Thursday, June 16, 2022

Middle East - Powermongering

23-11-10 Qatar Angling to Be World’s Lead Hostage Negotiator | WSJ > .23-8-6 Turkish Strategy & R-U War - Arms, Economics - Perun > . skip > .22-12-17 How Qatar uses the World Cup for nation building - Caspian > .22-12-14 Xi’s Saudi trip & Sino-Arab relations; X-¥ oil vs petrodollar - Lei > .22-11-25 Why Saudi Arabia is Gladly Helping Russia - T&P > .
22-6-30 Wonky Saudi-US relationship - VisPol > .

02:10 The New Generation / Saudi Arabia & UAE
10:44 Sultan in crisis / Turkey
16:35 Iranian Dilemmas / Iran
21:19 Israel and the Syrian Triangle / Israel
23:05 Arab Spring 2.0
26:05 Outro

Why Arabs Lose Wars :: Middle East Quarterly .

Why Arabs Lose Wars > . Why Arabs Can't Fight - The Arab Culture Theory:

The Theory asserts that the poor performance of Arab armies in battle is caused by culturally-regular behavior and patterns of thought among Arab military personnel, particularly junior officers. It focuses on a number of particular traits which sociologists, anthropologists, and political psychologists of the Middle East agree are salient elements of the dominant Arab culture.

  • Promotion of conformity with group norms over innovation and independent thinking.
  • Promotion of a rather extreme deference to authority which discourages initiative among subordinates.
  • Promotion of avoidance at all costs, of shame -- discouraging an individual from accepting responsibility and encouraging the manipulation of information to conceal shameful acts.
  • Promotion of  fierce loyalty to the group which encourages individuals to shield friends and relatives from from shame and reinforces the emphasis on conformity.
  • Regarding manual labor as shameful, and considering technical and scientific work as a form of manual labor.

Arab Culture Theory predicts that these patterns of culturally-regular behavior will produce identical patterns of behavior on the battlefield which are crippling to Arab armies and air forces. These patterns of military ineffectiveness can be boiled down to four pervasive problems:

  • Militaries display severe problems with tactical leadership. Junior officers demonstrate little initiative, creativity, flexibility, or capacity for independent action in combat. Thus ground and air forces appear incapable of fighting maneuver battles or improvising ad hoc operations in the heat of battle.
  • Militaries suffer paralysis due to poor information flows. Junior officers and enlisted personnel regularly dissemble, exaggerate, obfuscate, and lie to conceal mistakes and unpleasant news, no matter how large or small.
  • Military personnel possess very limited technical skills. As a result, armed forces can rarely take full advantage of their weapons and equipment. 
  • Because Arab technicians do not understand how to properly care for sophisticated machinery, militaries have difficulty maintaining their equipment. Few military operators understand the need for constant preventive maintenance. [Rather than addressing the problem, militaries blame the suppliers.]

Tuesday, June 14, 2022

Verge of Collapse?

22-6-14 How Russia could collapse (again) - CaspianReport > .
24-9-4 Iran and Israel's Long and Complicated History | Quillette > .
23-12-22 P00ti's War: Killer Instinct - NBC > .
23-11-4 [Ruscia Wants to Destroy] International Rules-based Order - Kuzio > .
23-10-25 NoXious World (Dis)Order 2 - Sergey Lavrov - STG > .
23-10-17 H-I War Israel | Unity & Russian Resistance =/= Hamas (subs) - Katz > .
23-10-14 [Nefarious Hybrid XIR "want to destroy America" Plot] - Versed > .
23-10-2 [Ztupidity: Mobiks' Forever Fight, Convicts' Unleashed Terror] (subs) - Katz > .
23-9-15 Ordered Mobilized | P00ti's Ruscian Subclasses (subs) - Katz > .
23-9-2 When the Elites Will Topple P00ti (subs) - Katz > .
23-8-30 Fear is the new normal in Russian politics - Anders > .
23-8-29 Dictatorships: From Spin to Fear | Ruscist Regression (subs) - Katz > .
23-8-17 [Twisted] History Book | [Lying] High School P00paganda (subs) - Katz > .
23-7-25 Why US Troops Fought Wagner Mercenaries in Syria - T&P > .
23-7-19 Mutiny, Insurgency, Arrests, Economic Implosion - Konstantin Samoilov > .
23-6-5 [De-NaZifying Ruscia | P00ti's Self-Serving Scam] (subs) - Katz > .
23-5-13 [Ztupidity: P00, Babitchkas, Prickozhin, Fodder, nukes, Xi] - CBC > .
23-5-13 [P00pagandistic manipulation and public opinion] (subs) - Katz > .
23-4-16 R-U Hybrid Warfare: P00paganda, cyber, hybrid methods - Perun > .
23-3-15 Timothy Snyder on reasons for ICC "WAR CRIMES" decision > .
23-3-1 [Seven Losses of P00tin: How to Fail Ztupidly as Dicktator - Matters > .
23-2-22 How Ukraine Saved Kyiv: Ruscian Missteps, Ukrainian Ingenuity - Spaniel > .
23-2-20 Record Deficit Heralds the Collapse of the Russian Economy - gtbt > .
23-2-10 Political Apoothy | Blame Game, Coping Strategies (subs) - Katz > .
23-2-9 Russians vs Ruzzians - "Public" Opinion re Pooti - Times > .
23-2-8 Ruscia’s Warpaint | Once “decent” people провоенный (subs) - Katz > .
23-2-5 Scary Stalinism vs Pathetic Pootinism [electioneering] (subs) - Katz > .
23-1-29 Ruscist Information Warfare - LIES, Confusion, Credulity - Perun > .
23-1-26 Ruscist poopaganda 0 : Ukrainian propaganda 1 - Forces > .
23-1-24 Pooti's Ztupid R-U Miscalculation: Self-Inflicted Disaster - Spaniel > .
23-1-22 Politics Can Destroy Armies: Factionalism & R-U War - Perun > .
23-1-19 Kremlin's Bizarre Ideological Mission for 2023 - Vlad > .
23-1-18 What will end the war in Ukraine? - Binkov > .
23-1-12 Stories for children vs aggressive poopaganda (subs) - Katz > .
22-12-28 Beware: Soft Ruscist Poopaganda and Fake YTers = Danger - Anna > .
22-12-18 Poopaganda calls for "people's war" | [Message Shift] (subs) > .
22-12-16 3 reasons why Pootin started the ztupid war (subs) - Katz > .
22-12-14 Failing, Backfiring Ruscist Poopaganda (subs) - Katz > .
22-12-10 Sweden's joining NATO would crush Russian power - Caspian > .
22-12-8 History Behind Russia's Expansionary Foreign Policy - Kotkin | Policy > .
22-12-8 War in Ukraine 'has activated the West', expert says - Forces > .
22-11-22 Why [the Ruscian Federation] cannot become a democracy - Caspian > .
22-12-5 Russians tired of poopaganda | Gardening beats Soloviev (subs) - MK > .
22-11-17 Poopagandistic malice | [Demented] reactions to Kherson (subs) - Katz > .
22-11-6 Pootin, Patrushev, Kovalchuk, Co19Ztupidity (subs) - Katz > .
22-10-16 The most pointless war of the century (subs) - Katz > .
22-10-7 What If Pootin Nukes Ukraine? - OBF > .
22-9-22 How many troops can Russia really mobilize? - Binkov > .
22-9-4 6 Months of Ukraine War - Economics, Endurance, Energy War - Perun > .
22-8-20 How Long Will It Take Russia to Rebuild Its Military? - CoCa > .
22-8-3 Economic Disaster is Already Here - Peter Zeihan - Triggernometry > .
22-8-1 Why Russia Fails at Soft Power (ft. CIS and CSTO) - Mac > .
22-12-15 Mahsa Amini protests - Islamic Republic of Iran Fights to Live On - gtbt > .
22-7-19 Central Asia ⇌ Russia, China, Iran, Turkey, USA - gtbt > .
Proxy Warfare 
moriēns ursus - pro libertate >> .

Sunday, June 12, 2022

Dystopian 2122 / Optimistic 2122

22-6-12 Year 2122. 100 days of war, 100 years after the war - gtbt > .
24-1-26 Saudi Arabia's Catastrophic "Iran" Problem - Hindsight > .
23-11-19 Niall Ferguson: How Civilizations Collapse - Triggernometry > .
23-11-11 [Out Parasites! Nikolai Patrushev's NoXious World Order] (subs) - Katz > .
23-11-4 [Ruscia Wants to Destroy] International Rules-based Order - Kuzio > .
23-10-25 Understanding NoXious World (Dis)Order - Kotkin | Hoover > .
23-10-25 NoXious World (Dis)Order 2 - Sergey Lavrov - STG > .
23-10-2 [Ztupidity: Mobiks' Forever Fight, Convicts' Unleashed Terror] (subs) - Katz > .
23-9-29 Decoding P00ti-PooXi blueprint for NoXious World Order | DW > .
23-9-25 Xi's Transforming Xina [for the worse] - Xina's Changing Trajectory - Dig > .
23-9-2 When the Elites Will Topple P00ti (subs) - Katz > .
23-8-30 Fear is the new normal in Russian politics - Anders > .
23-8-29 Dictatorships: From Spin to Fear | Ruscist Regression (subs) - Katz > .
23-8-17 [Twisted] History Book | [Lying] High School P00paganda (subs) - Katz > .
23-8-11 Saudi Arabia's Challenging Geography - Real > .
23-7-25 Why US Troops Fought Wagner Mercenaries in Syria - T&P > .
23-7-23 Defense Ministry vs Reality | P00pagandistic LIES (subs) - Katz > .
23-7-22 Saudi Arabia’s Catastrophic “Everything” Problem - Real > .
23-7-19 Mutiny, Insurgency, Arrests, Economic Implosion - Konstantin Samoilov > .
23-7-4 P00paganda Bashing Wagner | [0pini0ns reversed] (subs) - Katz > .
23-6-17 Ruscia's Economic Forum: P00ti's hyocrisy & LIES @ SPIEF (subs) - Katz > .
23-6-5 [De-NaZifying Ruscia | P00ti's Self-Serving Scam] (subs) - Katz > .
23-5-13 [Ztupidity: P00, Babitchkas, Prickozhin, Fodder, nukes, Xi] - CBC > .
23-5-13 [P00pagandistic manipulation and public opinion] (subs) - Katz > .
23-4-16 R-U Hybrid Warfare: P00paganda, cyber, hybrid methods - Perun > .
23-3-15 Timothy Snyder on reasons for ICC "WAR CRIMES" decision > .
23-2-22 How Ukraine Saved Kyiv: Ruscian Missteps, Ukrainian Ingenuity - Spaniel > .
23-2-10 Political Apoothy | Blame Game, Coping Strategies (subs) - Katz > .
23-2-8 Ruscia’s Warpaint | Once “decent” people провоенный (subs) - Katz > .
23-2-5 Scary Stalinism vs Pathetic Pootinism [electioneering] (subs) - Katz > .
23-2-3 [Demented Krumblin Conspiracy Poopaganda] (subs) - Katz > .
23-1-22 Politics Can Destroy Armies: Factionalism & R-U War - Perun > .
22-12-16 3 reasons why Pootin started the ztupid war (subs) - Katz > .
22-11-22 Why [the Ruscian Federation] cannot become a democracy - Caspian > .
22-12-5 Russians tired of poopaganda | Gardening beats Soloviev (subs) - MK > .
22-10-21 Ukraine War at End of the World | Peter Zeihan > .
22-10-16 The most pointless war of the century (subs) - Katz > .
> NATO Militaries >>> NoXious World Order >> XIR >>

Tuesday, May 31, 2022

Paranoid Ruscist Aggression

22-11-22 Why [the Ruscian Federation] cannot become a democracy - Caspian > .
22-11-11 Can Ruscia's [Press Gang] Mobilization Make a Difference? - T&P > .
Proxy Warfare 
R-U - Latest Map - αλλο >> .

Spin Dictator to Fear Authoritarian ..

MAD Vlad the Bad deserves Despensering.

Comment:
The idea of a nuclear threat taboo is false. Nuclear brinkmanship has been around since 1948, such as: 
1. Truman sending B-29s to UK in 1948 Berlin Blockade; 
2. Truman's November 30 1950 press conference about use of nuclear weapons in Korea; 3. Eisenhower's secret threats to China in 1953 which lead to the Korean armistice; 
4. Dulles offering to use 2 tactical nukes in 1954 to save the French at Dien Bien Phu; 
5. Threats to use nukes against China in 1955 during first Quemoy crisis (China vs Taiwan); 
6. "Diplomatic use of the Bomb" (Nixon's term) to deter USSR during Suez Crisis; 
7 and 8. The 1958 and 1961 Berlin crises; 
9. The 1961 Cuban missile crisis; 10. Public reports of Joint Chiefs of Staff advising Johnson of likely need for nuclear weapon use to save the marines at Khe Sanh in 1968; 11. Secret threats by Nixon to deter USSR attacking the Chinese nuclear capability 1969-1970; 
12. Nixon's secret threats of nuclear attacks on North Vietnam from 1969 to 1972; 
13. Nixon's threats (according to him to deter Soviet response to possible Chines intervention against India in Indo-Pakistan war of 1971 (possibly also to push India to end the war); 
14. Nixon ordering DEFCON 3 to deter USSR during 1973 Arab-Israeli War; 
15. Ford ordering DEFCON 3 in 1976 over skirmish in Korean DMZ; 
16. 1980 Carter doctrine in the Middle East; 
17. August 1980 secret nuclear warnings to USSR to not invade Iran (it was building up it's military on the border at the time); 
18. Reagan reaffirming Carter Doctrine in January 1981; 
19. Bush Senior threatening nuclear response if Iraq used chemical weapons during Desert Storm; 
20. Clinton secret nuclear threats against North Korea in 1995 over it's development of nuclear weapons; 
21. Public nuclear threats by Defence Secretary Perry against Libya's Tarhuna underground chemical weapons facility in 1996. 

These are just the American examples, but others have also done so: 
Israel loaded nukes onto it's Jericho missiles in 1973; 
Modi and Khan warning each other in 2019 (India v Pakistan); Khrushchev's "We will bury you!" in 1956; 
Stalin about to launch an attack on the West before he died (as he believed one was inevitable anyway); 
Mao's declaration that China could lose 300 million and still win; 
2006 Chirac threatening nuclear attack on any country that used terrorism against France. Reagan pulled back his rhetoric and brinkmanship once he was informed that the USSR actually believed he was about to launch a first strike in 1983 ("The Evil Empire", Exercise Able Archer, the shoot-down of KAL 007, and Operation RYAN - see https://coldwarconversations.com/episode229/ for more information on that dreadful year); 
Reagan truly believed the USSR was an Evil Empire and they truly believed he was a madman about to attack. The USSR so believed the West would launch a decapitation First Strike they developed Perimeter, a dead hand retaliation system, but never warned the West about it (Doctor Strangelove for real). 

There never was a taboo against nuclear weapon threats, except that leaders have always held back on following through due to the assumption of massive worldwide condemnation, but it only takes one lunatic unable to win his trumped up war to decide NOT using them is an even GREATER risk to HIS hold on power. South Africa disarmed in 1989 because it improved their security position in Southern Africa and de Klerk saw they had no useful military value to South Africa. Unfortunately we can't, as a planet, decide the same thing. Nuclear weapons are too powerful a tool for countries to give up, yet if we don't, then sooner or later they will be used again.

Wednesday, May 25, 2022

Bayraktar - Байрактар

Пісня Байрактар > .

➾ 2022 ..

The occupiers came to us in Ukraine,
With the brand new uniform, military vehicles,
But their inventory melted a bit,
Bayraktar... Bayraktar...

Pryyshly okupanty do nas v Ukrayinu Forma novenʹka, voyenni mashyny Ta trokhy poplavyvsya yikh inventar

Прийшли окупанти до нас в Україну
Форма новенька, воєнні машини
Та трохи поплавився їх інвентар
Байрактар… Байрактар…

Russian tankers hid in the bushes,
To sip the fucking shchi with a bast shoe.
But the broth overheated a little bit in the bushes,
Bayraktar... Bayraktar...

Rosiyski tankisty skhovalysʹ v kushchi, Shchob laptem posʹorbaty dovbani shchi Ta trokhy u shchakh perehrivsya navar

Російскі танкісти сховались в кущі,
Щоб лаптем посьорбати довбані щі
Та трохи у щах перегрівся навар
Байрактар… Байрактар…

Sheep came to us from the east
For the "establishment of a great country".
The best shepherd of sheep flocks is
Bayraktar... Bayraktar...

Zi skhodu prypkhalysʹ do nas barany Dlya vastanavlyenʹya velikay strany. Naykrashchiy pastukh baranyachykh otar

Зі сходу припхались до нас барани
Для вастанавлєнья велікай страни.
Найкращій пастух баранячих отар
Байрактар… Байрактар…

Their arguments are all kinds of weapons,
Powerful rockets, machines of iron.
We have a comment on all the arguments
Bayraktar... Bayraktar...

Yikh dovody – vsyake ozbroyenya rizne: Rakety potuzhni, mashyny zalizni. U nas na vsi dovody ye komentar

Їх доводи – всяке озброєня різне:
Ракети потужні, машини залізні.
У нас на всі доводи є коментар -
Байрактар… Байрактар…

They wanted to capture us right away
So we hid a grievance for the orcs.
He makes ghosts out of Russian bandits,
Bayraktar... Bayraktar...

Vony zakhopyty khotily nas zrazu I my zachayily na orkiv obrazu. Z bandytiv rosiysʹkykh robytʹ prymar

Вони захопити хотіли нас зразу
І ми зачаїли на орків образу.
З бандитів російських робить примар
Байрактар… Байрактар…

Russian police is starting a criminal case,
But still does not find a killer of ruschists.
Who is to blame that there is a capercaillie in our field
Bayraktar... Bayraktar...

Rosiyska politsiya spravy zavodytʹ No vbyvtsyu rashystiv niyak ne znakhodytʹ. Khto zh vynen, shcho v nashomu poli hlukhar?

Російска поліція справи заводить
Но вбивцю рашистів ніяк не знаходить.
Хто ж винен, що в нашому полі глухар?
Байрактар… Байрактар…

Байрактар

sī vīs pācem, parā bellum

igitur quī dēsīderat pācem praeparet bellum    therefore, he who desires peace, let him prepare for war sī vīs pācem, parā bellum if you wan...