Friday, June 26, 2020

China versus Taiwan

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23-12-11 Taiwan, Kinmen (Quemoy), XiXiP Geopolitical Dance | NYT > .
23-2-28 Xina & ROC war prep: martial law, nuclear emergency, wartime controls > .
23-1-20 Taiwan - Democracy and the digital world | DW Doc > .
22-12-20 US military in Pacific to prevent Xinese invasion of Taiwan - PBS > .22-11-6 Defending Taiwan vs Xina's looming war threat | 60 Min Aus > .
22-10-31 How could war between Xina & Taiwan play out? | Four Corners > .
22-10-27 Taiwan: Soldiers’ salaries x2; expanding military bases - Revealed > .22-9-21 How China’s Military Drills Could Choke Off Taiwan’s Internet | WSJ > .
21-12-28 Why China Wants to Annex Taiwan | What Could Go Wrong - gtbt > .
21-12-16 Taiwan: a full Chinese invasion would be difficult for PLA - Focus > .
Weapon Specs - CoCa >> .



The defence ministry said the aircraft, including nuclear-capable bombers, entered its air defence identification zone (ADIZ) in two waves. Taiwan responded by scrambling its jets and deploying missile systems. China sees democratic Taiwan as a breakaway province, but Taiwan sees itself as a sovereign state. Taiwan has been complaining for more than a year about repeated missions by China's air force near the island.

Taiwan
Asia coverage: https://econ.st/2QDDDEJ .​ 
“Scared strait: Taiwan”: https://econ.st/3aormei .​ 
Why are China and Taiwan divided? https://econ.st/2QA3Bce .​ 
Why Taiwan is not internationally recognised? https://econ.st/32t3Vw7 .​ 
Which is The Economist country of the year? https://econ.st/3nevi6J .​ 
How Taiwan is affecting China’s political decisions: https://econ.st/3ann6vC .​ 
Why is America’s relationship to Taiwan important? https://econ.st/3dy3UNL .​ 
Why Taiwan is not recognised by WHO? https://econ.st/32w9r0U .​ 
COVID-19 has not ravaged Taiwan's economy. How so? https://econ.st/3dAlHDG .​ 
How China’s security laws are changing Hong Kong: https://econ.st/3sw65W9 .​ 
China’s contradicting pitch to Taiwan: https://econ.st/2RKK60Z .​ 
Is war between China and Taiwan possible? https://econ.st/3n3MAmO .​ 
Can Taiwanese businesses survive in China? https://econ.st/3na7tN9 .

ROC military: As of March 2022, Taiwanese men are conscripted for four months of service. Taiwan's military has just doubled the length of call-back training, but some critics say the country is still sorely underprepared for battle.

The Republic of China Armed Forces (ROCAF; pinyin: Zhōnghuá Mínguó Guójūn) are the armed forces of the Republic of China (ROC), formerly based in mainland China and currently in its remaining jurisdictions which includes the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, Matsu, and other smaller ROC islands such as Taiping Island in the South China Sea.

It encompasses the Army, Navy (including the Marine Corps), Air Force and Military Police Force. The military is under the civilian control of the Ministry of National Defense, a cabinet-level agency overseen by the Legislative Yuan. It was previously named the National Revolutionary Army (NRA) before being renamed as the Republic of China Armed Forces in 1947 due to the implementation of the newly promulgated Constitution of the Republic of China. It was also historically referred as the Chinese National Armed Forces from 1912 to 1949 prior to the establishment of the People's Republic of China on the Chinese mainland.

Until the 1970s and towards the end of martial law, the military's primary mission was for the ROC to eventually retake mainland China from the communist-controlled People's Republic of China (PRC) through campaigns such as Project National Glory. The military's current foremost mission is the defense of the islands remaining under the control of the ROC, against a possible military invasion by the People's Liberation Army of the PRC, which is seen as the predominant threat to the ROC in the ongoing dispute over the ambiguous political status of Taiwan dating back to the Chinese Civil War.

Comment:
"Many people speak against Taiwan for the reason that Taiwan still upholding the clauses in her own Constitution, which clearly state the ultimate goal of reunification and Taiwan as a part of China. As a law student in Taiwan, I must admit that this is a true and powerful counter-argument of every effort we have done so far to escape our dictatorial past and potential dictatorial future. However, it is misleading and unfair to people who live in Taiwan. Since the Constitution was either passed before we have democracy, or in the transition phrase. And most importantly, at this moment, we continually to be threatened by the use of force from China if we ever dare to amend the Constitution! The truth is that China knows this fact as well, that's why China is doing everything to stop Taiwan from cutting this final legal tie from China. In this sense, I would say the removal of China's coercion should be a consensus of all arguments. Then we can see if Taiwan wish to uphold those clauses, or they regard it as nonsense."
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China - Overleveraged

22-10-15 Xina's Economy is in Bad Shape - ColdFusion > .
23-10-13 Michael Pettis: Xina’s Changing Economy Will Impact World - CGSP > .
23-9-29 Decoding P00ti-PooXi blueprint for NoXious World Order | DW > .
23-9-25 Xi's Transforming Xina [for the worse] - Xina's Changing Trajectory - Dig > .
23-9-24 $6.5T Problem: BRI, Unproductive, Decaying Infrastructure | EcEx > .
23-9-7 Xi's Mess: Wartime Economy Rising, Imminent Societal Collapse > .
23-4-16 Logan Wright Grasping Shadows X-Ec 1 - Update > . 2 > .
23-1-20 Xi's Biggest Errors - Kevin Rudd | Update > .
22-11-27 Dragon's Claw: Xina's Next 10 Years - Kamome > . skip > .
22-11-1 "Overreach" | Susan Shirk, Kevin Rudd | Asia Society > .
22-10-27 Xina is "Pretty Much Screwed" - laowhy86 > .
22-10-25 Xina's Q3 details - Update > .
2021 Why You Should Be Worried About China's Debt Crisis - EcEx > .
22-8-18 Xina's Economic Crisis Worsening (Housing Collapse Explained) - New > .
22-8-3 We need to pay close attention to XiXiP activities - CR > .
22-7-28 Have Mao and Deng predicted XXP's downfall? Untold history of China - Lei > .
22-4-26 Political struggle of central vs local governments & debts - Lei > .
22-4-21 Fake data re Chinese economy: GDP, import-export, unemployment - Lei > .
22-3-28 China's Economic Rise—End of the Road - cfr > .


An economy or business is said to be overleveraged when it is carrying too much debt when compared to its operating cash flows and equity. An overleveraged nation/company has difficulty in paying its interest and principal payments and is often unable to pay its operating expenses because of excessive costs due to its debt burden, which often leads to a downward financial spiral. This results in the company having to borrow more to stay in operation, and the problem gets worse. This spiral usually ends when a company restructures its debt or files for bankruptcy protection.
  • A company/economy is said to be overleveraged when it has too much debt, impeding its ability to make principal and interest payments and to cover operating expenses.
  • Being overleveraged typically leads to a downward financial spiral resulting in the need to borrow more.
  • Companies/economies typically restructure their debt or file for bankruptcy to resolve their overleveraged situation.
  • Leverage can be measured using the debt-to-equity ratio or the debt-to-total assets ratio.
  • Disadvantages of being overleveraged include constrained growth, loss of assets, limitations on further borrowing, and the inability to attract new investors.
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China's Cracks

22-3-31 Breaking - Mass Uprisings Erupt in China - laowhy86 > .

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China's Impact

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Chokepoints - South China Sea

2019 China's Attempted Hegemony - Geopolitics of the South China Sea > .
24-2-2 Why America Would Defend The Philippines - Ec Talk > .
24-2-17 Taiwan Question & World Order | X Economy - Update > .
24-2-16 USN vs PLAN - T&P > .
24-2-10 KOREA | A Final Separation? - Prof J K-L > .
24-1-9 Ċold Ŵar 2: NATO-like alliance vs Xina in the Indo-Pacific? | DW > .
23-12-21 Xina’s 3 goals in creating South Xina Sea tensions - Lei > .
23-12-18 Xinese Agression in the South China Sea (SXS) - Warographics > . 
23-10-25 US & [I-P-CW] vs Xina: Preparations to Fight War - Real > .
23-10-23 Xina's Threats Pushing Philippines Closer to US - WSJ > .
23-8-2 Xi's Anti-Corruption Purge of PLA Rocket Force | PLA structure - Digging > .
23-7-29 Ream, Hambantota, Tonga Naval Bases; Australia - Focus > .
23-7-28 PLAN's Indo-Pacific Bases - Ream, Djibouti, Hambantota, Tonga - Focus > .
23-7-27 Unbelievable Growth of Indonesia - EcEx > .
23-7-24 Xina's Nine-Dash Line: [Illegal Claims in South China Sea] - Geoff > .
23-7-12 Xina prepares for war - Hudson > .
23-6-11 [Mil-Civ Crosr] X's RoFo [Amphibious Assault] Ferries - K > . skip > .
23-6-11 US expanding presence in the Philippines = 9 bases - Binkov > .
23-6-1 PLAN 2/2 - Sex Scandals - Untold stories of Corruption - Lei > .
23-5-25 PLAN 1/2 - Untold stories and scandals - Lei > .
23-5-12 PLAN posturing: weakness vs Taiwan, USA, SK, Philippines - Insights > .
23-5-10 US Military - New Bases to Counter China in Pacific | WSJ > .
23-2-28 Xina & ROC war prep: martial law, nuclear emergency, wartime controls > .
23-2-22 US Bases & Philippine Fight Against Xina - T&P > .
23-1-13 US & Japan boost cooperation; Marines ready to counter Xina > .
22-12-20 US military in Pacific to prevent Xinese invasion of Taiwan - PBS > .
22-11-27 Dragon's Claw: Xina's Next 10 Years - Kamome > . skip > .
22-11-11 Fortress Xina - Xi's Plans for World Domination - laowhy86 > .
22-11-2 Photo evidence - Xina has militarized South China Sea islands - Rev > .
22-10-11 Condeleeza Rice - Xina and Taiwan - Hoover > .
22-8-4 Situation Zoom: Pelosi Visits Taiwan | Goodfellows - Hoover > .
22-8-4 Nancy Peolosi’s trip ⇝ XXP and Xina-Taiwan relations - Lei > .
22-7-10 Singapore: Hx: Richest, Most Militarized Country in Asia - Explore > .
Risks of Amphibious Invasions - Hypothetical modern D-Day invasion - Binkov > .
22-5-12 The Philippines - China's New Province - laowhy86 > .
22-3-26 China has “Fully Militarized” the South China Sea - Uncensored > .
22-2-25 South China Sea dispute explained - Paint > .
22-1-31 Will Taiwan Spark a US-China Conflict? - Whatifalthist > .
2021 How China is Secretly Illegally Expanding its Territory > .
2021 Economic & Military Implications of China's BRI (Kevin Rudd) - Asia Society > .
Taiwan Strait Crisis 1954-1958 - Cold War > .
What is the RCEP? | CNBC > .
> Malaysia >>    



Taiwan ..

The South China Sea is a marginal sea of the Western Pacific Ocean. It is bounded in the north by the shores of South China (hence the name), in the west by the Indochinese Peninsula, in the east by the islands of Taiwan and northwestern Philippines (mainly Luzon, Mindoro and Palawan), and in the south by Borneo, eastern Sumatra and the Bangka Belitung Islands, encompassing an area of around 3,500,000 km2 (1,400,000 sq mi). It communicates with the East China Sea via the Taiwan Strait, the Philippine Sea via the Luzon Strait, the Sulu Sea via the straits around Palawan (e.g. the Mindoro and Balabac Strait), the Strait of Malacca via the Strait of Singapore, and the Java Sea via the Karimata and Bangka Strait. The Gulf of Tonkin is also part of the South China Sea, and the shallow waters south of the Riau Islands are also known as the Natuna Sea.

The South China Sea is a region of tremendous economic and geostrategic importance. One-third of the world's maritime shipping passes through it, carrying over US$3 trillion in trade each year. Huge oil and natural gas reserves are believed to lie beneath its seabed. It also contain lucrative fisheries, which are crucial for the food security of millions in Southeast Asia.

The South China Sea Islands, collectively comprising several archipelago clusters of mostly small uninhabited islands, islets (cays and shoals), reefs/atolls and seamounts numbering in the hundreds, are subject to competing claims of sovereignty by several countries. These claims are also reflected in the variety of names used for the islands and the sea.
The Strait of Malacca (Malay: Selat Melaka, Indonesian: Selat Malaka, Thai: ช่องแคบมะละกา, Tamil: மலாக்கா நீரிணை, Malākkā nīriṇai, Chinese: 馬六甲海峽/马六甲海峡) or Straits of Malacca is a narrow stretch of water, 580 mi (930 km) in length, between the Malay Peninsula (Peninsular Malaysia) and the Indonesian island of Sumatra. As the main shipping channel between the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean, it is one of the most important shipping lanes in the world. It is named after the Malacca Sultanate that ruled over the archipelago between 1400 and 1511, the center of administration of which was located in the modern-day state of Malacca, Malaysia.

From an economic and strategic perspective, the Strait of Malacca is one of the most important shipping lanes in the world.

The strait is the main shipping channel between the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean, linking major Asian economies such as India, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, China, Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea. The Strait of Malacca is part of the Maritime Silk Road that runs from the Chinese coast towards the southern tip of India to Mombasa, from there through the Red Sea via the Suez Canal to the Mediterranean, there to the Upper Adriatic region to the northern Italian hub of Trieste with its rail connections to Central Europe and the North Sea. Over 94,000 vessels pass through the strait each year (2008) making it the busiest strait in the world, carrying about 25% of the world's traded goods, including oil, Chinese manufactured products, coal, palm oil and Indonesian coffee. About a quarter of all oil carried by sea passes through the Strait, mainly from Persian Gulf suppliers to Asian markets. In 2007, an estimated 13.7 million barrels per day were transported through the strait, increasing to an estimated 15.2 million barrels per day in 2011. In addition, it is also one of the world's most congested shipping choke points because it narrows to only 2.8 km (1.5 nautical miles) wide at the Phillip Channel (close to the south of Singapore).

The maximum size (specifically draught) of a vessel that can pass through the Strait is referred to as Malaccamax, that is, for some of the world's largest ships (mostly oil tankers), the Strait's minimum depth (25 metres or 82 feet) is not deep enough. This is determined by the relatively shallow Singapore Strait, which provides passage to the Karimata Strait in the east. The next closest passageway (the Sunda Strait between Sumatra and Java) is even more shallow and narrow. Therefore, ships exceeding the Malaccamax must detour a few thousand nautical miles and use the Lombok Strait, Makassar Strait, Sibutu Passage, and Mindoro Strait instead.

Piracy has been a problem in the strait. Piracy had been high in the 2000s, with additional increase after the events of September 11, 2001. After attacks rose again in the first half of 2004, regional navies stepped up their patrols of the area in July 2004. Subsequently, attacks on ships in the Strait of Malacca dropped, to 79 in 2005 and 50 in 2006. Reports indicate that attacks have dropped to near-zero levels in recent years.

There are 34 shipwrecks, some dating to the 1880s, in the local TSS channel (the channel for commercial ships under the global Traffic Separation Scheme). These pose a collision hazard in the narrow and shallow strait.

On 20 August 2017, the United States Navy destroyer USS John S. McCain lost ten of its crew's lives in a collision with the merchant ship Alnic MC a short distance east of the strait whilst full steering capabilities had been lost and making a series of errors in attempted mitigation, its external lights being changed to "red over red" ("vessel not under command").

Another risk is the annual haze due to bush fires in Sumatra, Indonesia. It may reduce visibility to 200 metres (660 ft), forcing ships to slow down in the busy strait. The strait is frequently used by ships longer than 350 metres (1,150 ft).

Thai Canal: Thailand has developed plans to divert much of the strait's traffic and hence some of its economic significance to a shorter route: the Thai government has several times proposed cutting a canal through the Isthmus of Kra, saving around 960 kilometres (600 mi) from the journey between the two oceans. China has offered to cover the costs, according to a report leaked to The Washington Times in 2004. Nevertheless, and despite the support of several Thai politicians, the prohibitive financial and ecological costs suggest that such a canal will not be built.

An alternative is to install a pipeline across the Isthmus of Kra to carry oil to ships waiting on the other side. Proponents calculate it would cut the cost of oil delivery to Asia by about $0.50/barrel ($3/m3). Myanmar has also made a similar pipeline proposal.

The South China Sea disputes involve both island and maritime claims by several sovereign states within the region, namely Brunei, the People's Republic of China (PRC), Taiwan (Republic of China/ROC), Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam. An estimated US$3.37 trillion worth of global trade passes through the South China Sea annually, which accounts for a third of the global maritime trade. 80 percent of China's energy imports and 39.5 percent of China's total trade passes through the South China Sea.

The disputes involve the islands, reefs, banks, and other features of the South China Sea, including the Spratly Islands, Paracel Islands, Scarborough Shoal, and various boundaries in the Gulf of Tonkin. There are further disputes, such as the waters near the Indonesian Natuna Islands, which many do not regard as part of the South China Sea. Claimant states are interested in retaining or acquiring the rights to fishing stocks, the exploration and potential exploitation of crude oil and natural gas in the seabed of various parts of the South China Sea, and the strategic control of important shipping lanes.

Since 2013, the PRC has resorted to island building in the Spratly Islands and the Paracel Islands region. According to Reuters, island building in the South China Sea primarily by Vietnam and the Philippines has been going on for decades; while China has come late to the island building game, its efforts have been on an unprecedented scale as it had from 2014 to 2016 constructed more new island surface than all other nations have constructed throughout history and as of 2016 placed military equipment on one of its artificial islands unlike the other claimants. A 2019 article in Voice of America that compared China and Vietnam's island building campaign in the South China Sea similarly noted that the reason why Vietnam in contradistinction to China has been subject to little international criticism and even support was because of the slower speed and widely perceived defensive nature of its island-building project.

China's actions in the South China Sea have been described as part of its "salami slicing" strategy, and since 2015 the United States and other states such as France and the United Kingdom have conducted freedom of navigation operations (FONOP) in the region. In July 2016, an arbitration tribunal constituted under Annex VII of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) ruled against the PRC's maritime claims in Philippines v. China. The tribunal did not rule on the ownership of the islands or delimit maritime boundaries. Both the People's Republic of China and the Republic of China (Taiwan) stated that they did not recognize the tribunal and insisted that the matter should be resolved through bilateral negotiations with other claimants. On September 17, 2020, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom issued a joint note verbale recognizing the PCA ruling and challenging China's claims.


China's quest to catch up with the West > .
China economy: Why it matters > .
Beware Dragons - atl >> .


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sī vīs pācem, parā bellum

igitur quī dēsīderat pācem praeparet bellum    therefore, he who desires peace, let him prepare for war sī vīs pācem, parā bellum if you wan...

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