Sunday, October 30, 2022

European Geostrategic Projection

22-10-30 European Defence, Russian Challenge - 3rd power, paper tiger? - Perun > .
24-4-25 [Innacurate Depictions of] "Eastern Europe" - Kraut > .
24-1-22 How [Viktator] Orbán Took Over Hungary - Context Matters > .
24-1-9 Volga River - History, Importance; Volga-Don Canal - Animation > .
23-9-23 Erdoğan's Turkey is NATO's Biggest Internal Problem - Real > .
23-9-20 UK ‘could join’ a two-tiered EU, even after Brexit | Olivier Costa > .
23-9-5 Strategic Autonomy: Will Europe Ever Be Able to Defend Itself? | Waro > .
23-8-20 NATO's Rearmament & Spending - NATO's R-U Response - Perun > .
23-7-28 Rebuilding Ukraine - Into > .
23-7-25 Can Germany Really Become Europe's Great Military Power? - Waro > .
23-6-17 Procurement vs Efficacy - Requirements, R&D pitfalls - Perun > .
23-6-13 NATO IAMD | NATO Integrated Air and Missile Defence > .
23-2-20 Record Deficit Heralds the Collapse of the Russian Economy - gtbt > .
22-12-16 3 reasons why Pootin started the ztupid war (subs) - Katz > .
22-12-5 German Development Model: Rise, Merkel, Ru, Crisis, Scholz, Xina - gtbt > .
22-12-2 Austria, Hungary, Serbia, Croatia - Danube & Europe's Future - Kraut > .
22-11-23 Kherson Retreat & Winter Prospects [War Mapped] - gtbt > .
22-11-16 G20 '22 - Xina distancing itself from Ruscist fallout - Update > .


The Danube is a river that was once a long-standing frontier of the Roman Empire and today connects 10 European countries, running through their territories or being a border. Originating in Germany, the Danube flows southeast for 2,850 km (1,770 mi), passing through or bordering Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, Croatia, Serbia, Romania, Bulgaria, Moldova, and Ukraine before draining into the Black Sea. Its drainage basin extends into nine more countries. The largest cities on the river are Vienna, Budapest, Belgrade and Bratislava, all of which are the capitals of their respective countries. The Danube passes through four capital cities, more than any other river in the world.[8] Five more capital cities lie in the Danube's basin: Bucharest, Sofia, Zagreb, Ljubljana and Sarajevo. The fourth-largest city in its basin is Munich, the capital of Bavaria, standing on the Isar River.

The Danube is the second-longest river in Europe, after the Volga in Russia. It flows through much of Central and Southeastern Europe, from the Black Forest into the Black Sea. Its longest headstream Breg rises in Furtwangen im Schwarzwald, while the river carries its name from its source confluence in Donaueschingen onwards.

Since ancient times, the Danube has been a traditional trade route in Europe. Today, 2,415 km (1,501 mi) of its total length are navigable. The Danube is linked to the North Sea via the Rhine–Main–Danube Canal, connecting the Danube at Kelheim with the Main at Bamberg. The river is also an important source of hydropower and drinking water. Many European borders, especially in the Balkans, are also drawn by the Danube's stream. There are more countries along its flow than on any other river (10; the Nile is second with 9).

Saturday, October 29, 2022

22-10-29 Naval Drones □

23-9-27 Marichka: Ukrainian engineers test underwater kamikaze drone - Forces > .23-8-4 Marine Drone Strike, Novorossiysk: Olenegorski Gornjak Listing - Such > .23-7-30 Ukraine's Maritime Drones Are Influencing Warfare - HIS > .
23-2-13 Ukraine's Snake Island heroes | Richard Spencer - Times > .
22-11-3 Satellite Images of Admiral Makarov - damage neither +/- | Sucho > .
22-10-30 Satellite Photos - Sevastopol -/+ USV Drone Attack - Sucho > .
22-10-29 'Massive' drone attack on Black Sea Fleet, [LYING] Ruscia says – BBC > .
Baltic, Nordic 
Black Sea Fleet 
22-11-11 Ukraine's Maritime Drones (USV) ⍈HIS 

"The Russian Navy has a new problem in the Black Sea. Ukrainian group Brave-1 have shown their Toloka weaponized UUV (uncrewed underwater vehicle). The design is evidently intended to operate as a form of loitering torpedo.

The design consists of a typical tubular body, but with a large keel and horizontal stabilizers amidships. Thrusters are mounted on the end of each horizontal stabilizer. Intuitively, these are used for steering as well as propulsion. This should allow significant agility. If the mast is always above water then, technically, you could argue that it’s a semi-submersible. In this case however that distinction may be unhelpful. It’s a weaponized UUV.

This is a natural evolution of Ukraine’s maritime drones which are uncrewed surface vessels (USVs) packed with explosives. Being an underwater vehicle it is less prone to detection and harder to neutralize with gunfire. Its warhead is also impacting below the waterline so may be more likely to sink its target."
---------
A video from the cameras of unmanned surface vehicles featuring an attack on the vessels of the Ruscian Black Sea Fleet has been published for free access. In the footage you can see an attack on the 11356R project Admiral Makarov frigate, which became the actual flagship of the fleet after the sinking of the Moskva missile cruiser.

Ukrainian authorities have not officially confirmed their participation in the organization of the operation. According to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, nine unmanned aerial vehicles and seven unmanned surface vehicles were involved in the attack.

The damage caused to the ships still has to be assessed, since there are no photos of the consequences yet. [The supposed "UK-involved" attacks are yet another example of LYING by Ruscists, who have used this as an excuse to suspend the grain deal, blocking exports from Odesa.]

Ruscia acknowledged the defeat of warships in the harbor of Sevastopol and [ztupidly] blamed Great Britain.

Image: courtesy of HI Sutton: Assumption visualization regarding the arrangement of the USVs, which was found near Sevastopol on September 21, 2022



Russian terror & blackmail must lose. Volodymyr Zelenskyy 29.10.2022 > .

"Today, a rather predictable statement came from Russia – a statement that they are finally canceling the grain export initiative. But in fact, this is not their decision today. Russia began deliberately aggravating the food crisis back in September, when it blocked the movement of ships with our food. From September to today, 176 vessels have already accumulated in the grain corridor, which cannot follow their route. Some grain carriers have been waiting for more than three weeks. Algeria, Egypt, Yemen, Bangladesh, Vietnam, others countries – very different countries, from different parts of the world... But they can all be equally destabilized by this Russian decision to block exports. Why a handful of people somewhere in the Kremlin can decide whether people in Egypt or Bangladesh will have food on their tables? A strong international response is needed now. Both at the UN level and at other levels. In particular, at the level of the G20. Ukraine has been and can continue to be one of the guarantors of global food security. Russian terror and blackmail must lose. Humanity must win. I thank everyone who is fighting with us to restore peace and stability to international relations!"

Ukraine: Maritime Drones (USVs)
USA Bayonet Crawlers, tracked UUVs
USA SwarmDiver micro-USV
Ru Nerpa anti-diver UUV

Wednesday, October 26, 2022

Desperate Threats

22-10-26 Will [Desperate Tsar Runt] start a nuclear war? (subs) - Maxim Katz > .
23-5-13 [Ztupidity: P00, Babitchkas, Prickozhin, Fodder, nukes, Xi] - CBC > .
23-5-7 Russia and Nuclear Weapons. Russian Crimes - Anna > .
23-3-23 5 Takeaways [Xi’s P00petry visit] - Stubb - STG > .
23-2-5 Scary Stalinism vs Pathetic Pootinism [electioneering] (subs) - Katz > .
23-1-22 Politics Can Destroy Armies: Factionalism & R-U War - Perun > .
23-1-19 Kremlin's Bizarre Ideological Mission for 2023 - Vlad > .
22-12-11 Is strategic bombing of infrastructure ever effective - Perun > .
22-11-8 How Would Nuclear EMP Affect Power Grid? - Practical Engineering > .
22-11-2 Inside Russia's "Escalate to Deescalate" Strategy - Spaniel > .
22-10-29 How likely is a Nuclear conflict with Ruscia? | Ben Hodges > .
22-10-27 Russia-Ukraine War: Learning from History | Intelligence^2 > .
22-10-26 Ukraine: What is a 'dirty bomb'? - Forces > .

The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station (Запорізька атомна електростанція: Zaporiz'ka atomna elektrostantsiya) in southeastern Ukraine is the largest nuclear power plant in Europe and among the 10 largest in the world. It was built by the Soviet Union near the city of Enerhodar, on the southern shore of the Kakhovka Reservoir on the Dnieper river. It is operated by Energoatom, who also operate Ukraine's other three nuclear power stations.

The plant has six VVER-1000 pressurized light water nuclear reactors (PWR), each fuelled with 235U (LEU) and generating 950 MWe, for a total power output of 5,700 MWe. The first five were successively brought online between 1985 and 1989, and the sixth was added in 1995. The plant generates nearly half of the country's electricity derived from nuclear power, and more than a fifth of total electricity generated in Ukraine. The Zaporizhzhia thermal power station is nearby.

On 4 March 2022, the nuclear and thermal power stations were both captured by Russian forces during the Battle of Enerhodar of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. As of 12 March 2022 the plant is reportedly controlled by the Russian company Rosatom. The plant continued to be operated by Ukrainian staff, under Russian control, until 11 September 2022, when the sixth reactor was disconnected.

As of November 2022, Ukrainian cities had drawn up plans for evacuation centers, secured supplies of potassium iodide pills and 10% of emergency medicine teams in the Ukraine had been reconfigured to respond to chemical, biological, radiation, and nuclear risks. Assessment > of nuclear risks resulting from worst-case military strike.

Monday, October 24, 2022

Month 9

22-10-25 The Riddle of Why Russians Don't Protest - Vlad > .
22-12-3 How Ukraine Liberated Kherson - Ruscian Invasion - K&G > .
22-11-23 Kherson Retreat & Winter Prospects [War Mapped] - gtbt > .
22-11-22 Where Will Ukraine Strike Next? 3 Main Options for Kyiv - Spaniel > .
22-11-22 Can Ruscia's [Press Gang] Mobilization Make a Difference? - T&P > .
22-11-11 Economics of Kamikaze Drones - nwyt > . skip > .
22-11-3 Kharkiv, Kherson, Kerch Bridge - R-U 8 - K&A > .
22-10-27 Battlegrounds w/ H.R. | Ukraine War & Russian Stability - Hoover > .
22-10-27 Pooti's [Desperate] Iranian Drones | Peter Zeihan, Ben Hodges > .
22-10-26 Inside Ruscia’s Military Collapse | VICE > .
22-10-26 The winter war in Ukraine - Anders Puck Nielsen > .
22-10-21 Three Reasons the Russia-Ukraine War Hasn't Ended - Spaniel > .

22-11-5 Ruscia USES ANTI-RETREAT Forces to [Kill Orc] Soldiers - Dude > .

Mobik” [мобик] is a Ukrainian portmanteaux term for a Ruscian conscript invader. It combines “mobilized” + “vatnik”. A vatnik [ватник] is a poor, uneducated person who has been zombified by stupefying Ruscist propaganda.

Friday, October 21, 2022

XiXiP & 20th Congress

22-10-21 The Congress - How the Xinese Communist Party Works - Poly > .
23-9-25 Xi's Transforming Xina [for the worse] - Xina's Changing Trajectory - Dig > .
23-3-8 US-China: Qin & Conflict Warning - Update > .
23-3-8 "Catastrophic Consequences" - Xina Actually Threatens War with USA - lao > .
22-11-27 Dragon's Claw: Xina's Next 10 Years - Kamome > . skip > .
22-11-19 Xina's Xi Jinping Knows He Screwed [Is Screwing] Up - Uncensored > .
22-11-16 G20 '22 - Xina distancing itself from Ruscist fallout - Update > .
22-11-15 G20 '22 - Biden & Xi Discuss Ukraine, Taiwan & Competition - Update > .
22-11-11 Fortress Xina - Xi's Plans for World Domination - laowhy86 > .
22-10-10 Coming Conflict with China | Michael Beckley > . full > .
22-10-29 Did Xi remove ex-CCP leader Hu to help his successor? - Lei > .
22-10-29 Xina's Imminent Collapse, Manitoba Conference | Peter Zeihan > .
22-10-27 Foreign investors fleeing: Xina's economy bleak/Purge coming > .
22-10-27 Xina is "Pretty Much Screwed" - laowhy86 > .
22-10-25 XXP's worst at top | 20th Congress | reform, opening up end - Insight > .
22-10-25 Xina's Q3 details - Update > .
22-10-24 Situation before Xi ordered Hu's removal at Party Congress - Lei > .
22-10-21 Likelihood of US-China war. Kevin Rudd on Xi Jinping era | DW > .
22-10-20 XiXiPee Congress Final Day - Hu Jintao "Removed" - Update > .
22-10-15 Xina's Economy is in Bad Shape - ColdFusion > .

Fighting On

22-10-21 Three Reasons the Russia-Ukraine War Hasn't Ended - Spaniel > .
23-5-13 [Ztupidity: P00, Babitchkas, Prickozhin, Fodder, nukes, Xi] - CBC > .
23-3-5 Wagner Group, Russian PMCs & Ukraine - Hx, R-U - Perun > .
23-2-22 How Ukraine Saved Kyiv: Ruscian Missteps, Ukrainian Ingenuity - Spaniel > .
23-2-5 Scary Stalinism vs Pathetic Pootinism [electioneering] (subs) - Katz > .
23-1-22 Politics Can Destroy Armies: Factionalism & R-U War - Perun > .
23-1-19 Kremlin's Bizarre Ideological Mission for 2023 - Vlad > .
23-1-18 What will end the war in Ukraine? - Binkov > .
22-11-23 Kherson Retreat & Winter Prospects [War Mapped] - gtbt > .
22-11-22 Where Will Ukraine Strike Next? 3 Main Options for Kyiv - Spaniel > .
22-11-22 Can Ruscia's [Press Gang] Mobilization Make a Difference? - T&P > .
22-11-6 Pootin, Patrushev, Kovalchuk, Co19 ⇒ Ztupidity (subs) - Katz > .
22-10-26 The winter war in Ukraine - Anders Puck Nielsen > .

Thursday, October 20, 2022

22-10-20 Truss Resigns □

22-11-11 Great Britain: Descent Into Chaos | Truss to Sunak | My Take > .
22-12-30 Most disappointing politicians - VisPol > .
22-12-13 Rishi Sunak's first 50 days as PM - comparison to Truss - Times > .

Rishi Sunak (born 12 May 1980) is a British politician who has served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom since 25 October 2022 and Leader of the Conservative Party since 24 October 2022. Sunak served as Chancellor of the Exchequer from 2020 to 2022 and Chief Secretary to the Treasury from 2019 to 2020, and he has been Member of Parliament (MP) for Richmond (Yorks) since 2015.

Sunak was born in Southampton to parents of Indian descent who migrated to Britain from East Africa in the 1960s. He was educated at Winchester College, studied philosophy, politics and economics (PPE) at Lincoln College, Oxford, and earned an MBA from Stanford University as a Fulbright Scholar. While at Stanford, he met his future wife Akshata Murty, the daughter of Indian billionaire N. R. Narayana Murthy of Infosys. After graduating, Sunak worked for Goldman Sachs and later as a partner at the hedge fund firms The Children's Investment Fund Management and Theleme Partners.

Sunak was elected to the House of Commons for Richmond in North Yorkshire at the 2015 general election, succeeding William Hague. Sunak supported Brexit in the 2016 referendum on EU membership. He was appointed to Theresa May's second government as Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Local Government in the 2018 reshuffle. He voted three times in favour of May's Brexit withdrawal agreement. After May resigned, Sunak supported Boris Johnson's campaign to become Conservative leader. After Johnson became Prime Minister, Sunak was appointed Chief Secretary to the Treasury. Sunak replaced Sajid Javid as Chancellor of the Exchequer after Javid's resignation in the February 2020 cabinet reshuffle. As Chancellor, Sunak was prominent in the government's financial response to the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic impact, including the Coronavirus Job Retention and Eat Out to Help Out schemes. He resigned as chancellor in July 2022, followed by Johnson's resignation amid a government crisis.

Sunak stood in the Conservative party leadership election to replace Johnson, and lost the members' vote to Liz Truss. After Truss's resignation amid a government crisis, Sunak was elected unopposed as Leader of the Conservative Party on 24 October 2022. He was appointed Prime Minister by King Charles III, the first to be appointed during his reign, a day later, becoming the first British Asian and Hindu to hold that position.

Sunday, October 16, 2022

Bear Traps

22-10-17 Traps for Putin | Galeotti's Times article (subs) - Katz > .
23-12-22 P00ti's War: Killer Instinct - NBC > .
23-11-4 Ruscia's Combat Compliance Problem - Icarus > .
23-9-15 Ordered Mobilized | P00ti's Ruscian Subclasses (subs) - Katz > .
23-9-2 When the Elites Will Topple P00ti (subs) - Katz > .
23-8-30 Fear is the new normal in Russian politics - Anders > .
23-8-29 Dictatorships: From Spin to Fear | Ruscist Regression (subs) - Katz > .
23-7-13 What's Next For Ruscia After Wagner's Mercenary Revolt - CNBC > .
23-7-2 Is Vladimir P00tin’s power coming to an end? | 60 Min Aus > .
23-5-13 [Ztupidity: P00, Babitchkas, Prickozhin, Fodder, nukes, Xi] - CBC > .
23-4-9 Galeotti: Ultra-nationalism versus P00ti - Times > .
23-3-15 Timothy Snyder on reasons for ICC "WAR CRIMES" decision > .
23-3-17 What makes the Wagner PMC effective - Def & Geo > .
23-3-5 Wagner Group, Russian PMCs & Ukraine - Hx, R-U - Perun > .
23-3-1 [Seven Losses of P00tin: How to Fail Ztupidly as Dicktator - Matters > .
22-12-16 3 reasons why Pootin started the ztupid war (subs) - Katz > .

1: Battlefield 
There's v little scope for Putin to win back momentum, even with the mobilised reservists. The missiles strikes on cities may assuage the hawks but has no strategic value. Indeed, burns through dwindling stocks that will be needed later.
 
2: Political 
Putin used to be able to play hawks and technocrats against each other. Now, he is having to swing between them, pleasing neither.
23-9-12 P00’s threats to Britain = ‘political manoeuvring’ | Galeotti - Times > .23-4-25 Mark Galeotti - P00 has Defied Predictions of Analysts and Media - SC > .
 
3: Social Contract 
Putin established implicit social contracts over war with both masses ('we'll be at war but it won't really affect most of you') and elites. Now he's having to break both 

4: Disengagement
Elites increasingly regard centre as a threat/problem and focus on own interests. Striking parallels to what happened in USSR with Afghan War. SledKom reporting increased embezzlement

5: Leverage 
Centre needs regions, to keep masses in line, raise volunteer bns, rebuild conquered cities. Gives some leverage for own ends - tragedy is those out for own interests get more hearing from Kremlin than those trying to defend those of their regions 

6: Gangsterism 
Increased signs of lateral competition, including these mysterious deaths, which are more likely business rivalries than anything to do with Kremlin. People hunkering down or getting aggressive, further degrading system effectiveness. 

7: Systemic 
Hard to tackle any of the above, especially as they connect and reinforce each other. Together, making system harder to manage but above all less effective. 
Polit system deliberately unstable, gave Putin scope to retain control through divide and rule. Doesn't work well when boss distracted or weakened. And he is, both. 


[I'd add 8. Misunderstanding and Underestimating the West.]

Saturday, October 15, 2022

Zaporozhye Counteroffensive

22-10-15 Zaporozhye Counteroffensive? The Belarus Threat [Mapped] - gtbt > .
23-5-7 Russia and Nuclear Weapons. Russian Crimes - Anna > .
23-1-21 Orcine "Grand Offensive Goes Terribly Wrong" | Reporting > .
22-11-23 Kherson Retreat & Winter Prospects [War Mapped] - gtbt > .
22-11-22 Where Will Ukraine Strike Next? 3 Main Options for Kyiv - Spaniel > .
22-10-21 Response if Russia uses a nuclear weapon in Ukraine? - J K-L > .
22-10-20 Ukraine Continues Attacking - Russian Invasion DOC - K&G > .
22-10-18 Flight | Demoralization | Historic Defeats vs. Pooti (subs) - Katz > .

sī vīs pācem, parā bellum

igitur quī dēsīderat pācem praeparet bellum    therefore, he who desires peace, let him prepare for war sī vīs pācem, parā bellum if you wan...