita). The average GDP (PPP) in 2019 for the entire group is estimated at around US$34,865.

Within the EU, the V4 countries are pro-nuclear-power, and are seeking to expand or found (in the case of Poland) a nuclear-power industry. They have sought to counter what they see as an anti-nuclear-power bias within the EU, believing their countries would benefit from nuclear power.

Saturday, September 6, 2014

Western Balkan Accession to EU?


Wrongers - France

Centrist incumbent president Emmanuel Macron has been re-elected French president with an estimated 58.2% of the vote, while his far-right challenger Marine Le Pen, took 41.8%. After a fractious campaign that has seen the far right come its closest yet to winning power.

21-6-27 France elections: Far-right-wrong National Rally loses key battleground states - poll: France's far-right-wrong National Rally (RN) look to have failed in their bid to win their first ever region. Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur was a target for Marine Le Pen's party. But exit polls suggest their hotly-tipped candidate, Thierry Mariani, took only 43% of the vote and lost to the centre-right Republicans. 

The election - which saw a potentially record low turnout of less than 30% - also brought disappointment for President Emmanuel Macron. His centrist party, La République En Marche (LREM), also failed to win control of any region. It also performed badly in the first round, which was held last week. It was the first time President Macron's party has taken part in regional elections, as it did not exist the last time they were held in 2015.

Other early results from the second round suggest wins for traditional centre-right parties, and for the left.

Comment: "French citizen here,

Le Pen currently seems to be ahead in the polls by around 2%, as much as many people outside the country may think, it is very unlikely that Le Pen will win. In order to win the election without a second round happening, you need more than 50% of the votes, which is extremely unlikely nowadays.

That means that the second round will happen between Macron (or another candidate) and Le Pen. It always happened this way: if the National Rally is in the second round of any election, the rest of the entire French political spectrum will vote against Le Pen. This is why Macron and Le Pen as a duel seemed pretty tight during the first round of 2017, but Macron ended up winning with 60% of the votes during the second round.

Contrary to the US, being the incumbent candidate in France usually isn't an advantage, it's hard to be popular as a President in France, your average President in France doesn't have a very high popularity. In the case of Macron however.. as much as he is unpopular among many, if he ends in the second round against Le Pen, he will be the first President to pull off a second term since 2002.

As for Les Républicains, they are indeed on the Center-Right, however their most Right-wing side is usually very Conservative and tends to try to "steal" electors from the National Rally by talking against the migration crisis and about security. The Socialist Party is pretty much done and the major force in the Left-Wing is now "La France Insoumise", though it's very unlikely they will pass the first round.

Could Le Pen Win? I don't think she will, but feel free to return to this comment if I do end up being wrong. It's possible she will gain more votes than last time however, one can be impressed by how she managed to recover from her 2017 disastrous debate. See you next year!"

Thursday, September 4, 2014

Yugoslavia - Collapse

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Tito vs Stalin - Cold War Doc > .
Josip Broz ‘Tito’: Too Tough for Stalin - Biog > .
Third Balkan War - Explained in 20 minutes | Balkans during WW1 - Knowledgia > .Animated History of Croatia - Suibhne > .
How did Kosovo become a country? | Economist > .
23-1-23 Could Serbia Invade NATO-Defended Republic of Kosovo? - VP > .21-12-24 Albania and Kosovo move towards a backdoor union - Caspian > .
Yugoslavia. For many, a long-forgotten failed nation. For others, an all-too painful, and recent, memory. A once-united federation made up of six neighboring republics, Yugoslavia’s existence was never a simple one. With constant ethnic and religious division, it seems that it was only a matter of time before a breakup would be imminent. 

Yugoslavia (lit. 'South Slavic Land') was a country in Southeast Europe and Central Europe for most of the 20th century. It came into existence after WW1 in 1918 under the name of the Kingdom of Serbs, Croats and Slovenes by the merger of the provisional State of Slovenes, Croats and Serbs (which was formed from territories of the former Austro-Hungarian Empire) with the Kingdom of Serbia, and constituted the first union of the South Slavic people as a sovereign state, following centuries in which the region had been part of the Ottoman Empire and Austria-Hungary. Peter I of Serbia was its first sovereign. The kingdom gained international recognition on 13 July 1922 at the Conference of Ambassadors in Paris. The official name of the state was changed to Kingdom of Yugoslavia on 3 October 1929.

Yugoslavia was invaded by the Axis powers on 6 April 1941. In 1943, a Democratic Federal Yugoslavia was proclaimed by the Partisan resistance. In 1944 King Peter II, then living in exile, recognised it as the legitimate government. The monarchy was subsequently abolished in November 1945. Yugoslavia was renamed the Federal People's Republic of Yugoslavia in 1946, when a communist government was established. It acquired the territories of Istria, Rijeka, and Zadar from Italy. In 1963, the country was renamed again, as the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (SFRY). Serbian communist leader Slobodan Milošević sought to restore pre-1974 Serbian sovereignty. Partisan leader Josip Broz Tito ruled the country as president until his death in 1980. After Tito's death, Milošević made his way to becoming the next superior figure and political official for Serbia.

The six constituent republics that made up the SFRY were the SR Bosnia and Herzegovina, SR Croatia, SR Macedonia, SR Montenegro, SR Serbia, and SR Slovenia. Serbia contained two Socialist Autonomous Provinces, Vojvodina and Kosovo, which after 1974 were largely equal to the other members of the federation. After an economic and political crisis in the 1980s and the rise of nationalism, Yugoslavia broke up along its republics' borders, at first into five countries, leading to the Yugoslav Wars. From 1993 to 2017, the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia tried political and military leaders from the former Yugoslavia for war crimes, genocide, and other crimes committed during those wars.

After the breakup, the republics of Montenegro and Serbia formed a reduced federative state, the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY), known from 2003 to 2006 as Serbia and Montenegro. This state aspired to the status of sole legal successor to the SFRY, but those claims were opposed by the other former republics. Eventually, it accepted the opinion of the Badinter Arbitration Committee about shared succession and in 2003 its official name was changed to Serbia and Montenegro. This state dissolved when Montenegro and Serbia each became independent states in 2006, while Kosovo proclaimed its independence from Serbia in 2008.

A seemingly localized Kosovar dispute covers the conflicting interests of the EU, the US, and Serbia, while setting a dangerous practice for the wider periphery.

Balkans - Kosovo ..
Bosnia - Unrest ..

sī vīs pācem, parā bellum

igitur quī dēsīderat pācem praeparet bellum    therefore, he who desires peace, let him prepare for war sī vīs pācem, parā bellum if you wan...