Thursday, April 12, 2012

QE - Quantitative Easing

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Quantitative easing (QE) is a monetary policy whereby a central bank purchases at scale government bonds or other financial assets in order to inject money into the economy to expand economic activity. Quantitative easing is considered to be an "unconventional" form of monetary policy, which is usually used when inflation is very low or negative, and when standard monetary policy instruments have become ineffective. The term "quantitative easing" was coined by German economist Richard Werner in 1995 in the context of the Japanese crisis.

A central bank implements quantitative easing by buying financial assets from commercial banks and other financial institutions, thus raising the prices of those financial assets and lowering their yield, while simultaneously increasing the money supply. In contrast to conventional open-market operations, quantitative easing involves the purchase of more risky assets (than short-term government bonds) and at a large scale, over a pre-committed period of time.

Central banks usually resort to quantitative easing policies when their key interest rates approach or reach zero (a situation described as the "zero lower bound") which induces a "liquidity trap" where people prefer to hold cash or very liquid assets, given the perceived low profitability on other assets. In such circumstances, monetary authorities may then use quantitative easing to further stimulate the economy.

Quantitative easing has been largely undertaken by all major central banks worldwide following the global financial crisis of 2007–08 and in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Quantitative easing can help bring the economy out of recession and help ensure that inflation does not fall below the central bank's inflation target. However QE programmes are also criticized for their side-effects and risks, which include the policy being more effective than intended in acting against deflation (leading to higher inflation in the longer term), or not being effective enough if banks remain reluctant to lend and potential borrowers are unwilling to borrow.

Quantitative easing affects the economy through several channels:
  • Credit channel: By providing liquidity in the banking sector, QE makes it easier and cheaper for banks to extend loans to companies and households, thus stimulating credit growth. Additionally, if the central bank also purchases financial instruments that are riskier than government bonds (such as corporate bonds), it can also increase the price and lower the interest yield of these riskier assets.
  • Portfolio rebalancing: By enacting QE, the central bank withdraws an important part of the safe assets from the market onto its own balance sheet, which may result in private investors turning to other financial securities. Because of the relative lack of government bonds, investors are forced to "rebalance their portfolios" into other assets. Additionally, if the central bank also purchases financial instruments that are riskier than government bonds, it can also lower the interest yield of those assets (as those assets are more scarce in the market, and thus their prices go up correspondingly).
  • Exchange rate: Because it increases the money supply and lowers the yield of financial assets, QE tends to depreciate a country's exchange rates relative to other currencies, through the interest rate mechanism. Lower interest rates lead to a capital outflow from a country, thereby reducing foreign demand for a country's money, leading to a weaker currency. This increases demand for exports, and directly benefits exporters and export industries in the country.
  • Fiscal effect: By lowering yields on sovereign bonds, QE makes it cheaper for governments to borrow on financial markets, which may empower the government to provide fiscal stimulus to the economy. Quantitative easing can be viewed as a debt refinancing operation of the "consolidated government" (the government including the central bank), whereby the consolidated government, via the central bank, retires government debt securities and refinances them into central bank reserves.
  • Boosting asset prices: When a central bank buys government bonds from a pension fund, the pension fund, rather than hold on to this money, it might invest it in financial assets, such as shares, that gives it a higher return. And when demand for financial assets is high, the value of these assets increases. This makes businesses and households holding shares wealthier – making them more likely to spend more, boosting economic activity.
  • Signalling effect: Some economists argue that QE's main impact is due to its effect on the psychology of the markets, by signalling that the central bank will take extraordinary steps to facilitate economic recovery. For instance, it has been observed that most of the effect of QE in the Eurozone on bond yields happened between the date of the announcement of QE and the actual start of the purchases by the ECB.

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