Monday, June 28, 2021

Anglosphere - CANZUK

22-2-14 Australia's Liberal Party = appeasers of CCP - Kevin Rudd > .
22-2-14 The real (Australian) Liberal record on China - Kevin Rudd > .

AUKUS - 2023-3-13

23-3-13 AUKUS: Albanese, Sunak, Biden - defence against Xina threat - 4 > .
24-5-19 Detection Advances vs Future of Ballistic, Attack Submarines - Perun > .
24-4-17 [XiP00gandistic Hypocrisy & Strategic Dicklomatic Stumbles] - Digging > .
24-2-20 Expanding RAN’s warship fleet; multi-billion-dollar overhaul | ABC Aus > .
23-12-2 RNDF 2023: Deepening Defense Cooperation through AUKUS > .
23-10-25 US & [I-P-CW] vs Xina: Preparations to Fight War - Real > .
23-7-29 Ream, Hambantota, Tonga Naval Bases; Australia - Focus > .
23-7-28 PLAN's Indo-Pacific Bases - Ream, Djibouti, Hambantota, Tonga - Focus > .
23-7-2 Ruscia and Xina seek Eurasian dominance - CaspianReport > .
23-5-31 Partnership of Freedom: AUKUS & Its Architects - Hudson > .
23-5-16 Australia’s New Submarines Fuse Western Military Tech | WSJ > .
23-5-1 Australia’s nuclear submarines enough to deter Xina? | ABC > .
23-4-29 [Macron's AUKUS Sulk => Lu Shaye] - Baltic World > .
23-4-6 AUKUS submarine deal: UK's role against Xina's imperialism - Times > .
23-3-18 Australian AUKUS Submarines Won't Protect Taiwan - Eurasia > .
23-3-15 Submarine pact: Xina whines & threatens | DW > .
23-3-14 Xina whining - Focus > .
Mare Pācificā - pro libertate >> .
submarīnī - pro libertate >> .

Leaders of Australia, UK, and US have unveiled new details of their plan to create a fleet of next generation nuclear-powered submarines. The pact is aimed at countering Xina's influence [militaristic ambitions] in the Indo-Pacific region.

Under the AUKUS agreement, Australia will first receive at least three nuclear-powered submarines from the US. The allies will also work together to create a new fleet using cutting-edge technology, including reactors made by Rolls-Royce in the UK.

Under the deal outlined on 2023-3-13, members of the Royal Australian Navy (RAN) will be embedded at US and UK submarine bases from this year to gain the necessary skills to use the submarines. From 2027, the US and UK will base a small number of nuclear subs at a RAN base in Perth, Western Australia, before Australia buys three American Virginia-class submarines in the early 2030s - with options to purchase two more.

After that, the plan is to design and build an entirely new nuclear-powered submarine for the UK and Australian navies, called SSN-AUKUS. This attack craft will be built in Britain and Australia to a British design, but use technology from all three countries. 

The interim and future boats will give Australia submarines which can travel farther and faster than its existing fleet, with [conventional] cruise missiles that could strike targets on land and at sea.

[Xina's predictably hypocritical whining is not worth recording.]

Anglosphere - CANZUK ..
AUKUS - 2023-3-13 ..
AUKUS - 2021-9-15 ..
AUKUS, China - War ..
21st C - Australian Defence ..
Australia - Military Threat from China ..
Australian Foreign Policy ..
Maritime Strategy - Australia ..
NZ, Aus, USA vs China in Pacific ..

AUKUS, China - War

21-9-20 War with China: Are we closer than we think? | 60-Min Aus > .
24-5-19 Detection Advances vs Future of Ballistic, Attack Submarines - Perun > .
24-4-17 [XiP00gandistic Hypocrisy & Strategic Dicklomatic Stumbles] - Digging > .
24-2-20 Expanding RAN’s warship fleet; multi-billion-dollar overhaul | ABC Aus > .
23-12-2 RNDF 2023: Deepening Defense Cooperation through AUKUS > .
23-10-20 Xina's PLAN Expansion vs USN's Hegemony - gtbt > . skip > .
23-8-1 Australian Security: X-T conflict could erupt ‘on accident’ | Treverton > .
23-7-29 Ream, Hambantota, Tonga Naval Bases; Australia - Focus > .
23-7-28 PLAN's Indo-Pacific Bases - Ream, Djibouti, Hambantota, Tonga - Focus > .
23-7-12 Indo-Pacific Threats - NATO Summit Au, J, NZ, SK - NATO > .
23-7-12 Xina prepares for war - Hudson > .
23-5-31 Partnership of Freedom: AUKUS & Its Architects - Hudson > .
23-5-16 Australia’s New Submarines Fuse Western Military Tech | WSJ > .
23-5-1 Australia’s nuclear submarines enough to deter Xina? | ABC > .
23-4-29 [Macron's AUKUS Sulk => Lu Shaye] - Baltic World > .
22-11-11 Fortress Xina - Xi's Plans for World Domination - laowhy86 > .
22-10-20 U.S. vs. China: Djibouti, Military Bases, Ports, Global Reach | WSJ > .
22-10-1 Xina Battles US [Aus] for Control of Pacific Islands - Uncensored > .
22-9-24 Xina's and Australia’s power plays in the Pacific - Caspian > .
22-7-6 How China plans for naval dominance - Caspian > .
22-7-6 IISS Special Lecture: Australia, ASEAN and Southeast Asia > . 
22-7-4 QUAD going beyond military exercises — Xina watching > .
22-3-30 China’s Secret Plan for a Pacific Military Base - Uncensored > .
22-3-16 China: "No. 1 Threat" to the West | Heinrichs - JoAnd > . full > .
22-3-1 Tim Harcourt | Russia's Commodity-Heavy Sanctions & Australia - rh > .

AUKUS - 2021-9-15

23-5-1 Australia’s nuclear submarines enough to deter Xina? | ABC > .
> PLA > 
ASEAN, AUKUS, CPTPP, QUAD - Compass >> .Australia's CCP Problem - Rap >> .



Planned RAN acquisitions over coming decades:
The AUKUS alliance shows a pivot by the United Kingdom and United States towards the Indo-Pacific area and is sending a message to China with the trilateral partnership, according to ASPI Executive Director Peter Jennings. “The key message is everything Beijing has done in the last half decade has been counterproductive to its longer-term interests,” he told Sky News Australia. Jennings said the “only reason” the AUKUS alliance existed was because of the needs to “push back” against China. “The China which militarized the South China Sea, the China which took over Hong Kong when it didn’t need to – breaking a treaty with the UK, the China which is daily threatening Taiwan and Japan,” he said. “China has forced the consequential democracies of the world to push back against this type of authoritarian behaviour.”

UK, US and Australia launch pact to counter China: 

The UK, US and Australia have announced a special security pact to share advanced defence technologies, in an effort to counter China. The partnership will enable Australia to build nuclear-powered submarines for the first time. The pact, to be known as AUKUS, will also cover artificial intelligence, quantum technologies and cyber.

The three countries are worried about China's growing power and military presence in the Indo-Pacific. The UK Government says this is a very significant defence agreement - a point reinforced by the fact that the leaders of Britain, the United States and Australia have appeared together by video conference to announce this partnership. It also underlines the growing importance of the Indo-Pacific region to both the US and the UK.

It will have ramifications for two other countries. First, France, a NATO ally, which had signed a deal to build a fleet of diesel electric submarines for the Australian Navy. As a result of the pact, Australia has scrapped a deal to build French-designed submarines. France won a A$50bn (€31bn; £27bn) contract to build 12 submarines for the Australian Navy in 2016. The deal was Australia's largest-ever defence contract. However, the project was hit with delays largely because of Canberra's requirement that many components be sourced locally.

The second is China. Though British officials insist the new defence agreement is not a response to any one country, the UK Government does say it is about ensuring prosperity, security and stability in the [Indo-Pacific] region and supporting a peaceful "rules-based order". And it is no secret that Britain, the US and Australia share concerns about China's [aggressive] military build up in the Indo-Pacific.

21-9-17 China applies to join key Asia-Pacific trade pact: 

China has applied to join a key Asia-Pacific trade pact as it attempts to strengthen its position in the region. The move comes the day after a historic [AUKUS] security deal between the US, UK and Australia was unveiled. China's announcement that it has officially applied to join the CPTPP comes the day after the historic AUKUS security pact, in what has been seen as an effort to counter Beijing's influence in the Asia-Pacific region. The AUKUS pact will allow Australia to build nuclear-powered submarines for the first time, using technology provided by the US and the UK. The deal, which will also cover Artificial Intelligence and other technologies, is Australia's biggest defence partnership in decades, analysts said.

The pact that eventually became the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), was created by the US to counter China's influence. However, former UNpresident DJT pulled the US out of it in 2017.

The original Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) was promoted by then-President Barack Obama as an economic bloc to challenge China's increasingly powerful position in the Asia Pacific. After DJT pulled the US out of the deal, Japan led negotiations to create what became the CPTPP. The CPTPP was signed in 2018 by 11 countries, including Australia, Canada, Chile, Japan and New Zealand.

In June 2021, the UK formally launched negotiations to join the CPTPP, while Thailand has also signalled interest in joining the agreement.

Joining the CPTPP would be a significant boost for China, especially after it signed up to a different free trade agreement with 14 countries - called the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) - in November 2020. RCEP is the world's largest trading bloc, with South Korea, China, Japan, Australia and New Zealand among its members.

Chinese commerce minister Wang Wentao said the world's second largest economy had submitted its application to join the free trade agreement in a letter to New Zealand's trade minister, Damien O'Connor. New Zealand acts as the administrative centre for the pact.

21-9-18 AUKUS: France recalls envoys amid security pact row: [to quote "Junior": "Childish!"

France has said it is recalling its ambassadors in the US and Australia for consultations, in protest at a security deal which also includes the UK. The French foreign minister said the "exceptional decision" was justified by the situation's "exceptional gravity".

The AUKUS alliance angered France as it scuppered a [delay-plagued] multibillion-dollar deal it had signed with Australia. France was informed of the alliance only hours before the public announcement was made.

21-9-19 AUKUS pact delivers France some hard truths: 

When they have picked themselves up from their humiliation, the French will need to gather their sangfroid and confront some cruel verities. 

Number one: there is no sentiment in geostrategy. The French must see there is no point in wailing about having been shoddily treated. Who ever heard of a nation short-changing its defence priorities out of not wanting to give offence? The fact is that the Australians calculated they had underestimated the Chinese threat and so needed to boost their level of deterrence. They acted with steely disregard for French concerns but, when it comes to the crunch, that is what nations do. ............. The third harsh truth is that there is no obvious other way for France to fulfil its global ambitions. The lesson of the last week is that France by itself is too small to make much of a dent in strategic affairs. Every four years the Chinese build as many ships as there are in the entire French fleet. When it came to the crunch, the Australians preferred to be close to a superpower, not a minipower.


Australia - Military Threat from China

22-4-28 Almost 60% of Australians want Australia to be tougher on China > .
22-4-4 Peter Jennings | China & National Security - John Anderson > .
22-3-30 China’s Secret Plan for a Pacific Military Base - Uncensored > .
22-3-28 Conversation with Senator the Hon Penny Wong - CSIS > .
22-3-27 Avoidable War - Kevin Rudd: US future conflict with China | 9 Aus > .
22-3-16 China: "No. 1 Threat" to the West | Heinrichs - JoAnd > . full > .
22-3-1 Tim Harcourt | Russia's Commodity-Heavy Sanctions & Australia - rh > .
2021 Economic & Military Implications of China's BRI (Kevin Rudd) - Asia Society > .
2021 Australia has rebelled against China (South Korea not followed) - VisPol > .Australia's CCP Problem - Rap >> .
ASEAN, AUKUS, CPTPP, QUAD - Compass Rose >> .
Indo-Pacific Security & Threats - Γαῖα >> .


Resources
Coming Resource Conflicts ..

Just when we thought Australia's relationship with China couldn’t get any worse, Beijing has delivered Australia another punch. It’s in the form of a list of 14 grievances it has with us and is polished off with an almighty threat: if you make an enemy of China, China will be the enemy! [More like: China will drop the smiley mask.] When that belligerence is combined with the upheaval of a new administration in Washington, it’s clear we are facing a dangerous new world order, and the Pacific is likely to be an especially vulnerable region. For the best analysis of what the immediate future might hold, 60 Minutes Australia speaks with H. R. McMaster, a highly respected military man and former U.S. national security adviser. But his expert assessment includes a grim warning. Australia, he reckons, has a battle on its hands.

Paul Dibb AM (born 3 October 1939) is an English-born Australian strategist, academic and former defence intelligence official. He is currently emeritus professor of strategic studies at the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre which is part of the Australian National University.

He was the head of the National Assessments Staff (the predecessor to the Office of National Assessments) from 1974 to 1978, the director of the Joint Intelligence Organisation (the predecessor to the Defence Intelligence Organisation) from 1986 to 1988, and the head of the Defence Strategy and Intelligence Group with the rank of Deputy Secretary in the Department of Defence from 1988 to 1991. Dibb is also known for his contribution to Australian defence strategy through writing the 1986 Review of Australia’s defence capabilities, known as the Dibb Report, and being the primary author of the 1987 Defence White Paper. From 1965 to 1984, Dibb worked for the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation, tasked with gaining intelligence and recruiting KGB and GRU agents in Canberra. In 1991, Dibb retired from the Australian Public Service and became the director of the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, part of the Australian National University until 2003–where he is currently the emeritus professor. During the Government of Prime Minister John Howard, Dibb was a member of the Foreign Minister's Foreign Policy Advisory Council.

Dibb's report was published in March 1986 and recommended for Australia to abandon the remaining elements of the forward defence policy but concentrate its military resources on the geographic areas relevant to defending the country and its economic interests from direct attack.

Dibb's recommendations were based around an assessment that "Australia is one of the most secure countries on earth" and that while there was the potential for regional conflict, the longer-term intentions and capabilities of countries in Australia's region could not be predicted and so did not form a suitable basis for planning.

Dibb recommended for Australia's military posture to be based on a strategy of denying aggressors the ability to attack the country. That was to be achieved through using a layered defence of Jindalee Operational Radar Network (over-the-horizon radar), patrol aircraft and maritime strike aircraft to protect Australia's approaches with the Army's Operational Deployment Force being responsible for defeating any landings on the Australian mainland. That would require changes to the Australian Defence Force's structure and equipment acquisition programs. The policy of self-reliance proposed by Dibb also placed less emphasis on ANZUS, its alliance with the United States, than previous policies.

The Dibb Report received a mixed response. Some experts regarded it as being an important contribution to developing an independent Australian defence posture. Other experts criticised the report for calling for an essentially defensive military strategy, implying that existing Australian military capabilities be abandoned and making optimistic assumptions about the period of time available to detect and respond to new threats to Australia. Many of the Dibb Report's assumptions were used in developing the 1987 Defence White Paper, but the Government did not adopt some of Dibb's key recommendations, such as those concerning Australia's relationship with the United States and the Australian military's role in the Pacific.

2019: China has released a new white paper on national defense, laying out the country's military preparedness and security strategy. It singled out the United States, Japan and Australia as actors allegedly causing security uncertainties in the Pacific region. The paper discusses those nations' moves to beef up their military presence and alliances. China claimed its own military does not pose a threat. Chinese officials say one of their top concerns remains independence movements in Tibet and in the northwestern Chinese province of Xinjiang. The paper also goes on to warn against independence for Taiwan, a self-governed island that China claims as part of its territory.


21st C - Australian Defence

21-8-30 Australia's Defence Complacency | Senator Jim Molan - John Anderson > .
24-2-27 Australia: a middle-power between West and East - STG > .
23-12-2 RNDF 2023: Deepening Defense Cooperation through AUKUS > .
23-10-25 Understanding NoXious World (Dis)Order - Kotkin | Hoover > .
23-10-20 Xina's PLAN Expansion vs USN's Hegemony - gtbt > . skip > .
23-9-10 Industrial Competition & Consolidation, Military Procurement - Perun > .
23-9-9 Xina Preparing For War With USA? | BRI | US-X Relations - Update > .
23-8-1 Australian Security: X-T conflict could erupt ‘on accident’ | Treverton > .
23-7-29 Ream, Hambantota, Tonga Naval Bases; Australia - Focus > .
23-7-28 PLAN's Indo-Pacific Bases - Ream, Djibouti, Hambantota, Tonga - Focus > .
23-7-12 China Prepares (economics, resources) for War: A Timeline - Hudson > .
23-6-18 Procurement vs Efficacy - Requirements, R&D pitfalls - Perun > .
23-6-13 NATO IAMD | NATO Integrated Air and Missile Defence > .
23-5-31 Partnership of Freedom: AUKUS & Its Architects - Hudson > .
23-5-16 Australia’s New Submarines Fuse Western Military Tech | WSJ > .
23-5-1 Australia’s nuclear submarines enough to deter Xina? | ABC > .
23-4-29 [Macron's AUKUS Sulk => Lu Shaye] - Baltic World > .
22-12-20 US military in Pacific to prevent Xinese invasion of Taiwan - PBS > .
22-11-11 Fortress Xina - Xi's Plans for World Domination - laowhy86 > .
22-11-6 Defending Taiwan vs Xina's looming war threat | 60 Min Aus > .
22-10-1 Xina Battles US [Aus] for Control of Pacific Islands - Uncensored > .
22-9-24 Xina's and Australia’s power plays in the Pacific - Caspian > .
22-8-26 How Xina wages an unseen war for strategic influence | FT > .
22-8-4 Situation Zoom: Pelosi Visits Taiwan | Goodfellows - Hoover > .
22-7-21 Xina losing international trust, 10 Pacific nations rebuff joint agreement - CR > .
22-7-6 IISS Special Lecture: Australia, ASEAN and Southeast Asia > . 
22-4-28 Almost 60% of Australians want Australia to be tougher on China > .
22-4-4 Peter Jennings | China & National Security - John Anderson > .
22-4-2 Survey Reveals US-China-Taiwan-Japan Dynamics Post Ukraine War - Lei > .
22-3-30 China’s Secret Plan for a Pacific Military Base - Uncensored > .
22-3-25 A2/AD: A Strategy for Defence of Australia in 21st Century - hypo > .
22-1-6 Australia & Japan sign security cooperation treaty - Focus > .
22-3-1 Tim Harcourt | Russia's Commodity-Heavy Sanctions & Australia - rh > .
Australia's CCP Problem - Rap >> .

Senator Jim Molan, AO, DSC, a former Major-General in the Australian Army is currently Senator for New South Wales in the Australian Senate. The conversation re-examines Australia's defence and national security threats in the wake of the United States' disastrous exit from Afghanistan, and consider the potential for war with China in the coming years; how it could come about, how it might be waged, Australia's defence preparedness and the readiness with which we can rely on the United States for support. 

Jim Molan's military service included a broad range of command and staff appointments in operations, training, staff, and military diplomacy. His career saw him deployed to Papua New Guinea, Indonesia, East Timor, Malaysia, Germany, the US, and Iraq, where he served as Chief of Operations for Coalition forces in 2004. He is an accomplished infantryman, Indonesian speaker, and helicopter pilot. 

00:00 Intro
00:12 Introducing Jim Molan
02:00 Afghanistan - a giant wake-up call
06:23 America's military capacity
13:37 Australia's dangerous complacency
20:51 Cultural self-sabotage
28:54 What are China's objectives in the region?
32:15 'Grey-zone conflict'
33:39 The threat of cyber warfare
34:58 How would a war with China play out?
38:35 Australia's military - can it meet future challenges?
49:50 The key to meeting future threats
52:26 Concluding comments


Costs


Resources

sī vīs pācem, parā bellum

igitur quī dēsīderat pācem praeparet bellum    therefore, he who desires peace, let him prepare for war sī vīs pācem, parā bellum if you wan...