Showing posts sorted by date for query Costs of Ageing. Sort by relevance Show all posts
Showing posts sorted by date for query Costs of Ageing. Sort by relevance Show all posts

Wednesday, May 4, 2022

Gaming Alternatives

22-5-4 Ten Ways the Ukraine-Russia War Could End - Spaniel > .
23-11-17 America's 3 New Nukes (weapons they counter) - Sandboxx > .
23-10-19 [R-U & NoXious XIR Axis behind Hamas atrocities] - DiD > .
23-9-10 Industrial Competition & Consolidation, Military Procurement - Perun > .
23-9-2 When the Elites Will Topple P00ti (subs) - Katz > .
23-8-29 Dictatorships: From Spin to Fear | Ruscist Regression (subs) - Katz > .
23-8-20 NATO's Rearmament & Spending - NATO's R-U Response - Perun > .
23-8-15 Oppenheimer's nuclear warnings more relevant than ever - Caspian > .
23-5-13 [Ztupidity: P00, Babitchkas, Prickozhin, Fodder, nukes, Xi] - CBC > .
23-5-13 [P00pagandistic manipulation and public opinion] (subs) - Katz > .
23-4-16 R-U Hybrid Warfare: P00paganda, cyber, hybrid methods - Perun > .
23-2-22 How Ukraine Saved Kyiv: Ruscian Missteps, Ukrainian Ingenuity - Spaniel > .
23-2-10 Political Apoothy | Blame Game, Coping Strategies (subs) - Katz > .
23-2-9 Russians vs Ruzzians - "Public" Opinion re Pooti - Times > .
23-2-5 Scary Stalinism vs Pathetic Pootinism [electioneering] (subs) - Katz > .
23-2-3 [Demented Krumblin Conspiracy Poopaganda] (subs) - Katz > .
23-2-3 Fiona Hill - NATO = Barrier to Pooti's Imperial Ambitions - SC > .
23-1-29 Ruscist Information Warfare - LIES, Confusion, Credulity - Perun > .
23-1-26 Ruscist poopaganda 0 : Ukrainian propaganda 1 - Forces > .
23-1-24 Pooti's Ztupid R-U Miscalculation: Self-Inflicted Disaster - Spaniel > .
23-1-22 Politics Can Destroy Armies: Factionalism & R-U War - Perun > .
23-1-18 What will end the war in Ukraine? - Binkov > .
23-5-14 Month 10 | Fake News: Ruscian Poopaganda for Beginners | ARTE > .
22-12-18 Poopaganda calls for "people's war" | [Message Shift] (subs) > .
22-12-14 Failing, Backfiring Ruscist Poopaganda (subs) - Katz > .
22-11-27 Poopaganda: Soviet Future Faking to "Correct Past" (subs) - MK > .
22-10-21 Response if Russia uses a nuclear weapon in Ukraine? - J K-L > .
22-10-7 What If Pootin Nukes Ukraine? - OBF > .
22-9-4 6 Months of Ukraine War - Economics, Endurance, Energy War - Perun > .
22-5-26 Russia Unlikely to Rise Up Against Putin - Complete History > .
Proxy Warfare 
R-U - Latest Map 2022 - αλλο >> .

This video covers ten of the most important possibilities, ranging from a complete Russian victory, to a Ukrainian upset, to World War III.
0:18 Afghanistan Syndrome
1:41 Putin Removed from Office
2:42 Victory Day "Victory"
4:20 Putin Gambles for Resurrection
6:08 Negotiated Settlement
7:13 Zelensky Eliminated
8:13 Complete Military Defeat of Ukraine
9:27 Ukraine Destroyed
10:35 It Doesn't
12:10 World War III

Causes?
0:00 Outline
1:19 Separatist Regions
3:54 Crimean Land Bridge
5:02 Russian Irredentism
6:42 East-West Rivalry
7:49 Energy
9:36 Water
10:34 Nazis
12:20 Substantive Explanations Are Half-Causes
12:54 Visualizing War's Expected Outcome (LINES ON MAPS)
14:21 Costs Incentivize Bargaining
15:09 Bargaining over Oil
17:00 Bargaining over Autonomy
17:34 Why War Is Puzzling
18:52 Preventive War and Shifting Power
21:00 Preemptive War and First Strikes
24:20 Uncertainty and Miscalculation
26:24 Rational, Unitary Actor Explanations for War
27:05 Irrationality
29:39 Personal Benefits
31:28 Substantive Cases and War Termination
32:57 Leadership Change
36:36 Stopping Power Shifts
39:52 Information Convergence
42:29 Endgame

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Tuesday, August 31, 2021

Cold War 2

21-4-9 Cold War II—Just How Dangerous Is China? [bullying CCP] - Hoover > .
24-5-14 Calder Walton's "Spies": Century-long East-West Espionage War - SiCu > .
23-12-2 Xina's Modern Military - Big, Imperialistic, Unproven - Armchair > .
23-11-17 America's 3 New Nukes (weapons they counter) - Sandboxx > .
23-10-24 [PooXi, P00ti Secrets at BRI Forum: NoXious World Order - Insight > .
23-9-14 Hx Japan vs Xina: Why Xina and Japan are headed to war - BuBa > .
23-8-30 Internet Backbone = Hidden Infrastructure - B1M > .
23-8-29 Dictatorships: From Spin to Fear | Ruscist Regression (subs) - Katz > .
23-8-25 How Xi secured power by reforming Xina’s military - Lei > .
23-8-17 [Twisted] History Book | [Lying] High School P00paganda (subs) - Katz > .
23-8-7 Xina's Reliance On Western Innovation | John Lee > .
23-8-5 New Ċold Ŵar? With Robert Kaplan | Intelligence Squared > .
23-7-29 Taiwan: Japanese & US Moves | Update > .
23-7-9 How Wars End - Negotiations, Coercion, War Termination Theory - Perun > .
23-5-1 Australia’s nuclear submarines enough to deter Xina? | ABC > .
23-4-16 R-U Hybrid Warfare: P00paganda, cyber, hybrid methods - Perun > .
23-4-6 Technology Disrupting the Intelligence World | Amy Zegart - fa > .
23-3-18 Sociopaths have useful idiots, not "friendship" - Warographics > .
23-3-13 Yi Fuxian: The Chinese Century Is Already Over - Update > .
23-3-8 US-China: Qin & Conflict Warning - Update > .
23-3-8 [Slumping] Xina Blaming & Threatening USA - Focus > .
23-2-28 Xina & ROC war prep: martial law, nuclear emergency, wartime controls > .
23-2-8 Ruscia’s Zociopathy | Once “decent” people провоенный (subs) - Katz > .
23-2-3 [Demented Krumblin Conspiracy Poopaganda] (subs) - Katz > .
23-1-29 Ruscist Information Warfare - LIES, Confusion, Credulity - Perun > .
23-1-24 Pooti's Ztupid R-U Miscalculation: Self-Inflicted Disaster - Spaniel > .
23-1-19 Kremlin's Bizarre Ideological Mission for 2023 - Vlad > .
23-1-12 Stories for children vs aggressive poopaganda (subs) - Katz > .
22-12-28 Beware: Soft Ruscist Poopaganda and Fake YTers = Danger - Anna > .
22-12-20 US military in Pacific to prevent Xinese invasion of Taiwan - PBS > .
22-12-18 Poopaganda calls for "people's war" | [Message Shift] (subs) > .
22-11-27 Poopaganda: Soviet Future Faking to "Correct Past" (subs) - MK > .
22-11-19 G20 '22 Biden-Xi meeting = "start of a new Cold War" - Times > .
22-11-19 Splinternet - Xina 1st of 35+ Countries Leaving Global Internet - Tech > .
22-11-17 Poopagandistic malice | [Demented] reactions to Kherson (subs) - Katz > .
22-11-11 Fortress Xina - Xi's Plans for World Domination - laowhy86 > .
22-10-31 How could war between Xina & Taiwan play out? | Four Corners > .
22-11-1 "Overreach" | Susan Shirk, Kevin Rudd | Asia Society > .
22-10-27 Xina is "Pretty Much Screwed" - laowhy86 > .
22-10-24 Xi's [Probably Unachievable] Goals - Digging > . 
22-10-11 Dear Elon, Please SHUT UP - laowhy86 > .
22-10-11 Condeleeza Rice - Xina and Taiwan - Hoover > .
22-10-7 What If Pootin Nukes Ukraine? - OBF > .
22-9-24 Xina's and Australia’s power plays in the Pacific - Caspian > .
22-8-26 How Xina wages an unseen war for strategic influence | FT > .
22-8-25 Xi vs Li: Xina’s dual-leadership after the 20th Party Congress? - Lei > .
22-8-18 Ruscism: World's Last Colonial Empire: Collapse or Survival - gtbt > .
22-8-15 Taiwan could repel invasion; wargamed cost high to Taiwan and US > .
22-8-3 Economic Disaster is Already Here - Peter Zeihan - Triggernometry > .
22-8-4 Situation Zoom: Pelosi Visits Taiwan | Goodfellows - Hoover > .
22-8-4 Nancy Peolosi’s trip ⇝ XXP and Xina-Taiwan relations - Lei > .
22-7-21 Why Every NATO Member Joined (Why Others Haven't) - Spaniel > .
China is a nation with 1.3 billion people, an economy projected to become bigger than the United States’ in just a few years, and a rapidly growing military. Hong Kong has already fallen under its authority. Meanwhile, Taiwan looms in the distance—with a population of almost 24 million, it’s a technology hub and the world’s leading manufacturer of microchips and other items essential to high tech. What are China’s ambitions toward Taiwan? And if they are ominous, what should the US response to Chinese aggression be? To answer these questions, we’re joined by two experts: former national security advisor (and current Hoover Institution senior fellow) H. R. McMaster and former US deputy national security advisor (and current Hoover distinguished visiting fellow) Matthew Pottinger. They also discuss the Biden administration’s recent diplomatic encounters with China, and which countries might be allies in a conflict with China—and which ones would not be.

● Future? ..


The defence ministry said the aircraft, including nuclear-capable bombers, entered its air defence identification zone (ADIZ) in two waves. Taiwan responded by scrambling its jets and deploying missile systems. China sees democratic Taiwan as a breakaway province, but Taiwan sees itself as a sovereign state. Taiwan has been complaining for more than a year about repeated missions by China's air force near the island.

Australia, NZ

Costs

Geostrategic Projection
European Geostrategic Projection ..

Resource Conflicts

Russia


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Tuesday, October 25, 2016

Demographic Engineering Fail

22-11-21 Xina’s future alarming: Many provinces have negative birth rates - Rev > .
22-10-22 Xina's Population Has Peaked, 800 Million less by 2100 - gtbt > .
Median Age in Each Region (map) | 1950 - 2020 - geopop > .China’s biggest problem? Not enough people for future - VisPol > .00:00​ Intro
01:03​ One couple, one child
04:23​ Breaking the natural balance
08:09​ What about retirement?
11:25​ Little emperors
15:16​ Outro

Why Are Millions of Chinese Kids Parenting Themselves? - Atlantic > .




Demography (from prefix demo- from Ancient Greek δῆμος (dēmos) meaning 'the people', and -graphy from γράφω (graphō) meaning 'writing, description or measurement') is the statistical study of populations, especially human beings.

Demographic analysis can cover whole societies or groups defined by criteria such as education, nationality, religion, and ethnicity. Educational institutions usually treat demography as a field of sociology, though there are a number of independent demography departments.

Formal demography limits its object of study to the measurement of population processes, while the broader field of social demography or population studies also analyses the relationships between economic, social, cultural, and biological processes influencing a population.

The Populations can change through three processes: fertility, mortality, and migration. Fertility involves the number of children that women have and is to be contrasted with fecundity (a woman's childbearing potential). Mortality is the study of the causes, consequences, and measurement of processes affecting death to members of the population. Demographers most commonly study mortality using the Life Table, a statistical device that provides information about the mortality conditions (most notably the life expectancy) in the population.

Migration refers to the movement of persons from a locality of origin to a destination place across some predefined, political boundary. Migration researchers do not designate movements 'migrations' unless they are somewhat permanent. Thus demographers do not consider tourists and travellers to be migrating. While demographers who study migration typically do so through census data on place of residence, indirect sources of data including tax forms and labour force surveys are also important. 
  • Crude birth rate, the annual number of live births per 1,000 people.
  • The general fertility rate, the annual number of live births per 1,000 women of childbearing age (often taken to be from 15 to 49 years old, but sometimes from 15 to 44).
  • The age-specific fertility rates, the annual number of live births per 1,000 women in particular age groups (usually age 15–19, 20-24 etc.)
  • The crude death rate, the annual number of deaths per 1,000 people.
  • The infant mortality rate, the annual number of deaths of children less than 1 year old per 1,000 live births.
  • The expectation of life (or life expectancy), the number of years that an individual at a given age could expect to live at present mortality levels.
  • The total fertility rate, the number of live births per woman completing her reproductive life, if her childbearing at each age reflected current age-specific fertility rates.
  • The replacement level fertility, the average number of children women must have in order to replace the population for the next generation. For example, the replacement level fertility in the US is 2.11.
  • The gross reproduction rate, the number of daughters who would be born to a woman completing her reproductive life at current age-specific fertility rates.
  • The net reproduction ratio is the expected number of daughters, per newborn prospective mother, who may or may not survive to and through the ages of childbearing.
  • A stable population, one that has had constant crude birth and death rates for such a long period of time that the percentage of people in every age class remains constant, or equivalently, the population pyramid has an unchanging structure.
  • A stationary population, one that is both stable and unchanging in size (the difference between crude birth rate and crude death rate is zero).
Demography is today widely taught in many universities across the world, attracting students with initial training in social sciences, statistics or health studies. Being at the crossroads of several disciplines such as sociology, economics, epidemiology, geography, anthropology and history, demography offers tools to approach a large range of population issues by combining a more technical quantitative approach that represents the core of the discipline with many other methods borrowed from social or other sciences.
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Sunday, August 10, 2014

Stumbling Economy - XiXiP

21-9-28 Xinese power cuts force factory closures | DW > .
24-5-24 Xina's 3-Child Policy - Recipe for Social Instability? Digging > .
24-2-22 Prohibitive Child-Rearing Costs in Xina - Demographic Disaster - Update > .
23-12-18 Xina's Declining Demographic Destiny - Update > .
23-12-11 India Rising? Xina Reversing? Asian Tigers - gtbt > .
23-10-20 X's Population Decline: Flawed Economic Model, Low Productivity - Dig > .
23-10-13 Xina's plunging birthrate - Update > .
23-9-29 Decoding P00ti-PooXi blueprint for NoXious World Order | DW > .
23-9-24 $6.5T Problem: BRI, Unproductive, Decaying Infrastructure | EcEx > .
23-9-7 Xi's Mess: Wartime Economy Rising, Imminent Societal Collapse > .
23-9-1 China miscounted its population, now the economy is in crisis | ABC Aus > .
23-8-22 Evidence of XiXiPee's war preparations - Observer > .
23-8-9 Global Aging Institute: Xina's Accelerating Demographic Decline - Update > .
23-7-7 Xina, Japan - Impact of Demographic Decline - Real > .
23-6-29 New Chinese Demographic Data = Population COLLAPSE | PZ > .
23-4-16 Logan Wright Grasping Shadows X-Ec 1 - Update > . 2 > .
23-3-13 Yi Fuxian: The Chinese Century Is Already Over - Update > .
23-3-6 Big Xinese Economic & Financial Updates | Xina Military Spending - Update > .
23-1-20 Xina's 1st population drop in six decades - demographic crisis. | Digging > .
23-1-20 Xi's Biggest Errors - Kevin Rudd | Update > .
23-1-17 Xina Records First Population Drop in Decades | Focus > .
23-1-17 Xina's population falls for first time since 1961 - BBC > .
22-12-5 Xina’s One-Child Policy Created Millions of Illegal Children - Uncensored > .
22-11-27 Dragon's Claw: Xina's Next 10 Years - Kamome > . skip > .
22-10-27 Xina is "Pretty Much Screwed" - laowhy86 > .
22-10-25 Xina's Q3 details - Update > .
22-10-4 Xina's Demographic Crisis & Ageing Population - Update > .
22-9-24 Xina's and Australia’s power plays in the Pacific - Caspian > .
22-8-25 Xi vs Li: Xina’s dual-leadership after the 20th Party Congress? - Lei > .
22-8-3 Housing Crisis Pulls Down China’s Huge Steel Industry | Pelosi | Update > .
22-4-21 Fake data re Chinese economy: GDP, import-export, unemployment - Lei > .
22-2-18 How The One Child Policy Destroyed China - Versed > .
22-2-15 China’s Vulnerability | Peter Zeihan @ Fort Benning - geopop > .
22-1-23 China’s Domestic Drivers | Kevin Rudd - geopop > .
21-9-4 China's worsening electricity shortage severely impacts the economy - Insights > .

Comment : "I love this woman, ever since I read her book. Here's a quote: "As the choices on the path forward become starker, the government leans more determinedly on its most powerful tool of governance: its ability to quickly amass and deploy the resources of a massive unified nation. So effective has been the use of credit to stall and cover over problems associated with China’s antiquated political system that it has proven to be irresistible. For the whole of the 2000s to date, China’s has been the most capital-intensive economy in the world, with the result that, by 2013, China’s domestic debt had reached somewhere between 200-250% of GDP. At this writing, one unit of GDP growth requires roughly three units of credit growth—a ratio that has worsened dramatically since before the global financial crisis in 2008. China is like a man who has burned all the trees around his house to keep warm and now is tossing his furniture into the stove. Financial resources, in the end, are limited, and the acceleration in credit to forestall what inevitably must be a sharp recession cannot last much longer." Stevenson-Yang, Anne. "China Alone: The Emergence from and Potential Return to Isolation"
.......
A power crunch in some parts of China has shut down factories and left households without electricity. The shortages come as coal prices rise and in some cases because of efforts to meet official energy use targets.

21-9-27 Power cuts hit homes in north-east China: Residents in north-east China are experiencing unannounced power cuts, as an electricity shortage which initially hit factories spreads to homes. People living in Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces have complained on social media about the lack of heating, and lifts and traffic lights not working. Local media said the cause was a rise in coal prices leading to short supply. The country is highly dependent on coal for power. One power company said it expected the power cuts to last until spring next year, and that unexpected outages would become "the new normal". Its post, however, was later deleted. The energy shortage at first affected manufacturers across the country, many of whom have had to curb or stop production in recent weeks.

21-9-28 Goldman Sachs cuts China growth forecast over power outages: Goldman Sachs has become the latest banking giant to cut its growth forecast for China, as the country struggles with energy shortages. It now expects the world's second largest economy to expand by 7.8% this year, down from its previous prediction of 8.2%. The firm says major industrial output cuts caused by power outages add "significant downside pressures". It estimates as much as 44% of China's industrial activity has been affected. The power supply crunch, caused by environmental controls, supply constraints and soaring prices, has left some factories and homes without electricity. The energy shortage at first affected manufacturers across the country, many of whom have had to curb or stop production in recent weeks. A document seen by the BBC shows that the largest port in northern China at Tianjin has been affected by a shortage of electricity. Power rationing for cranes that lift cargo between ships and the shore is expected to continue until the end of the week.

Comment: The largest producer of coal having a coal shortage is not as weird as it seems. There is a wide variation in coal types and some are better for some purposes, than others. The two main types of coal are thermal coal and metallurgical coal. The main difference is the type of ash. Thermal coal produces fly ash, which is basically dust particles that do not stick together and form lumps. Metallurgical coal has ash that does clump up and this is helpful for scavenging impurities while smelting metals. In the bad old days of workers shoveling coal into furnaces, metallurgical coal was known for causing 'clinkers', glassy deposits on the furnace grate that would need to be regularly removed with hammer and chisel. The clinkers from burning metallurgical coal to raise steam was bad enough when all that the clinkers did was limit the flow of air through the grate. In a modern coal-fired generating station, the clinkers form on the boiler tubes and restrict the transfer of heat from the burning coal to the water that becomes steam and removing the deposits is nightmarishly expensive (in time, if not money). Along with whether the coal is thermal coal or metallurgical coal, different types of coal also liberate different amounts of heat per unit mass. Ocean transport being very inexpensive, even over long distances, it is more economical to design a powerplant to run on high heat content coal that does not form clinkers , from across the sea, than it is to design a powerplant to run on local coal of a lower heat content that does form clinkers.


"In many ways, China's ongoing electricity crunch is a mess of its own making. It's due in part, for example, to an overly rigid regulatory system that compels local officials to act a bit too aggressively in complying with Beijing's diktats – as has happened in this case in response to power consumption quotas handed down from the central government – even when it becomes abundantly clear that doing so is a bad idea. It's also partially a result of dwindling reserves of thermal coal, which accounts for more than half of China's energy mix.
 
One cause of the depleted inventories is the ban China imposed last year on imported coal from Australia. It did this to pressure Australia on a number of issues, ranging from Canberra's criticism over Beijing's initial handling of the COVID-19 outbreak to Canberra's hearty embrace of the Quad. Whatever the goal of the ban, it led to ships full of Australian coal being stranded just outside of Chinese ports at a time when blackouts were beginning to roll across the country. (China has since quietly allowed the cargos to be offloaded.) And it's forced China to race to find alternative suppliers on the fly, including from places more difficult and expensive to reach like western Kazakhstan. It's also contributed to the surge in prices globally. Coal is a highly fungible commodity, so the disruption is almost certainly temporary, but painful nonetheless."

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Thursday, May 31, 2012

⧫ Demographic Predictions

2022+ Demographic Projections ..
2023 Population Distribution ..
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Saturday, May 26, 2012

China's One Child Policy

23-9-1 China miscounted its population, now the economy is in crisis | ABC Aus > .23-6-29 New Chinese Demographic Data = Population COLLAPSE | PZ > .
22-12-5 China’s One-Child Policy Created Millions of Illegal Children - Uncensored > .22-8-17 Xina already in absolute population decline = coffins > cradles - Digging > .
22-4-14 From matchmaking to curbing abortions; state “family planning” - Lei > .
Chaotic times are coming and will last for another generation ~ decoupling, deglobalization, and need for consolidation in Europe.


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sī vīs pācem, parā bellum

igitur quī dēsīderat pācem praeparet bellum    therefore, he who desires peace, let him prepare for war sī vīs pācem, parā bellum if you wan...

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