Thursday, October 20, 2022

22-10-20 Truss Resigns □

22-11-11 Great Britain: Descent Into Chaos | Truss to Sunak | My Take > .
22-12-30 Most disappointing politicians - VisPol > .
22-12-13 Rishi Sunak's first 50 days as PM - comparison to Truss - Times > .

Rishi Sunak (born 12 May 1980) is a British politician who has served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom since 25 October 2022 and Leader of the Conservative Party since 24 October 2022. Sunak served as Chancellor of the Exchequer from 2020 to 2022 and Chief Secretary to the Treasury from 2019 to 2020, and he has been Member of Parliament (MP) for Richmond (Yorks) since 2015.

Sunak was born in Southampton to parents of Indian descent who migrated to Britain from East Africa in the 1960s. He was educated at Winchester College, studied philosophy, politics and economics (PPE) at Lincoln College, Oxford, and earned an MBA from Stanford University as a Fulbright Scholar. While at Stanford, he met his future wife Akshata Murty, the daughter of Indian billionaire N. R. Narayana Murthy of Infosys. After graduating, Sunak worked for Goldman Sachs and later as a partner at the hedge fund firms The Children's Investment Fund Management and Theleme Partners.

Sunak was elected to the House of Commons for Richmond in North Yorkshire at the 2015 general election, succeeding William Hague. Sunak supported Brexit in the 2016 referendum on EU membership. He was appointed to Theresa May's second government as Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Local Government in the 2018 reshuffle. He voted three times in favour of May's Brexit withdrawal agreement. After May resigned, Sunak supported Boris Johnson's campaign to become Conservative leader. After Johnson became Prime Minister, Sunak was appointed Chief Secretary to the Treasury. Sunak replaced Sajid Javid as Chancellor of the Exchequer after Javid's resignation in the February 2020 cabinet reshuffle. As Chancellor, Sunak was prominent in the government's financial response to the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic impact, including the Coronavirus Job Retention and Eat Out to Help Out schemes. He resigned as chancellor in July 2022, followed by Johnson's resignation amid a government crisis.

Sunak stood in the Conservative party leadership election to replace Johnson, and lost the members' vote to Liz Truss. After Truss's resignation amid a government crisis, Sunak was elected unopposed as Leader of the Conservative Party on 24 October 2022. He was appointed Prime Minister by King Charles III, the first to be appointed during his reign, a day later, becoming the first British Asian and Hindu to hold that position.

Sunday, October 16, 2022

Bear Traps

22-10-17 Traps for Putin | Galeotti's Times article (subs) - Katz > .
23-12-22 P00ti's War: Killer Instinct - NBC > .
23-11-4 Ruscia's Combat Compliance Problem - Icarus > .
23-9-15 Ordered Mobilized | P00ti's Ruscian Subclasses (subs) - Katz > .
23-9-2 When the Elites Will Topple P00ti (subs) - Katz > .
23-8-30 Fear is the new normal in Russian politics - Anders > .
23-8-29 Dictatorships: From Spin to Fear | Ruscist Regression (subs) - Katz > .
23-7-13 What's Next For Ruscia After Wagner's Mercenary Revolt - CNBC > .
23-7-2 Is Vladimir P00tin’s power coming to an end? | 60 Min Aus > .
23-5-13 [Ztupidity: P00, Babitchkas, Prickozhin, Fodder, nukes, Xi] - CBC > .
23-4-9 Galeotti: Ultra-nationalism versus P00ti - Times > .
23-3-15 Timothy Snyder on reasons for ICC "WAR CRIMES" decision > .
23-3-17 What makes the Wagner PMC effective - Def & Geo > .
23-3-5 Wagner Group, Russian PMCs & Ukraine - Hx, R-U - Perun > .
23-3-1 [Seven Losses of P00tin: How to Fail Ztupidly as Dicktator - Matters > .
22-12-16 3 reasons why Pootin started the ztupid war (subs) - Katz > .

1: Battlefield 
There's v little scope for Putin to win back momentum, even with the mobilised reservists. The missiles strikes on cities may assuage the hawks but has no strategic value. Indeed, burns through dwindling stocks that will be needed later.
 
2: Political 
Putin used to be able to play hawks and technocrats against each other. Now, he is having to swing between them, pleasing neither.
23-9-12 P00’s threats to Britain = ‘political manoeuvring’ | Galeotti - Times > .23-4-25 Mark Galeotti - P00 has Defied Predictions of Analysts and Media - SC > .
 
3: Social Contract 
Putin established implicit social contracts over war with both masses ('we'll be at war but it won't really affect most of you') and elites. Now he's having to break both 

4: Disengagement
Elites increasingly regard centre as a threat/problem and focus on own interests. Striking parallels to what happened in USSR with Afghan War. SledKom reporting increased embezzlement

5: Leverage 
Centre needs regions, to keep masses in line, raise volunteer bns, rebuild conquered cities. Gives some leverage for own ends - tragedy is those out for own interests get more hearing from Kremlin than those trying to defend those of their regions 

6: Gangsterism 
Increased signs of lateral competition, including these mysterious deaths, which are more likely business rivalries than anything to do with Kremlin. People hunkering down or getting aggressive, further degrading system effectiveness. 

7: Systemic 
Hard to tackle any of the above, especially as they connect and reinforce each other. Together, making system harder to manage but above all less effective. 
Polit system deliberately unstable, gave Putin scope to retain control through divide and rule. Doesn't work well when boss distracted or weakened. And he is, both. 


[I'd add 8. Misunderstanding and Underestimating the West.]

Saturday, October 15, 2022

Zaporozhye Counteroffensive

22-10-15 Zaporozhye Counteroffensive? The Belarus Threat [Mapped] - gtbt > .
23-5-7 Russia and Nuclear Weapons. Russian Crimes - Anna > .
23-1-21 Orcine "Grand Offensive Goes Terribly Wrong" | Reporting > .
22-11-23 Kherson Retreat & Winter Prospects [War Mapped] - gtbt > .
22-11-22 Where Will Ukraine Strike Next? 3 Main Options for Kyiv - Spaniel > .
22-10-21 Response if Russia uses a nuclear weapon in Ukraine? - J K-L > .
22-10-20 Ukraine Continues Attacking - Russian Invasion DOC - K&G > .
22-10-18 Flight | Demoralization | Historic Defeats vs. Pooti (subs) - Katz > .

Monday, October 10, 2022

Escalating Loser

22-10-10 Ruscian Nuclear Attack. How Would the West Respond? - gtbt > .
23-10-25 Understanding NoXious World (Dis)Order - Kotkin | Hoover > .
23-10-19 [R-U & NoXious XIR Axis behind Hamas atrocities] - DiD > .
23-9-15 Ordered Mobilized | P00ti's Ruscian Subclasses (subs) - Katz > .
23-8-30 Fear is the new normal in Russian politics - Anders > .
23-8-29 Dictatorships: From Spin to Fear | Ruscist Regression (subs) - Katz > .
23-8-15 Oppenheimer's nuclear warnings more relevant than ever - Caspian > .
23-8-2 Single-Industry Towns' Armies | [Factory to Fodder] (subs) - Katz > .
23-7-2 Is Vladimir P00tin’s power coming to an end? | 60 Min Aus > .
23-5-13 [Ztupidity: P00, Babitchkas, Prickozhin, Fodder, nukes, Xi] - CBC > .
23-5-8 P00ti Fragmented Military: Internal Rivalries, Mismanagement - Spaniel > .
23-3-5 Wagner Group, Russian PMCs & Ukraine - Hx, R-U - Perun > .
23-3-1 [Seven Losses of P00tin: How to Fail Ztupidly as Dicktator - Matters > .
23-2-22 How Ukraine Saved Kyiv: Ruscian Missteps, Ukrainian Ingenuity - Spaniel > .
23-2-5 Scary Stalinism vs Pathetic Pootinism [electioneering] (subs) - Katz > .
23-1-30 Offensive Pooti's Doomed Orcine Escalation (subs) - Katz > . 
23-1-22 Politics Can Destroy Armies: Factionalism & R-U War - Perun > .
23-1-19 Kremlin's Bizarre Ideological Mission for 2023 - Vlad > .
22-12-16 3 reasons why Pootin started the ztupid war (subs) - Katz > .
22-12-10 2nd wave of mobilization | cannon meat for 2023 (subs) - Katz > .
22-11-23 Kherson Retreat & Winter Prospects [War Mapped] - gtbt > .
22-11-22 Can Ruscia's [Press Gang] Mobilization Make a Difference? - T&P > .
22-11-11 Economics of Kamikaze Drones - nwyt > . skip > .
22-10-31 The KGB is not dead, it simply has a new name...(FSB) - Enforcer Matt > .
22-10-27 Pooti's [Desperate] Iranian Drones | Peter Zeihan, Ben Hodges > .
22-10-24 How a Russian Nuclear Strike Could Play Out | WSJ > .
22-10-23 Krumblin Ravings About Total War - Vlad > .
22-10-22 War With Ukraine is Coming Home to Ruscian Mobiki - VICE > .
22-10-21 Response if Russia uses a nuclear weapon in Ukraine? - J K-L > .
22-10-20 The Russian war narrative after mobilization - Anders > .
22-10-20 Iranian Drones and Ruscian Desperation - Zeihan > .
22-10-16 The most pointless war of the century (subs) - Katz > .
22-10-15 Zaporozhye Counteroffensive? The Belarus Threat [Mapped] - gtbt > .
22-10-14 Will We Know if Ruscia is About to Use Nuclear Weapons? - CoCa > .
22-10-13 UKRAINE is winning the WAR - VisPol > .
22-10-10 Krumblin Dynamics Behind Barbaric Bombings - Vlad Vexler > .

Mobik” [мобик] is a Ukrainian portmanteaux term for a Ruscian conscript invader. It combines “mobilized” + “vatnik”. A vatnik [ватник] is a poor, uneducated person who has been zombified by stupefying Ruscist propaganda.

Saturday, October 8, 2022

Kerch Bridge Joins Moskva

22-10-8 Crimean bridge is blown | Pootin is humiliated once again (subs) - Katz > .
24-1-26 Battle for Crimea: RuM Bases on Fire, Planes Crashing, Ships Sinking - U24 > .
23-9-10 Battle for Black Sea. R-U: Geopolitics, Grain, Naval Drones > .
23-8-16 Ukr releases video of 23-7-17 Sea Baby attack on Crimean bridge > .
23-7-12 Logistics. Ruscia's Fragility in Zaporizhia [Mapped] - gtbt > .
23-1-6 New SatIm - Crimean Bridge Repairs – Ongoing,  Almost Complete - S > .
23-1-6 Russia [pointlessly] Attacks Karantynny Ostrov Bridge (nr Kherson) - S > .
22-11-22 Where Will Ukraine Strike Next? 3 Main Options for Kyiv - Spaniel > .
22-11-3 Attack on the Kerch Bridge - Kharkiv Front - Ruscian Invasion - K&A > .
22-10-12 How is the war going? — Mid-October 2022 - Anders > .
22-10-10 Crimea Bridge Explosion Analyzed | WSJ > .
22-10-9 Long road of defeats | Crimea Bridge — yet another failure (subs) - Katz > .

23-7-16 At approximately 20:24 EST, reports began to emerge of at least two explosions in the sky over Kerch, Crimea. At 21:04 EST, locals began to report on social media that a general alarm had sounded for all civilians to clear the bridge and evacuate the area. At 21:25 EST, Republic of Crimea Head Aksyonov confirmed the bridge had been shut down and law enforcement agencies were on scene. Although no fire was reported, he did announce that a partial bridge collapse had occurred around the 145th support beam. By 2140 EST, local media reported that at least two had been killed in the collapse
multi-kilometer traffic jam 

other bridges 
23-4-19 Huge Blast as a Bridge in Marinka is Remote Detonated - Such > .


Comment: Doubts have been cast on the truck bomb scenario by some structural engineers. They point out that a bomb that explodes on the road bed shouldn't drop the span in two separate places. Another issue is that the asphalt and painted lines are not bubbled or scorched as one might expect from a surface blast. They feel that explosives placed beneath the bridge is much more likely.

sī vīs pācem, parā bellum

igitur quī dēsīderat pācem praeparet bellum    therefore, he who desires peace, let him prepare for war sī vīs pācem, parā bellum if you wan...